How to gamble to make money in the short term

I know that in the long term, the casino wins and that you should choose games/wagers with a low house edge. However, is there any strategy for increasing your chances of winning in the short term?

I will be going to Vegas in 2 weeks, my first visit in 6 years, and I want to try to win a lot. I will be bringing $1000.

Should I play a game with a high variance? Any suggestions?

1k on banker

Are any of you cats gonna define the "short term", hey hey??????????????

Urghhhhh refer to my other thread about how "long term" is a misnomer for EV. and therefore there is no "short term +EV"

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/17819-who-is-sick-uncomfortable-etc-of-ev-being-called-long-term-result-to-the-average-person/#post349602

Quote: longtimelancer

I know that in the long term, the casino wins and that you should choose games/wagers with a low house edge. However, is there any strategy for increasing your chances of winning in the short term?

I will be going to Vegas in 2 weeks, my first visit in 6 years, and I want to try to win a lot. I will be bringing $1000.

Should I play a game with a high variance? Any suggestions?

If you want to GAMBLE and win a lot (how much is a lot?) play high denominations and high variance.

If you don't have any AP plays, your friend is high variance. Play craps pass lines with odds, good proprietary games like UTH, high-denomination video poker, etc.

Quote: longtimelancer

I know that in the long term, the casino wins and that you should choose games/wagers with a low house edge. However, is there any strategy for increasing your chances of winning in the short term?

I will be going to Vegas in 2 weeks, my first visit in 6 years, and I want to try to win a lot. I will be bringing $1000.

Should I play a game with a high variance? Any suggestions?

You can increase your chances of winning in the short term, but you have to give up something for it.

For example, supposing that there was a game with no house edge. You could have a 1000/1001 chance of winning $1, but you would have to be willing to risk your whole $1000 to win 1 stinking dollar. You will almost certainly win.... but if you do, you probably won't care, and, if you don't, you will probably feel silly having risked $1000 to win $1.

If you want to try to win "a lot", then, you need to define "a lot". Say you want to win $10k. In a game with no house edge, you could have a 1/11 chance of winning $10k if you were willing to risk your whole $1k to do so.

If the games had no house edge, it wouldn't really matter how long you bet, so long as you quit whenever you reached $10k profit ($11k total) -- you would have a 1/11 chance of succeeding. However, the games DO have a house edge, so it does matter how much you bet. If you want to maximize your chances of reaching some goal, you should pick a game with a low edge (the lower the better) and, every bet, bet just enough so that if you win you will have reached your goal (if you don't have enough for that, bet everything).

But, I suspect that maximizing your chances of winning big is not your only goal. This strategy will have you either hit your goal or lose everything (probably lose everything) very quickly -- possibly on one hand! I suspect that you also want to have some fun gambling for a while. So, how to balance this is really up to you. I'd suggest figuring out how much you want to gamble for. Say, you want to gamble for 10 of the 14 days. So, split your $1000 into ten $100 "session bankrolls", and bet that $100 pretty aggressively, pressing up your bets when you win, trying to go on a lucky streak. If you lose that day's money, no more gambling for that day, but you can come back the next day and try again. As for what to do with your winnings, it really depends on what your goals are. If you want to leave with some of that $1000 (or maybe even a small profit if you get lucky) then put every day's money in your safe and don't touch it -- start the next day with the next $100. If you really want to go home with a lot, or go broke trying, then split whatever's left from a day up over the following day's bankrolls, so you'll start with more in each of the next days.

If you're going to do this, you're going to play a lot (betting over the same money many times over as you win some and lose some) so it's REALLY important to pick a game with a low house edge. This is because you will put in a lot of total action, and the house edge multiplied by your total action is your expected loss, so it's important to keep that house edge as low as possible as the total action gets large.

