Which casino would make more money?
Poll
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| | 4 votes (44.44%) | ||
| | 4 votes (44.44%) |
9 members have voted
Changing the chips would be costly and time consuming and probably would not affect one day's payout anyway. Each of those payout figures is a long term percentage having no real meaning in the short term. A casino at 89 percent might actually pay out more jackpots in a day than a casino at 91 percent.
So the casino that gets the most customers putting money into the slots will be more profitable.
Pretend they are exactly identical in every way but the machine settings both in parallel universes identical except for the machine settings. So your answer would be? Edit: they have to be in the same universe because I think I change the question with that extra change.Quote: FleaStiffThe two casinos are utterly indistinguishable to the players. No player can "sense" such a minute "looseness" or "tighness" in slot machines. Most users gripe about tight slots anyway.
Changing the chips would be costly and time consuming and probably would not affect one day's payout anyway. Each of those payout figures is a long term percentage having no real meaning in the short term. A casino at 89 percent might actually pay out more jackpots in a day than a casino at 91 percent.
So the casino that gets the most customers putting money into the slots will be more profitable.
Second edit: They would not change chips because changing chips would be noticeable and the original question states the players wouldn't know, for a fact.
In Excel, I created a simple spreadsheet; two different casinos, one with 90% payback and the other with 89% and 91% on odd and even days respectively. Total money played is 50,000 units. I summed and calculated the income over 365 days. In short, the one casino makes 5500/odd day and 4500/even day, and the constant one makes 5000.
If the income comparison takes place on an odd numbered day, the casino with the varying payback will be, over 365 days, 500 units more than the one with a constant payback. If comparison is on an even numbered day, such as 364 days, the two casinos will be equal.
Mind you, my example isn't the most complex and exciting mathematically involved proof, but I believe it to be accurate. Let's see what everyone else says, too.
This steps out of the identical casino element butQuote: NareedWhich one has the better marketing department? :)
Players don't know because both casinos have server based gaming with no limitations and no need to physically change chips. If server based gaming doesn't get it done, both casinos use neutral magic.Quote: FleaStiffGiven teh time and cost of changing chips... that variable casino gets two hours less play per day on all their slots. And has to pay for atleast five slot techs at thirty grand each a year.
Didn't they just do an experiment on this?Quote: FleaStiffThe two casinos are utterly indistinguishable to the players. No player can "sense" such a minute "looseness" or "tighness" in slot machines.
They were comparing IIRC 85 and 98% machines in the 2013 link from the Canada study. Newer machines seem to do a better job than their predecessors disguising minute changes(x<2% hold differences) in my opinion which is factually based but may not be factual.Quote: AxelWolfDidn't they just do an experiment on this?
Quote: onenickelmiracleThey were comparing IIRC 85 and 98% machines in the 2013 link from the Canada study. Newer machines seem to do a better job than their predecessors disguising minute changes(x<2% hold differences) in my opinion which is factually based but may not be factual.
Right, that's pretty noticeable. I definitely notice the difference from the play money IGT slot games on my computer vs. the same game in the casino.
As for your question, the payout differences might be close to a wash. Unless...the 91% payout days are mostly top heavy for that extra 2% from 89%. If that's the case, then I think the switching the payouts might get more revenue because you sucker more people into possibly being able to win longterm. More variance will greater confuse people on whether this game is still worth playing.
They take them down every other day and don't mention lowering the payout.
(wouldn't work in a real situation though, or at least not very long. Plus I don't think they share such info with each other anyway.)
I wonder. Do gamblers as a whole tend to accept such things as "neutral magic"? Well, perhaps that is grist for a different thread.Quote: onenickelmiracle... both casinos use neutral magic.
If these two server based casinos can be differentiated it would have to be by Madison Avenue generated hype. Our Tray Lizards have bigger boobs than their tray lizards or some thing like that. The average slot player will not sense anything so fine even by subtle clues. Heck, Southpoint made ten percent of their machines looser and do you really think the players the next week made beelines for the new and improved chips?
Slot players sense what 'bang for their buck' they get from when their initial deposit goes bust. It it used to take an hour to lose a hundred bucks and now takes a half hour that is noticeable, but a minute change in the long run payout with no guarantee that variance won't rear its ugly head with random payouts taking place on the high days in a disproportionate manner.
Unless of course the players do it by "neutral magic" and all start wandering next door on the low payout days... but would that be worth the shoe leather consumed by that walk?
I was trying to end the whole discussion of SBG can do this, but here are ten reasons why we spent millions tearing out our carpet but we still can't do it. No magic, just demons, black magic and witch doctors at every doorway.Quote: FleaStiffI wonder. Do gamblers as a whole tend to accept such things as "neutral magic"? Well, perhaps that is grist for a different thread.
If these two server based casinos can be differentiated it would have to be by Madison Avenue generated hype. Our Tray Lizards have bigger boobs than their tray lizards or some thing like that. The average slot player will not sense anything so fine even by subtle clues. Heck, Southpoint made ten percent of their machines looser and do you really think the players the next week made beelines for the new and improved chips?
Slot players sense what 'bang for their buck' they get from when their initial deposit goes bust. It it used to take an hour to lose a hundred bucks and now takes a half hour that is noticeable, but a minute change in the long run payout with no guarantee that variance won't rear its ugly head with random payouts taking place on the high days in a disproportionate manner.
Unless of course the players do it by "neutral magic" and all start wandering next door on the low payout days... but would that be worth the shoe leather consumed by that walk?
South Point sounds like nobody believed them and they didn't try hard enough. Soaring Eagle had half their floor the manufacturer's best successfully for years but I think external pressure got to them and they're no longer popular with regulars.
I'm not so sure this strategy isn't used already within most casinos having some machines loose and some tighter already. It has to be actually. We know the video poker machines aren't all identical for the same games too. The wins bring loyalty and repeat business and if they want to believe all their machines are set identically, why stop them?
I believe the differences have to be noticeable on some level or how would they..
The players don't know and are not told. By know, it has not been made concrete to them, but this doesn't mean they can't suspect being pretty sure. Many will tell others the machines aren't tighter or looser on any days, quoting the reports usually more or less 90% actual payback in the papers and calling anyone questioning it crazy. They don't know. Know in the way, I don't know my weight, I could weigh 220-240, but I don't know unless I step on the scale and I won't or can't.Quote: rxwineCasino B makes the most money. They put signs out on the day the machines are set to 91% and advertise they pay better than the other casino so more people show up.
They take them down every other day and don't mention lowering the payout.
(wouldn't work in a real situation though, or at least not very long. Plus I don't think they share such info with each other anyway.)
These casinos A and B won't let video and won't let the people keep notes. They don't know the paybacks but some or all may have suspicions. Signs up quoting paybacks wouldn't happen because casino A and B don't tell anyone the paybacks officially. Misinformation would be allowed in the scenario by anyone choosing to broadcast vague, misleading information by their own volition. The people still don't know the schemes in place regarding payback strategies regardless of who says what.
I think so if I understand you right with your accidental editing errors. You're saying people will gain confidence some days then trust it when it's not being reinforced. We're gaining more gaming volume keeping the same long term holds, but encouraging churn.Quote: tringlomaneRight, that's pretty noticeable. I definitely notice the difference from the play money IGT slot games on my computer vs. the same game in the casino.
As for your question, the payout differences might be close to a wash. Unless...the 91% payout days are mostly top heavy for that extra 2% from 89%. If that's the case, then I think the switching the payouts might get more revenue because you sucker more people into possibly being able to win longterm. More variance will greater confuse people on whether this game is still worth playing.
This subject was thought of as an answer there would be no way possible to know settings were being changed remotely any time without knowing the theoretical holds. The expectation would be the same in this question, but why do it? How could anyone know settings were changed if they aren't told? How could the settings be changed to pay for today's incentives when tomorrow doesn't have any? The official answer is nobody in the country does it and they have no reason to. Casinos may bribe people Mondays, Fridays, Saturdays, but have no reason to lure them there on specific days and change holds when they get there. Nobody does it but J.C. Penny's has no business without markups the nights before sales and coupons. So that's the real problem I'm trying to understand.
So in my opinion the rate of return is not especially meaningful to the casino, since the only variable that matters is how much bankroll the players begin with.
Rather than a percentage overall, the point should be about the probability (and amouint) of jackpot payoffs.
You are dead on about both points. Point B about jack pots we concede equal to both casinos.Quote: kubikulannMost slot players are re-betting their wins anyway (until some big win occurs).
So in my opinion the rate of return is not especially meaningful to the casino, since the only variable that matters is how much bankroll the players begin with.
Rather than a percentage overall, the point should be about the probability (and amouint) of jackpot payoffs.
Point A about how much money players will be willing to lose does seem essential to solving the problem. Which casino would be more conducive to players risking their budgets, either budgets limited by money or budgets limited by time more than money?
I'm open to the problem needing too much information to be solved, but wouldn't be happy with no answer because there must be an answer.
No one car really tell. I went to one slots only place in downtown to get my "free" keychain.... and the didn't have any "F"s, so they told me the guy will be bringing them over in twenty minutes..... and I realized all they really wanted was for me to play slots for that time so I wandered around and came back in twenty minutes and sure enough they had "found" an "F" keychain for me.
Do you think I would ever put even a penny into a casino like that?
Customer attitude is king.
Quote: tringlomaneRight, that's pretty noticeable. I definitely notice the difference from the play money IGT slot games on my computer vs. the same game in the casino.
As for your question, the payout differences might be close to a wash. Unless...the 91% payout days are mostly top heavy for that extra 2% from 89%. If that's the case, then I think the switching the payouts might get more revenue because you sucker more people into possibly being able to win longterm. More variance will greater confuse people on whether this game is still worth playing.
It would seem to me that a reel-assignment change for Free Games that operate on a separate reel set from the main game would also be an effective, and not quite as noticeable, way to do it.
Quote: Mission146It would seem to me that a reel-assignment change for Free Games that operate on a separate reel set from the main game would also be an effective, and not quite as noticeable, way to do it.
This is a very common way of changing hold percentages. Most of the games I design have the same payback percentage for the base game and I change the payback of the bonus based on the overall pay percentage of the game. I think for the player keeping consistent the frequency of the bonus is important. Players tend to realize if it takes longer than usual to get into the bonus but just assume they are not getting as lucky in the bonus. The goal for most video slot players is to get into the bonus, the win amount isn't nearly as important to them.
You beat me to this I have said this before BONUSES are now the driving factor in slots.Quote: DRichThis is a very common way of changing hold percentages. Most of the games I design have the same payback percentage for the base game and I change the payback of the bonus based on the overall pay percentage of the game. I think for the player keeping consistent the frequency of the bonus is important. Players tend to realize if it takes longer than usual to get into the bonus but just assume they are not getting as lucky in the bonus. The goal for most video slot players is to get into the bonus, the win amount isn't nearly as important to them.
I wish casinos would also see this. People like bonuses, they like small term goals/hits that have a nice potential.
DRich. Some games are very bonus heavy especially where you pay extra coins. 40+10 bonus. Some machines take forever in the bonus round this = less spinning and coin in and more watching. Do you think all this watching helps make the players think they are playing longer? I'm always wondering why they would make a bonus round take so long, especially since people are usually getting + EV while in the bonus rounds . Obviously bonuses are fun for the people playing. ( I know I love bonus rounds) I want to see each different bonus if I play a bonus slot.
Personally I would make a slot game with a ton of different bonus rounds and a bonus for triggering each bonus.
