My YTD:

May 3...a third of the way in. My accumulated EV is down from where it should be based on other years. This basically means I have played less. I spent quite a bit of time training and working with a new teammate, that didn't work out, so that was just wasted time (and effort). Of the EV that I have accumulated I am almost exactly 50% below expectation for the time played. At this rate, I am on pace for my worse year since I relocated to Vegas in 2009. It would be my worse year since I've been playing at my current stakes. But really, in this game you are never really "on pace" for anything. It all can change for good or bad very quickly with one big swing. I am looking on the horizon for that big plus swing....hopefully it's out there. :) One really should never even do, these types of "on pace" projections. It's meaningless. It's over analyzing, which is one of my weaknesses.

I was fortunate enough to have examined my OSN profile recently, and unlike Mr Ben Affleck, I am doing well with flying under the radar and not wearing out my welcome too quickly, which is always one of my big concerns.

On the plus side: I am happy, healthy, (just had a 3 month check up from my skin cancer surgeries earlier this year, which was a good check up), and life is good. Playing in a softball league, which is the first organized sports since high school, I do see my baseball/softball skills deteriorating just a hair since my teens, but if that is all I have to complain about, it just confirms that life is good. :)

I wish you all the best variance for the rest of the year.

Just a question. Do you pay yourself a salary each week or do you just pay for things from your BR.

Quote: GWAE

Just a question. Do you pay yourself a salary each week or do you just pay for things from your BR.

Neither. My partner and I start each year with a fresh BR and take no money out for the entire year and then at years end, we 'break' the bank, resetting bankroll and split profits. Now this year, we had to do things a little differently and broke the bank a few weeks ago, when our third teammate, left our partnership.

This is my preferred method because the up and down swings are volatile enough, without having to take money out of the bankroll during a down swing. But, I wasn't always able to do it this way. It wasn't long ago, that I couldn't go a whole year without breaking the bank and at that time, I would sort of break the bank every 3 or 4 months, but try to do so during an up or at least stable period. Again, taking money out when on a down swing just has a bad psychological feel to it. It just feels like the bankroll is hemorrhaging money.

Quote: kewlj

I am looking on the horizon for that big plus swing....hopefully it's out there. :)

It's not as good as a big swing, but there's a new Ferris wheel in town that's pretty cool I hear.

Quote: geoff

It's not as good as a big swing, but there's a new Ferris wheel in town that's pretty cool I hear.

Yes, rode it last week for the first (and probably only) time. I did look out pretty far on that horizon, but saw no big swing coming. lol

Quote: kewlj

I was fortunate enough to have examined my OSN profile recently, and unlike Mr Ben Affleck, I am doing well with flying under the radar and not wearing out my welcome too quickly, which is always one of my big concerns.

How did you manage that?

Thanks for the update, kewlj. Hope you do better for the rest of the year. :)

Kewlj,

Hypothetically, if Ben Affleck would of asked you for your advice on playing as an AP in high limit rooms, what would you of told him?

Quote: EdgeLooker

Kewlj,

Hypothetically, if Ben Affleck would of asked you for your advice on playing as an AP in high limit rooms, what would you of told him?

That's not my area. I don't play high limit rooms. Just too many eyes on you.

Do you ever worry about your longevity counting cards? I don't know your bet amounts but I'm sure you'll have to introduce black chips sometime for profit that is worth your time and efforts. Seems like we have different philosophies considering our play, you're able to only play a limited amount of time in one place, but have many places to choose from, whereas I am able to grind in only a few places for a very long amount of time.

Quote: kewlj

Neither. My partner and I start each year with a fresh BR and take no money out for the entire year and then at years end, we 'break' the bank, resetting bankroll and split profits. Now this year, we had to do things a little differently and broke the bank a few weeks ago, when our third teammate, left our partnership.

This is my preferred method because the up and down swings are volatile enough, without having to take money out of the bankroll during a down swing. But, I wasn't always able to do it this way. It wasn't long ago, that I couldn't go a whole year without breaking the bank and at that time, I would sort of break the bank every 3 or 4 months, but try to do so during an up or at least stable period. Again, taking money out when on a down swing just has a bad psychological feel to it. It just feels like the bankroll is hemorrhaging money.

wow you must have some real discipline. If I paid myself my entire salary in January, there is no way I would have any money left in December. Although I think I would try to pay all of my bills ahead for the year.

