Variance, bankroll, and risk of ruin
As an introduction, let me say that I'm a relatively inexperienced gambler -- a total of a half dozen trips to Las Vegas in the last 5 years. Thanks to the Wizard of Odds and his website I managed to avoid bets with a high house edge and learned basic strategies for blackjack, Jacks or better video poker, and craps.
What I am still gettting a handle on is how long will my money last me on a given game for a given bet size?
The statistics involved would combine the variance and risk of ruin to determine the size of bankroll for a given number of plays. Running those numbers are the domain of the Wizard, but what about the rest of us?
Right now I have a feeling about a given game and my bankroll. If I'm playing $10 blackjack then I expect to be able to play for about an hour with $100 bankroll. It would be unusual to lose 10 straight hands in a row in blackjack which I assume indicates that it has a fairly low variance.
If I'm playing 25 cent video poker then my $40 won't last very long because it has a high variance so I expect to play a half hour or less with VP and $40.
With craps at $3 pass line and x3-4-5 odds, my $100 should last me about a hour if I stick to just a single pass line bet and no come bets.
What do others use as rules of thumb for their bankroll for their favourite games?
Are my above expectations realistic or have they been coloured by my gambling experiences so far?
silly
I played $5 Baccarat at the El Cortez.Quote: DeMangoI'm thinking that downtown, you could find a $5 baccarat game. That has the lowest variance according to the Wiz's charts. Outside of that , I agree, craps, a $3 game, would definitely make a $100 last a long time especially if you only took single or double odds.
It is a nice casino to play in. A little scary to walk to it from the Fremont Experience. I drove instead.
The Golden Nugget has 2 Baccarat tables across from the Craps pit, both were $10 when I was there.
They also have the Dragon Bonus bet.
Quote: mustangsally
All sorts of data to go over if one wants.
Hope this helps out someone
Sally
wow!
For blackjack lately, I've been buying in for $200 but sometimes at $15 or $25 tables. I see that my risk of ruin is huge looking for an hour's worth of play at 80 hands in a hour if I'm not at a $10 table. Thats OK because sometimes I'm just looking to see where the cards are taking me and if I wash out quickly then I change to craps or VP or go shopping with my wife.
For VP, again we're looking for about an hour's play (around 200 hands; we don't play that fast) and at $40 at the $0.25 machines again I see that I've got a 25.27% risk of ruin. Lately we've gone to $100 per session and I see that our risk of ruin is MUCH lower for our hour of play.
For craps, it looks like I'm in a little better shape on risk of ruin as I'm lucky to get 20 pass line bets down in an hour and I typically play x3-4-5.
So again thanks for all the info, and it looks like I should not be surprised to be washing out at the lower levels I play at and upping the bankroll will help ensure that we get an hour's play without washing out. Mind you that means going from $40 to $100 of bankroll in video poker or getting on a $10 table for blackjack.
--helpmespock
Quote: helpmespockWow that's a weath of information. Thanks!
For blackjack lately, I've been buying in for $200 but sometimes at $15 or $25 tables. I see that my risk of ruin is huge looking for an hour's worth of play at 80 hands in a hour if I'm not at a $10 table. Thats OK because sometimes I'm just looking to see where the cards are taking me and if I wash out quickly then I change to craps or VP or go shopping with my wife.
For VP, again we're looking for about an hour's play (around 200 hands; we don't play that fast) and at $40 at the $0.25 machines again I see that I've got a 25.27% risk of ruin. Lately we've gone to $100 per session and I see that our risk of ruin is MUCH lower for our hour of play.
For craps, it looks like I'm in a little better shape on risk of ruin as I'm lucky to get 20 pass line bets down in an hour and I typically play x3-4-5.
So again thanks for all the info, and it looks like I should not be surprised to be washing out at the lower levels I play at and upping the bankroll will help ensure that we get an hour's play without washing out. Mind you that means going from $40 to $100 of bankroll in video poker or getting on a $10 table for blackjack.
--helpmespock[/
For blackjack I recommend a bankroll of at least 100 max bets.Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
silly