Also remember that if you play for long enough you will eventually lose it all (that house edge will catch up with you sooner or later) so you have to be somewhat aggressive with your betting if you want a chance of winning. Flat-betting the table minimum for 2 weeks will maximize the amount of gambling time you get from your $1000 but it also gives you almost no chance to win over the course of those 2 weeks (which is fine, if your goal is just to make your gambling budget last as long as possible, because you enjoy playing the games)

like the guy featured in the news a couple of years ago, put all his money on one spot of high limit Roulette (single zero).
Either lose all his money, or become rich in one spin.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

You can increase your chances of winning in the short term, but you have to give up something for it.

For example, supposing that there was a game with no house edge. You could have a 1000/1001 chance of winning $1, but you would have to be willing to risk your whole $1000 to win 1 stinking dollar. You will almost certainly win.... but if you do, you probably won't care, and, if you don't, you will probably feel silly having risked $1000 to win $1.

If you want to try to win "a lot", then, you need to define "a lot". Say you want to win $10k. In a game with no house edge, you could have a 1/11 chance of winning $10k if you were willing to risk your whole $1k to do so.

If the games had no house edge, it wouldn't really matter how long you bet, so long as you quit whenever you reached $10k profit ($11k total) -- you would have a 1/11 chance of succeeding. However, the games DO have a house edge, so it does matter how much you bet. If you want to maximize your chances of reaching some goal, you should pick a game with a low edge (the lower the better) and, every bet, bet just enough so that if you win you will have reached your goal (if you don't have enough for that, bet everything).

But, I suspect that maximizing your chances of winning big is not your only goal. This strategy will have you either hit your goal or lose everything (probably lose everything) very quickly -- possibly on one hand! I suspect that you also want to have some fun gambling for a while. So, how to balance this is really up to you. I'd suggest figuring out how much you want to gamble for. Say, you want to gamble for 10 of the 14 days. So, split your $1000 into ten $100 "session bankrolls", and bet that $100 pretty aggressively, pressing up your bets when you win, trying to go on a lucky streak. If you lose that day's money, no more gambling for that day, but you can come back the next day and try again. As for what to do with your winnings, it really depends on what your goals are. If you want to leave with some of that $1000 (or maybe even a small profit if you get lucky) then put every day's money in your safe and don't touch it -- start the next day with the next $100. If you really want to go home with a lot, or go broke trying, then split whatever's left from a day up over the following day's bankrolls, so you'll start with more in each of the next days.

If you're going to do this, you're going to play a lot (betting over the same money many times over as you win some and lose some) so it's REALLY important to pick a game with a low house edge. This is because you will put in a lot of total action, and the house edge multiplied by your total action is your expected loss, so it's important to keep that house edge as low as possible as the total action gets large.

Also remember that if you play for long enough you will eventually lose it all (that house edge will catch up with you sooner or later) so you have to be somewhat aggressive with your betting if you want a chance of winning. Flat-betting the table minimum for 2 weeks will maximize the amount of gambling time you get from your $1000 but it also gives you almost no chance to win over the course of those 2 weeks (which is fine, if your goal is just to make your gambling budget last as long as possible, because you enjoy playing the games)

I'm sure this was great advice most of the time your advice and what you post is correct. But I got dizzy just looking at it. One thing we don't know is how much entertainment value he wants from his 1k. If I had a very good friend that came to town who said this, I would steer him in the right direction.

for this guy, I would find the best high denomination $10-$25 VP game in town and go for it on the way out.

If I take the OP at face value, he said he wants to "win a lot of money". This will tell me he doesn't really care how long he plays or what he plays, as long as he can give hismelf the chance of winning a large sum of cash.

In that case you need to play slots with a high payout and hope for the best. How slosts usually work is as follows (this has to do with the E-proms they have installed). You get games who has a high top award that will pay out smaller awards more often but the probability of the high award is much smaller. The other way is to play a reel slot with say a $1200 or $1500 jackpot. The lower awards on the paytable may not show up as often but the probability of hitting the top award is higher. (Wiz can surely correct me if I'm wrong).

The former option will give you the possibility of winning a "lot of money" but you will more than likely lose the $1000 trying. On the flip side it should keep you busy for quite a while, especially at the 5, 10 and 25 cent levels.

Otherwise perhaps take bets like hardways on craps, parlay a $10 bet twice and hope for the 3rd hit? This will give you $10k in short order but the variance.....well yeah.

If I go directly off the limited information you gave you are going to want to play games with high variance (as has been mentioned) and stay away from blackjack or baccarat.

Play 3CP and bet the pairs plus and the progressive (if that is high enough).

Have fun and be prepared to probably return home without your $1000.

Drop it all into the Lions Share slot at the MGM Grand.

Or, bet the line + max odds at the craps table. The Don't Pass has a slight edge over the Pass, but it's so close it hardly matters. It's the other bets on the table that have the big house edge.

If you don't want to waste any time, put it all on black. Or is it red? I forget.

You should take the $1000 and play $1-2 no limit hold em poker against drunk people. Assuming you know how to play poker well.

You should take the $1000 and play $1-2 no limit hold em poker against drunk people. Assuming you know how to play poker well.

Quote: Tomspur

The former option will give you the possibility of winning a "lot of money" but you will more than likely lose the $1000 trying. On the flip side it should keep you busy for quite a while, especially at the 5, 10 and 25 cent levels.

.

Horrible idea this will grind you away. Also slots are the worst odds in most cases. But if he was going to play slots he should play at high denominations and hope for a bonus round or something. Video poker is a far better way to go I still don't know how much money he thinks is a lot. 1k, 2k,3k 10k?

I still think the best way would be to find a 9/6 jacks $10 machine or better something with a double up feature and go for it.

Quote: AxelWolf

Horrible idea this will grind you away. Also slots are the worst odds in most cases. But if he was going to play slots he should play at high denominations and hope for a bonus round or something. Video poker is a far better way to go I still don't know how much money he thinks is a lot. 1k, 2k,3k 10k?

I still think the best way would be to find a 9/6 jacks $10 machine or better something with a double up feature and go for it.

He is more than likely going to get ground away anyway. The thing is, if he can find a quarter machine with a $100,000 top award, then he should play here. He has some longevity as it is only a quarter game AND the top award will qualify his OP by winning lots of money.

He didn't ask what the most solid play or the safest play was, he wants to make MONEY. In order for him to do so he needs to play games which have low probabilities and he has a chance of winning money.

This is how I understood his OP anyway.

Quote: longtimelancer

I know that in the long term, the casino wins and that you should choose games/wagers with a low house edge. However, is there any strategy for increasing your chances of winning in the short term?

I will be going to Vegas in 2 weeks, my first visit in 6 years, and I want to try to win a lot. I will be bringing $1000.

Should I play a game with a high variance? Any suggestions?

1) You can at least try the loss rebates in Cosmo ($100), Tropicana ($200) and another $100 loss rebate in Fremont (I forgot the name). If you lost the max loss rebate amount, use the freeplay money on the Jack or Better video poker.

2)Order the "American Casino Guide 2014", drive around Vegas and use all of their match play coupons.

3) Go to Casino Royale. Sign up and get a fun book. The only thing worth your time is Blackjack pay double coupon ($25 max)
Find the single deck game. Follow the basic strategy and play $25 per hand until you hit the Blackjack. After you hit the blackjack,
then you should run.

The items that I mentioned above are +EV and low variance.

My advice concurs with others, Pass Line in Craps with full odds. I'd also suggest pressing after wins; have a short session in mind, win or lose.

This next comes from superstition, but I'm willing to bet on it:

If you are hoping to win because you need the money, your chances are near zero. If you are well off and winning a lot doesnt really mean much, you have the best chances of anybody.

Quote: Tomspur

He is more than likely going to get ground away anyway. The thing is, if he can find a quarter machine with a $100,000 top award, then he should play here. He has some longevity as it is only a quarter game AND the top award will qualify his OP by winning lots of money.

He didn't ask what the most solid play or the safest play was, he wants to make MONEY. In order for him to do so he needs to play games which have low probabilities and he has a chance of winning money.

This is how I understood his OP anyway.

Ground down on a $10 VP using double up? no, it will be win or lose quick.

Quote: longtimelancer

I know that in the long term, the casino wins and that you should choose games/wagers with a low house edge. However, is there any strategy for increasing your chances of winning in the short term?

I will be going to Vegas in 2 weeks, my first visit in 6 years, and I want to try to win a lot. I will be bringing $1000.

Should I play a game with a high variance? Any suggestions?

If it were me....well.....I don't know what you mean by winning a lot of money, how much you're willing to risk [ie: You wanna put $1K straight up on a number on roulette that'll likely lose?], what games you know how to play, etc.

Craps -- Do $64 across ($10 every number, $12 on 6&8, including the point), and [power] press a lot, preferably 3 times before you collect (6 & 8 go from $12 to $30 to $60 to $120). 5 & 9 go from $10 to $25 to $60 to $125 [not a full press]. 4 & 10 would go from $10 to $25 to $75 to $200. If you don't know how to play craps, this is probably too complicated, but might be able to learn in 2 weeks. Or you can just show up to a table and tell the dealer "I want to win a lot of money. give me every number and press the shit out of 'em until they're black [$100+]." You could also bet a hard-way (or a few) and parlay it twice....although that will get expensive and tough to win.

Video Poker -- $5 Bonus Poker Deluxe (any four of a kind pays 400 credits, or $2000), and hope you hit a 4 of a kind [or a few]. I saw a guy in an HL room continuously hit 4oaks on BPD with $5 or $10 denominations. Or any VP game, really....I just like BPD for variance because you can actually hit 4oaks a lot....not like going for a royal [that you almost certainly will not hit].

Sports Betting -- Pick a few teams, throw down some cash, and hope you can pick 4/4 [don't bet all your money, though, at least I wouldn't!].

Mississippi Stud -- You can win a lot quickly but you can also lose a lot quickly. But if you're playing for quarters ($25 ante), you could get a full house or quads and get paid out quite well [especially if you bet 3x, 3x, 3x]. Strategy is not that difficult, either.

I personally dislike roulette, but can obviously make money with the high payouts (35:1 and 17:1 preferably). Not to mention, it's a no-skill, easy to learn game, so you wouldn't have to learn any kind of strategy really.

I would avoid slot machines for the most part. But if you do choose to play a slot machine, try to play a 3-reel one (blazing 7's or similar game comes to mind).

I would avoid games like blackjack, baccarat, or other games/wagers that just pay even money...since it'll (most likely) be win/lose/win/lose/win/lose without a chance of getting a high ratio payout.

Let me clarify.

I will be there for two days only and I want to pay for my vacation which will be around $1000. I will bring $1000 which I won't mind losing too much.

So I don't need to win "a lot of money". I just want to double my $1000.

I know how to play craps but I don't know BJ too well.

I was leaning towards Caribbean Stud Poker which I have practiced online and seems to have a nice trade-off between edge and variance.

Quote: Neutrino

Urghhhhh refer to my other thread about how "long term" is a misnomer for EV. and therefore there is no "short term +EV"

Lay me 2 to 1 flipping coins and I'll show you some outstanding short term +EV.

1. Go to Casino Royale.

2. Bet $50 on Pass line.

3. If 4,5,6,8,9,10 is rolled make an odds bet for $950. If WIN quit. If LOSE quit.

4. If 2,3,7,11,12 is rolled go back to step 2.

Quote: 1arrowheaddr

1. Go to Casino Royale.

2. Bet $50 on Pass line.

3. If 4,5,6,8,9,10 is rolled make an odds bet for $950. If WIN quit. If LOSE quit.

4. If 2,3,7,11,12 is rolled go back to step 2.

Good plan, but don't they still have 100-1 on the $5 tables? If so, replace the $50 line bet with a $10 line bet.

No, Casino Royale has only 1 craps table now and it's 20x odds. If there are 50x or 100x odds some where in LV he should go there instead.

Quote: longtimelancer

I know that in the long term, the casino wins and that you should choose games/wagers with a low house edge. However, is there any strategy for increasing your chances of winning in the short term?

I will be going to Vegas in 2 weeks, my first visit in 6 years, and I want to try to win a lot. I will be bringing $1000.

Should I play a game with a high variance? Any suggestions?

I have a suggestion that will allow you to win, but not a lot. Maybe with other suggestions, you can find something that works. Or you will end up broke, since everything is -EV.

Flat-betting at blackjack, while playing perfect strategy, will almost always lead you to being ahead at some point because of the volatile fluctuations. So once you are ahead one bet, cash out. And this is something you can pretty consistently do, if you are willing to never give up and play for hours--maybe even throw an occasional desperation side bet out if you get too far behind.

This whole premise is a bad idea though.

Quote: Sonuvabish

I have a suggestion that will allow you to win, but not a lot. Maybe with other suggestions, you can find something that works. Or you will end up broke, since everything is -EV.

Flat-betting at blackjack, while playing perfect strategy, will almost always lead you to being ahead at some point because of the volatile fluctuations. So once you are ahead one bet, cash out. And this is something you can pretty consistently do, if you are willing to never give up and play for hours--maybe even throw an occasional desperation side bet out if you get too far behind.

This whole premise is a bad idea though.

What's the point of cashing out so often?

Quote: RS

What's the point of cashing out so often?

I think he meant, you only play once, and if you are ahead, cash out and don't play again.

Quote: sodawater

You should take the $1000 and play $1-2 no limit hold em poker against drunk people. Assuming you know how to play poker well.

The fact that he's asking the question means he's not good at poker.

"Make money in the short term"
If there was an accurate response to this question, no one would be here to answer you! Lol.
You have to get lucky.
Would you prefer trying to get lucky once or multiple times?
If you want to get lucky once, I'd say $1000 on banker in baccarat.
According to the math guys on here, best to wait for a couple player wins to go by, then bet banker.
(Hahahaa, jk). But that is your best bet in my opinion.
If you want to have fun and try to get lucky numerous times, I would suggest blackjack or craps.
You would have to do a bit of studying up if you aren't familiar with these games to improve your chances of winning.
You can't go play a game for a while with no concept and expect to win. You could do that with baccarat though.
Print a basic strategy card off this site to bring to the black jack table.
This site also has videos for learning craps and blackjack.

Quote: pokerface

like the guy featured in the news a couple of years ago, put all his money on one spot of high limit Roulette (single zero).
Either lose all his money, or become rich in one spin.

I don't remember this (well, except on an episode of South Park, and once on the old Phil Silvers show), but I do remember a reality show from England where somebody literally (and I literally mean literally, if I heard correctly) sold everything he had and bet it all on a single roulette spin (but it wasn't a number - it was red or black, and, IIRC, he was going to bet one way, but a poll of viewers got him to bet the other way, and he ended up winning).

As for the OP, it depends on what is meant by "make money" and "short term." The two answers that come to mind are:
(a) what pretty much everybody else is suggesting - bet as much as you can on something with a low house edge, like the Don't Pass line in craps or the Banker in baccarat;
(b) if you're willing to risk much more than you're willing to make, some sort of Martingale.

When you get to Vegas check out the enormous built casinos. Everything you see was built and paid for with people going there with your same hopes. If there was anyway possible to be successful none of it would exist.

Just have a good time and budget your funds to last your stay. If lady luck is on your shoulder anything could happen.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I think he meant, you only play once, and if you are ahead, cash out and don't play again.

Yeah, you would stop playing after you won.