Quote: kewlj

May 3...a third of the way in. My accumulated EV is down from where it should be based on other years. This basically means I have played less. I spent quite a bit of time training and working with a new teammate, that didn't work out, so that was just wasted time (and effort). Of the EV that I have accumulated I am almost exactly 50% below expectation for the time played. At this rate, I am on pace for my worse year since I relocated to Vegas in 2009. It would be my worse year since I've been playing at my current stakes. But really, in this game you are never really "on pace" for anything. It all can change for good or bad very quickly with one big swing. I am looking on the horizon for that big plus swing....hopefully it's out there. :) One really should never even do, these types of "on pace" projections. It's meaningless. It's over analyzing, which is one of my weaknesses.

I was fortunate enough to have examined my OSN profile recently, and unlike Mr Ben Affleck, I am doing well with flying under the radar and not wearing out my welcome too quickly, which is always one of my big concerns.

On the plus side: I am happy, healthy, (just had a 3 month check up from my skin cancer surgeries earlier this year, which was a good check up), and life is good. Playing in a softball league, which is the first organized sports since high school, I do see my baseball/softball skills deteriorating just a hair since my teens, but if that is all I have to complain about, it just confirms that life is good. :)

Interested in knowing why the new guy didn't work out?

Quote: AxelWolf

Interested in knowing why the new guy didn't work out?

he had a thread about it

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/17845-blackjack-friends-as-teammates/

Quote: djatc

Do you ever worry about your longevity counting cards? I don't know your bet amounts but I'm sure you'll have to introduce black chips sometime for profit that is worth your time and efforts. Seems like we have different philosophies considering our play, you're able to only play a limited amount of time in one place, but have many places to choose from, whereas I am able to grind in only a few places for a very long amount of time.

Don't machine players get backed off too, though?

Quote: djatc

Do you ever worry about your longevity counting cards? I don't know your bet amounts but I'm sure you'll have to introduce black chips sometime for profit that is worth your time and efforts. Seems like we have different philosophies considering our play, you're able to only play a limited amount of time in one place, but have many places to choose from, whereas I am able to grind in only a few places for a very long amount of time.

Longevity IS probably my biggest concern. I know a few players that have slash and burned their way through some locations, thinking there are just many games now available, that you have an almost unlimited supply, only to find that it doesn't work that way. With technology and networks available to the industry it is hard to stay ahead of your reputation, once you become known. That is why I have made a priority of drawing as little attention and flying under the radar for as long as I can.

Playing black (upper end of spread) isn't a problem. Most places tolerate mid black play pretty well, especially for short sessions. It's when you move higher than mid black ($500 threshold), that you begin to test different casino's tolerance and comfort levels. That's why I have remained at my current levels, green to mid black, even though I now have the bankroll o play higher levels. It's the sheer a sheep vs slaughter a sheep mentality.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Don't machine players get backed off too, though?

Not often.. though one man who won two major jackpots at Video Poker in one day was permanently 86's from all CET properties ... until Monday morning when the Casino Manager found out that a man who gambles twelve million dollars a year had been banned just for winning at a slot machine. Heads nearly rolled for that incident.

Quote: FleaStiff

Not often.. though one man who won two major jackpots at Video Poker in one day was permanently 86's from all CET properties ... until Monday morning when the Casino Manager found out that a man who gambles twelve million dollars a year had been banned just for winning at a slot machine. Heads nearly rolled for that incident.

I'm talking about APs, not people who get lucky.

I've heard that the Palms can be pretty aggressive about trying to get rid of skilled players who aren't named Bob Dancer, for example.

I was below expectation last year. This calendar year (Jan. 1st-forward), I've doubled my bankroll I had accumulated over the previous 18 months with only about double the average bet overall...way above expectation. It will turn around, it always does. 50% below, nothing to worry about. Being in the red, that is when I'd be concerned. Last year, I was in the red after 3 months (not total, for the calendar year). I don't think playing higher stakes means anything...you are just as likely to end up in the red...comps might alleviate the cost of cover at that level, but because there is no cover at my level, I'd imagine it's all on par. 50% under is nothing remarkable at all...it's gotta happen.