Poll

16 votes (94.11%)
1 vote (5.88%)

17 members have voted

AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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May 18th, 2014 at 10:19:30 AM permalink
For casino promotions that still use regular tickets in a real drum (not the electronic ones) where you print your tickets at the players desk and put them into the drum -- do you bend / crease your tickets before you put them into the drum? Do you think that the bent ones have a better chance of being picked?
JoePloppy
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May 18th, 2014 at 10:27:38 AM permalink
Bend me if you got em.
Bend in half, not fold in half.
A gentle crease down the middle like a beautiful woman in yoga pants.
2/3
onenickelmiracle
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May 18th, 2014 at 11:38:10 AM permalink
More surface area to touch and grab.
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coilman
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May 18th, 2014 at 1:00:10 PM permalink
Few years ago mom says she wanted to go for the car draw at Caesars Windsor

was for a nice Camaro convertible worth just under $60,000

first name called was moms lifelong best friend boyfriend

he wasn't there

they called the name out Al *****

lady do the draw says no make the ALFRED ******

mom was looking around for him but he didn't show up at 7 pm because he thought the draw was at 8pm

I haven't got the heart to ask him if he folded his tickets or not
AxelWolf
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May 18th, 2014 at 2:35:33 PM permalink
There is a better chance they will gab a bent or crimped ticket. This was a normal thing for AP's. Slightly bending them may not last long and they can flatten out so crimping works well. Its a pain in the ass to get them into the drum like that however. Especially if you have thousands.

A few casinos started avoiding Bent tickets since this was an AP move.

I think it is Plaza that has a specific rule about bending or folding tickets.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxiomOfChoice
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May 18th, 2014 at 7:42:52 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

There is a better chance they will gab a bent or crimped ticket. This was a normal thing for AP's. Slightly bending them may not last long and they can flatten out so crimping works well. Its a pain in the ass to get them into the drum like that however. Especially if you have thousands.

A few casinos started avoiding Bent tickets since this was an AP move.

I think it is Plaza that has a specific rule about bending or folding tickets.



I dunno, I see a lot of people doing it who I'm willing to bet aren't APs.
AxelWolf
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May 18th, 2014 at 7:49:55 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I dunno, I see a lot of people doing it who I'm willing to bet aren't APs.

Obviously others do it sometimes. AP's most of the time, It was local casinos avoiding bent tickets and this was years ago.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AcesAndEights
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May 18th, 2014 at 8:08:00 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

More surface area to touch and grab.


Well that's just not true, it would be the same surface area. Just a different shape in 3 dimensions.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
onenickelmiracle
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May 18th, 2014 at 8:17:25 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

Well that's just not true, it would be the same surface area. Just a different shape in 3 dimensions.

I meant volume or is that wrong too? It works though and I would do it unless I knew the rules forbid it. Sometimes some I wouldn't if I felt the chooser might intentionally avoid them.
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AxelWolf
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May 18th, 2014 at 11:30:08 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

I meant volume or is that wrong too? It works though and I would do it unless I knew the rules forbid it. Sometimes some I wouldn't if I felt the chooser might intentionally avoid them.

I do half and half usually
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
wudged
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May 19th, 2014 at 8:23:11 AM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

Well that's just not true, it would be the same surface area. Just a different shape in 3 dimensions.



Unless it was being folded 180 degrees completely to rest on itself, rather than bent at some other angle.
Wizard
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May 19th, 2014 at 8:46:06 AM permalink
I bend them but I know some APs think it is a waste of time. This might actually make for a good experiment. Perhaps what I'll do is buy a roll of tickets, fold half of them, dump them into a bag, and ask volunteers to draw some. I'm afraid if I draw them there would be a bias.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Sabretom2
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May 19th, 2014 at 8:56:17 AM permalink
I'm a bigot.
AxiomOfChoice
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May 19th, 2014 at 9:50:51 AM permalink
Wow, 9-0 so far in favor of bending them. I did not expect a shutout!

Now I feel stupid for all those tickets I did not bend.
AcesAndEights
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May 19th, 2014 at 10:06:17 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I bend them but I know some APs think it is a waste of time. This might actually make for a good experiment. Perhaps what I'll do is buy a roll of tickets, fold half of them, dump them into a bag, and ask volunteers to draw some. I'm afraid if I draw them there would be a bias.


