Poll

16 votes (94.11%)
1 vote (5.88%)

17 members have voted

JoePloppy
JoePloppy
Joined: May 2, 2014
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 82
May 19th, 2014 at 2:35:09 PM permalink
How many draws would it take to show an edge from bending?
2/3
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 972
  • Posts: 16346
May 19th, 2014 at 2:43:21 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

You should probably do two disproportionate batches for the test.



Why?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
  • Threads: 77
  • Posts: 9106
May 19th, 2014 at 3:38:04 PM permalink
I would think you need to involve a kid or other person who doesn't know the theory, so you get an unbiased draw. Kind of an offer a hatful of tickets with various proportions of bent/straight, and have them do 10 straight draws. Even a little misdirection where you write down the ticket numbers or something just to see what different people grasp without knowing what you're testing for.
"If the house lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game."
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 972
  • Posts: 16346
May 19th, 2014 at 4:10:52 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I would think you need to involve a kid or other person who doesn't know the theory, so you get an unbiased draw.



I thought I would get several different people to pull the tickets to see if there is a correlation. My three kids can be among them. I need people who won't over-think it.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
  • Threads: 131
  • Posts: 4963
May 19th, 2014 at 4:18:56 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Why?

You have to have some sort of experiment control group but I don't know how to pull that part off. You would want to test them at an advantage already and at a disadvantage to test the effectiveness or possible lack of.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
May 19th, 2014 at 4:21:15 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

You have to have some sort of experiment control group but I don't know how to pull that part off. You would want to test them at an advantage already and at a disadvantage to test the effectiveness or possible lack of.



The results of the control group are known. If nothing is bent, they are all equally likely to be picked. This doesn't need to be verified experimentally.

The question is, if some are bent, are the bent ones more likely to be picked?
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 115
  • Posts: 12641
May 19th, 2014 at 4:34:37 PM permalink
I think we tested this a long time ago. There is no doubt crimping and bending works better. How much better is the real question.Bending is good if it keeps the bend and does not flatten out with the weight from other tickets, not all tickets are the same. As i said before you should do half and half, just in case they avoid the bent ones on purpose.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 972
  • Posts: 16346
May 19th, 2014 at 4:45:56 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

You have to have some sort of experiment control group but I don't know how to pull that part off. You would want to test them at an advantage already and at a disadvantage to test the effectiveness or possible lack of.



Maybe I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed, but I still am having a hard time understanding your suggestion. Feel free to use plain simple English. I thought one used control groups for such things as testing medicines, where a placebo effect may be at play.

What I'm thinking of doing is folding half and not folding the other half. Of the folded half I am not sure how to fold them. Maybe just a fold down the middle, maybe a double fold, maybe rolling, maybe some combination. Personally, with real drawing tickets I just fold mine half way at a 90-degree angle.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
May 19th, 2014 at 4:47:41 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I think we tested this a long time ago. There is no doubt crimping and bending works better. How much better is the real question.Bending is good if it keeps the bend and does not flatten out with the weight from other tickets, not all tickets are the same. As i said before you should do half and half, just in case they avoid the bent ones on purpose.



What do you mean by crimping? Just turning a corner up? I've seen all sorts of tickets (bent all sorts of different ways) in the barrel. When they picked them I tried to get a look at the tickets and they did not seem bent (although I was a bit far away) which lead me to ask this question. As you say, it's possible that they are avoiding the bent ones. Then again, it wasn't the same person who picked each ticket.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
  • Threads: 131
  • Posts: 4963
May 19th, 2014 at 4:49:37 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

The results of the control group are known. If nothing is bent, they are all equally likely to be picked. This doesn't need to be verified experimentally.

The question is, if some are bent, are the bent ones more likely to be picked?

Maybe people pick what feels different, but this discussion seems past the scope of the project anyways. I know what you're saying being common sense, but sometime common sense is wrong.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!

  • Jump to: