Rigged Game Betting
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knew you'd win 2 out of every 3 bets, what
betting scheme would you use. You don't know
what the next outcome is, just that you'll win
2 out of 3. And you can't sit there all day or they'll
catch on, so it has to be for brief periods, 15-20
bets and you leave. Pays 1/1.
You want maximum return on your bets. What would
you do.
Quote: EvenBobIf you figured out how a game was rigged and
knew you'd win 2 out of every 3 bets, what
betting scheme would you use. You don't know
what the next outcome is, just that you'll win
2 out of 3. And you can't sit there all day or they'll
catch on, so it has to be for brief periods, 15-20
bets and you leave. Pays 1/1.
You want maximum return on your bets. What would
you do.
Somewhat-flippant answer: Flat bet table max until they show me the door.
Seriously though, this question is so far outside the realm of my reality that I have no real answer. It would obviously depend on the context.
I'm sure some of the elite APs have had edges this big occasionally. I'll let them answer seriously.
Quote: AcesAndEightsSomewhat-flippant answer: Flat bet table max until they show me the door.
Seriously though, this question is so far outside the realm of my reality that I have no real answer. It would obviously depend on the context.
You have a huge edge on every hand, so there's no "betting scheme" required. You just bet as much as you can within the circumstances.
I'm sure some of the elite APs have had edges this big occasionally. I'll let them answer seriously.
This was exactly my answer, without the flippancy. I'll take a net 1 every 3 hands without trying to out-guess the sequence of the wins.
Quote: AcesAndEightsSomewhat-flippant answer: Flat bet table max until they show me the door.
Seriously though, this question is so far outside the realm of my reality that I have no real answer. It would obviously depend on the context.
I'm sure some of the elite APs have had edges this big occasionally. I'll let them answer seriously.
What if it were the case that playing less than table max meant you were less likely to be noticed, and thus could play for a longer period of time ?
bets or the spotlight will be on you immediately.
I'm curious about this because players are
always saying they'd have it made if they
won 2 out of 3. It does you no good if they
back you off the fifth time you're there
because you win too much. Flat betting
would suck for smaller amounts under $25.
Parlay? Some kind of progression for sure.
Quote: michael99000What if it were the case that playing less than table max meant you were less likely to be noticed, and thus could play for a longer period of time ?
Even with smaller amounts they'd catch on sooner or later that
you never lose. It has to be for short periods, like a BJ counter
does.
Quote: EvenBobIf you figured out how a game was rigged and
knew you'd win 2 out of every 3 bets, what
betting scheme would you use. You don't know
what the next outcome is, just that you'll win
2 out of 3. And you can't sit there all day or they'll
catch on, so it has to be for brief periods, 15-20
bets and you leave. Pays 1/1.
You want maximum return on your bets. What would
you do.
Dose it happen for sure every 2 out of 3 or does it just average that?
Whats the max bet and the min bet?
Is this a machine or a live game? I assume live since you said back off
I would be more concerned that a normal person would find out about it, and not know how to preserve it, then burn it out quick.
You should sometimes play it and force a loss during that time on purpose if possible. Obviously you should make sure your wins are much greater then your losses.
Quote: AxelWolfDose it happen for sure every 2 out of 3 or does it just average that?
It's an average. A parlay might work best. Bet $25
and try to get 4 in a row right, rebetting your winnings
every time. You only ever risk the $25 on any sequence.
This was the way the people bet in the early days of
casinos in EU. You could make a small amount of money
last a long time, and score well if you got lucky.
Quote: EvenBobIt's an average. A parlay might work best. Bet $25
and try to get 4 in a row right, rebetting your winnings
every time. You only ever risk the $25 on any sequence.
.
I don't like that idea.
So if it goes W W W L W W W L , I'm 6-2 with nothing to show for it.
The information you have provided is not enough to figure out how best to play it. Let say you did crush it what would they then do? Toss you out and continue with rigging in place? Or would change the way its rigged? Do they even know its rigged? Is it 100% sure that crushing it will expose it? Best way would to get a person who has a good story BIG player someone who is a business owner successful doctor or something like that. Put some cover play on other games betting big. Someone that just seems to be going on tilt.Quote: EvenBobIt's an average. A parlay might work best. Bet $25
and try to get 4 in a row right, rebetting your winnings
every time. You only ever risk the $25 on any sequence.
This was the way the people bet in the early days of
casinos in EU. You could make a small amount of money
last a long time, and score well if you got lucky.
This is a table game?
post an add on Craig list:WANTED Gay black disabled veteran .Quote: tongnirecruit an overweight black woman, a chain-smoking asian man, a well-endowed latina girl, and an indian guy wearing a turban and have them come in on different days and times and bet slightly under table max while tipping heavily and drinking. ever seen an overweight black woman backed off for advantage play? probably not. racial stereotypes are a powerful thing. if i inhabited the body of a black woman, i would be richer than oprah.
Quote: michael99000I don't like that idea.
So if it goes W W W L W W W L , I'm 6-2 with nothing to show for it.
You're bound to hit 4 in a row periodically
if you win 2 out 3, it's inevitable. In your
sequence you lost $50, do 4 in a row and
you profit $375 minus the $50 you lost.
Quote: Lemieux66I would bet 100 dollars a hand, using greens, until physically couldn't bet anymore.
That's why I said the sessions have to be short
and the bets 25 or less. Its a rigged game, if
you bet the way you suggested you would be
escorted out in no time.
Quote: AxelWolfBob, is this just all hypothetical or do you really think you found something like this?
Then bring in the next guy.Quote: EvenBobThat's why I said the sessions have to be short
and the bets 25 or less. Its a rigged game, if
you bet the way you suggested you would be
escorted out in no time.
Quote: EvenBobThat's why I said the sessions have to be short
and the bets 25 or less. Its a rigged game, if
you bet the way you suggested you would be
escorted out in no time.
This becomes tough because if you keep winning at this rate the cameras might notice you no matter what you bet.
Quote: michael99000If it's the game itself that's rigged, and not some sort of AP method being used by only certain players, then that means everyone who sits down and plays is winning an average of 66% of the time.
Not at all. They haven't figured it out, you're
the only one.
Quote: michael99000If it's the game itself that's rigged, and not some sort of AP method being used by only certain players, then that means everyone who sits down and plays is winning an average of 66% of the time. No game bleeding money like that will last, casinos will recognize it rather quickly. It won't be around long, so I'd flat bet the max.
Crazy 4 Poker at Hollywood Columbus with a non-mandatory "Super Bonus" bet lasted at least 2 days. It was roughly 30% player edge and cost the casino over a quarter million, iirc.
Quote: tringlomaneCrazy 4 Poker at Hollywood Columbus with a non-mandatory "Super Bonus" bet lasted at least 2 days. It was roughly 30% player edge and cost the casino over a quarter million, iirc.
How does the fact that they constantly needed to order chip fills at a carnival game not raise red flags quicker than that?
Quote: EvenBobIf you figured out how a game was rigged and
knew you'd win 2 out of every 3 bets, what
betting scheme would you use. You don't know
what the next outcome is, just that you'll win
2 out of 3. And you can't sit there all day or they'll
catch on, so it has to be for brief periods, 15-20
bets and you leave. Pays 1/1.
You want maximum return on your bets. What would
you do.
Kelly Criterion answers exactly this question.
no it doesn'tQuote: AxiomOfChoiceKelly Criterion answers exactly this question.
Quote: AxelWolfno it doesn't
Sure it does. It's almost identical to the example that Kelly used (in Kelly's example someone was signalling you with the actual results but there was a known error rate on the line that was being used)
How is it different?
Nothing answers HIS questionQuote: AxiomOfChoiceSure it does. It's almost identical to the example that Kelly used (in Kelly's example someone was signalling you with the actual results but there was a known error rate on the line that was being used)
How is it different?
You bet the House.
PRACTICALLY
You say the game is 'rigged'.
You did not explain what that means. There was a deliberate mistake by the casino to favour the player, I do not thinks so!
So the only thing I can think of is that the casino made a mistake in applying the rules of the game and that benefits the player.
I have seen this happened a few times when new games (or new side bets) have been introduced in small casinos. But the mistkes I have seen did not make such a big difference, they either reduced the HE or turned positive a little for the player. Not the 33% you suggest for this 'rigged' game.
One case I witness was a BJ sidebet with the rules wrongly applied making the sidebet postive by something like 2% off the top and with specific sidebet counting the Ev would get to like 10%-15%. I saw this game on the day I was leaving the specific place. I played it until I left. Then because I was not planning to go back I told the place to a friend whis is a Pro who went there and burned it in less than a week.
So in your game something similar might happen. Someone else might burn it.
If the Player EV is 33% and applies to all players the game is going to be burned on its own, the losses will start appearing very soon.
So you might as well benefit and play it as high as possible.
If you think is going to last (explain why?) then play it at lower amounts for a longer period.
Quote: AxelWolfBob, is this just all hypothetical or do you really think you found something like this?
I would be willing to "bet the house" that this is purely hypothetical.
Quote: FinsRuleThe vaguer the question, the harder it is to give good responses. Sorry Bob.
/thread
Well if it is, I wish he would just say so, so I can quit checking this thread,its a complete wast of time, it sees like a ploy to discuss more betting systems. Or he was on one of the other message boards, where there is some arguments about the best way to play something like this, possibly something that was really found that was found. Perhaps he is using to win some argument.Quote: AcesAndEightsI would be willing to "bet the house" that this is purely hypothetical.
/thread
I'm not sure but i knew about something like this in a casino I wouldn't be on here discussing it. Id have my happy ass at the casino.
Quote: AxelWolfWell if it is, I wish he would just say so, so I can quit checking this thread,its a complete wast of time, it sees like a ploy to discuss more betting systems. Or he was on one of the other message boards, where there is some arguments about the best way to play something like this, possibly something that was really found that was found. Perhaps he is using to win some argument.
I'm not sure but i knew about something like this in a casino I wouldn't be on here discussing it. Id have my happy ass at the casino.
Bob has stated multiple times that he knows a guy who uses a weird voodoo "intuition" to beat a fair roulette wheel consistently, that this guy never has losing sessions by knowing which numbers to bet. So take that as background.
And than add on that he is talking about what kind of "betting scheme" you need to beat a game with a HUGE, incomprehensible edge. I don't know what the point is, to be honest. You bet as much as you can get away with, that's the bottom line. If varying your bets to make you look like a marty player or positive progression player or something will buy you more time at the game, then sure, go for it. But the casino will be losing money to you so quickly that you should really just maximize your action as much as possible. That's pretty much all there is to it.
I disagree. Lets say there was a card game where the cards were marked by the manufacturers and you were the only one to spot this. You may not want to crush it in a small casino if you think they would start an investigation.Quote: AcesAndEightsBob has stated multiple times that he knows a guy who uses a weird voodoo "intuition" to beat a fair roulette wheel consistently, that this guy never has losing sessions by knowing which numbers to bet. So take that as background.
And than add on that he is talking about what kind of "betting scheme" you need to beat a game with a HUGE, incomprehensible edge. I don't know what the point is, to be honest. You bet as much as you can get away with, that's the bottom line. If varying your bets to make you look like a marty player or positive progression player or something will buy you more time at the game, then sure, go for it. But the casino will be losing money to you so quickly that you should really just maximize your action as much as possible. That's pretty much all there is to it.
In bobs case it would seem like he thinks he has found a roulette wheel that a large section of the wheel is coming up more often then it should, the average person may not notice this since its an entire section but he used the word rigged. perhaps he used that to avoid negative feedback
If I had a friend like Bobs friend, he would quickly became my best friend.
Quote: AxelWolfIf I had a friend like Bobs friend, he would quickly became my best friend.
I'm pretty sure that Bob has gone from pretending that he has a friend who can beat roulette to pretending that he can beat roulette.
As for the original question, it could have been just hypothetical.
Quote: EvenBobIf you figured out how a game was rigged and
knew you'd win 2 out of every 3 bets, what
betting scheme would you use. You don't know
what the next outcome is, just that you'll win
2 out of 3. And you can't sit there all day or they'll
catch on, so it has to be for brief periods, 15-20
bets and you leave. Pays 1/1.
You want maximum return on your bets. What would
you do.
Bet every other hand and you are an instant "winner" simple math for all those who want to work the numbers.
This is getting good one system player coaching the otherQuote: CrapsGeniousBet every other hand and you are an instant "winner" simple math for all those who want to work the numbers.
Quote: AxelWolfThis is getting good one system player coaching the other
What a great strategy! You have a 33% edge so sit out half the hands.
As far as the person who mentioned Kelly criterion, that would quickly become irrelevant as with a 33% player edge in this low variance game (Bob stated it pays even money), you will quickly get to the table max.
I can assure you, the ONE thing I wouldn't be doing with this game is going home to type about it here.....
Quote: SOOPOOAs far as the person who mentioned Kelly criterion, that would quickly become irrelevant as with a 33% player edge in this low variance game (Bob stated it pays even money), you will quickly get to the table max.
Yes, but you would like to get to the table max without going broke first.
Kelly Criterion is never irrelevant. Obviously you bet the max if the optimal bet is higher than the max.