I would be interested in this experiment.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
beachbumbabs
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May 19th, 2014 at 10:33:24 AM permalink
I always bend them. It's hard to pick up just one slip of paper blindly if they're all flat. When you're trying hard to grab just one, a corner sticking up is going to feel like one ticket.

Not that I've ever won a drawing. But I've had to separate a LOT of sheets of paper over the years.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
slyther
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May 19th, 2014 at 1:39:24 PM permalink
Anytime I am in a drawing of some sort I bend the sheet at an odd angle because...well why the heck not!
Wizard
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May 19th, 2014 at 1:44:12 PM permalink
I just bought a huge role of tickets at the Office Depot. Stay tuned for the results.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
onenickelmiracle
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May 19th, 2014 at 1:57:18 PM permalink
You should probably do two disproportionate batches for the test.
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AxiomOfChoice
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May 19th, 2014 at 2:09:14 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I just bought a huge role of tickets at the Office Depot. Stay tuned for the results.



Awesome! Science!
JoePloppy
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May 19th, 2014 at 2:35:09 PM permalink
How many draws would it take to show an edge from bending?
2/3
Wizard
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May 19th, 2014 at 2:43:21 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

You should probably do two disproportionate batches for the test.



Why?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
beachbumbabs
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May 19th, 2014 at 3:38:04 PM permalink
I would think you need to involve a kid or other person who doesn't know the theory, so you get an unbiased draw. Kind of an offer a hatful of tickets with various proportions of bent/straight, and have them do 10 straight draws. Even a little misdirection where you write down the ticket numbers or something just to see what different people grasp without knowing what you're testing for.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Wizard
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May 19th, 2014 at 4:10:52 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I would think you need to involve a kid or other person who doesn't know the theory, so you get an unbiased draw.



I thought I would get several different people to pull the tickets to see if there is a correlation. My three kids can be among them. I need people who won't over-think it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
onenickelmiracle
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May 19th, 2014 at 4:18:56 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Why?

You have to have some sort of experiment control group but I don't know how to pull that part off. You would want to test them at an advantage already and at a disadvantage to test the effectiveness or possible lack of.
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AxiomOfChoice
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May 19th, 2014 at 4:21:15 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

You have to have some sort of experiment control group but I don't know how to pull that part off. You would want to test them at an advantage already and at a disadvantage to test the effectiveness or possible lack of.



The results of the control group are known. If nothing is bent, they are all equally likely to be picked. This doesn't need to be verified experimentally.

The question is, if some are bent, are the bent ones more likely to be picked?
AxelWolf
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May 19th, 2014 at 4:34:37 PM permalink
I think we tested this a long time ago. There is no doubt crimping and bending works better. How much better is the real question.Bending is good if it keeps the bend and does not flatten out with the weight from other tickets, not all tickets are the same. As i said before you should do half and half, just in case they avoid the bent ones on purpose.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Wizard
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May 19th, 2014 at 4:45:56 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

You have to have some sort of experiment control group but I don't know how to pull that part off. You would want to test them at an advantage already and at a disadvantage to test the effectiveness or possible lack of.



Maybe I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed, but I still am having a hard time understanding your suggestion. Feel free to use plain simple English. I thought one used control groups for such things as testing medicines, where a placebo effect may be at play.

What I'm thinking of doing is folding half and not folding the other half. Of the folded half I am not sure how to fold them. Maybe just a fold down the middle, maybe a double fold, maybe rolling, maybe some combination. Personally, with real drawing tickets I just fold mine half way at a 90-degree angle.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AxiomOfChoice
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May 19th, 2014 at 4:47:41 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I think we tested this a long time ago. There is no doubt crimping and bending works better. How much better is the real question.Bending is good if it keeps the bend and does not flatten out with the weight from other tickets, not all tickets are the same. As i said before you should do half and half, just in case they avoid the bent ones on purpose.



What do you mean by crimping? Just turning a corner up? I've seen all sorts of tickets (bent all sorts of different ways) in the barrel. When they picked them I tried to get a look at the tickets and they did not seem bent (although I was a bit far away) which lead me to ask this question. As you say, it's possible that they are avoiding the bent ones. Then again, it wasn't the same person who picked each ticket.
onenickelmiracle
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May 19th, 2014 at 4:49:37 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

The results of the control group are known. If nothing is bent, they are all equally likely to be picked. This doesn't need to be verified experimentally.

The question is, if some are bent, are the bent ones more likely to be picked?

Maybe people pick what feels different, but this discussion seems past the scope of the project anyways. I know what you're saying being common sense, but sometime common sense is wrong.
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AxiomOfChoice
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May 19th, 2014 at 4:54:01 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Maybe people pick what feels different, but this discussion seems past the scope of the project anyways. I know what you're saying being common sense, but sometime common sense is wrong.



Ok, now I see what you are saying. You are saying that, possibly, if the majority are straight then the bent ones will be more likely to be picked, and if the majority are bent then the straight ones will be more likely to be picked.

This isn't really a control, but I think you are right. To really do this well, you would want to run, perhaps, 4 experiments, with 10%, 25%, 75%, and 90% bent. That is a lot of work though. Maybe we could parallelize it. I'd be willing to collect some data...

You really need to do a lot of drawings for each experiment, too.
AxelWolf
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May 19th, 2014 at 4:54:58 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

What do you mean by crimping? Just turning a corner up? I've seen all sorts of tickets (bent all sorts of different ways) in the barrel. When they picked them I tried to get a look at the tickets and they did not seem bent (although I was a bit far away) which lead me to ask this question. As you say, it's possible that they are avoiding the bent ones. Then again, it wasn't the same person who picked each ticket.

yes sort of like bending the corners up. You palm them and squeeze them with your fingers and thumb. it creates a wave and and hold the shape better. Its a pain in the ass if you have a ton of tickets.

Are you crying you didn't win and now are wondering what you could have done different?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxiomOfChoice
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May 19th, 2014 at 5:00:43 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

yes sort of like bending the corners up. You palm them and squeeze them with your fingers and thumb. it creates a wave and and hold the shape better. Its a pain in the ass if you have a ton of tickets.

Are you crying you didn't win and now are wondering what you could have done different?



Well, I didn't win, but I will be involved in many more of these in the future, and, if there is an optimal strategy, I want to be following it. Not so much crying about the past as preparing for the future.
Wizard
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May 19th, 2014 at 5:05:44 PM permalink
I had to buy a huge role of tickets. If anybody in Vegas would like to volunteer to help I'd be happy to provide some tickets, as I don't need all of them, and include you in the glory of the results. I plan to make at least an Ask the Wizard question out of it, and maybe a YouTube video. For anyone outside of Vegas who would like to help, I'd be happy to send the money for you to buy the tickets yourself. A big roll is about $10.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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May 22nd, 2014 at 7:51:51 PM permalink
Here is a progress report on the experiment. I had my mother in law fold 200 tickets in half at a 90-degree angle and put them in a bag along with 200 unfolded tickets. Then I had other members of my family draw tickets one at a time. Here are the results so far:

7-year old daughter:

Folded: 12
Unfolded: 8

12-year old son:

Folded: 14
Unfolded: 6

Wife:

Folded: 11
Unfolded: 9

Total

Folded: 37
Unfolded: 23

I'll collect some more data, but the preliminary data certainly favors folded tickets.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AxiomOfChoice
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May 22nd, 2014 at 7:54:05 PM permalink
Wow, good to know.

Was the drawing done with or without replacement?
AxelWolf
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May 22nd, 2014 at 8:04:43 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Wow, good to know.

Was the drawing done with or without replacement?

I still say no experiment is needed to know this. Just ask Axel, that's Scientific enough.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Wizard
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May 22nd, 2014 at 8:05:07 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Was the drawing done with or without replacement?



A hybrid. I had the volunteers draw ten tickets without replacement and then I put them all back in the bag. Keep in mind there are 400 tickets in the bag, so it is almost like with replacement.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AxiomOfChoice
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May 22nd, 2014 at 8:08:15 PM permalink
Awesome, thanks for doing the experiment.

This is all I really needed to see.
Wizard
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May 22nd, 2014 at 8:43:09 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Awesome, thanks for doing the experiment.

This is all I really needed to see.



You're welcome. I'm still going to get a bigger sample size.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AxiomOfChoice
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May 22nd, 2014 at 8:52:32 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

You're welcome. I'm still going to get a bigger sample size.



Of course!! More data is always better!

I have unbent tickets currently sitting in a drum. I feel dumb.
chrisr
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May 22nd, 2014 at 8:53:23 PM permalink
95% CI (0.482115, 0.739293). did i do that right?
Wizard
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June 1st, 2014 at 10:52:50 AM permalink
The results are in!

I had six volunteers each draw 40 to 60 tickets for a total sample size of 300.

Folded: 175
Unfolded: 125

Remember that there were 50% folded and 50% unfolded tickets in the bag.

So, 58.3% of the tickets drawn were folded. The probability of drawing this many or more folded tickets, assuming a true 50% probability is 1 in 514.

I might add that the volunteers who drew tickets hastily were the most likely to draw folded ones. Those who seemed to put a lot of thought into it were close or at 50/50.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
GWAE
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June 1st, 2014 at 11:09:28 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The results are in!

I had six volunteers each draw 40 to 60 tickets for a total sample size of 300.

Folded: 175
Unfolded: 125

Remember that there were 50% folded and 50% unfolded tickets in the bag.

So, 58.3% of the tickets drawn were folded. The probability of drawing this many or more folded tickets, assuming a true 50% probability is 1 in 514.

I might add that the volunteers who drew tickets hastily were the most likely to draw folded ones. Those who seemed to put a lot of thought into it were close or at 50/50.



But does this really answer the question about drawing tickets?

Last weekend there were probably 10,000 tickets in the barrel. If there are only 100 folded tickets then would it be more likely to be drawn in this instance?
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Wizard
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June 1st, 2014 at 11:19:24 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Last weekend there were probably 10,000 tickets in the barrel. If there are only 100 folded tickets then would it be more likely to be drawn in this instance?



I think it is safe to assume that your odds are better folding your own tickets than not folding them. In your example, I would suggest a folded ticket has a 1 in 8,571 chance, instead of 1 in 10,000.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AxiomOfChoice
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June 1st, 2014 at 4:24:42 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The results are in!

I had six volunteers each draw 40 to 60 tickets for a total sample size of 300.

Folded: 175
Unfolded: 125

Remember that there were 50% folded and 50% unfolded tickets in the bag.

So, 58.3% of the tickets drawn were folded. The probability of drawing this many or more folded tickets, assuming a true 50% probability is 1 in 514.

I might add that the volunteers who drew tickets hastily were the most likely to draw folded ones. Those who seemed to put a lot of thought into it were close or at 50/50.



Thanks for doing this! Definitely good to know.
ChampagneFireball
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June 3rd, 2014 at 10:58:41 AM permalink
I was at a corporate event where they gave out prizes via a business card drawing, and they excluded any business card that was bent, even announcing "So-and-so, you would have won if you hadn't bent your business card in an attempt to game the system."
AxiomOfChoice
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June 3rd, 2014 at 11:13:40 AM permalink
Quote: ChampagneFireball

I was at a corporate event where they gave out prizes via a business card drawing, and they excluded any business card that was bent, even announcing "So-and-so, you would have won if you hadn't bent your business card in an attempt to game the system."



That's stupid. They should just encourage everyone to bend their cards.
AcesAndEights
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June 3rd, 2014 at 11:21:57 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

That's stupid. They should just encourage everyone to bend their cards.


If it was clearly stated before you submitted the card, it's not stupid. They can have whatever rules they want for their drawing. But if they didn't specify that rule upfront, then it's stupid and unfair.

Has anyone heard of a casino drawing making this rule? I have never entered one.
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onenickelmiracle
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June 3rd, 2014 at 11:54:09 AM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

If it was clearly stated before you submitted the card, it's not stupid. They can have whatever rules they want for their drawing. But if they didn't specify that rule upfront, then it's stupid and unfair.

Has anyone heard of a casino drawing making this rule? I have never entered one.

Always read the fine print for anything from sweepstakes to these drawings. I read a book on the subject once and it recommended to not even put a return address on your mailed entries' envelopes because some companies void them to make the pool lower to draw from.
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