A few blackjack questions
February 16th, 2014 at 9:08:16 PM
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I recently made the switch from Hi-Lo with Ace Counting to Omega 2 after a 2k loss at the Revel. It was pretty disastrous but that's how it goes sometimes. Anyway, I'm very curious about this.
Revel has an 8 deck game with roughly 80% penetration, hit s17, split up to 4 hands, no surrender. My bankroll is 2500 right now. This all sounds rough, but I've been simply not betting until I'm +1 TC. I don't give a damn that people complain. I make up nonsensical reasons why I just happen to be betting at random times. My questions are these: I feel I should do 5 or 10 dollar tables. What should my unit spread be? I'm thinking 1-6 and gradually increase it as my bankroll grows. The pit bosses in AC only care about big things and large bets so there is literally no heat. Anyway, is this a fool proof plan unless I get seriously unlucky? Thanks.
Revel has an 8 deck game with roughly 80% penetration, hit s17, split up to 4 hands, no surrender. My bankroll is 2500 right now. This all sounds rough, but I've been simply not betting until I'm +1 TC. I don't give a damn that people complain. I make up nonsensical reasons why I just happen to be betting at random times. My questions are these: I feel I should do 5 or 10 dollar tables. What should my unit spread be? I'm thinking 1-6 and gradually increase it as my bankroll grows. The pit bosses in AC only care about big things and large bets so there is literally no heat. Anyway, is this a fool proof plan unless I get seriously unlucky? Thanks.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
February 16th, 2014 at 10:02:13 PM
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I think with that spread in AC you'll get some heat. But the folks who are already counting in AC might be able to help. I'm not sure if 1-6 on a H17 game will give you a great advantage or many opportunities, but it's better than nothing.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
February 16th, 2014 at 10:12:52 PM
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I feel like if I'm consistently betting with an advantage, and never ever less than 50%, that it's very hard to actually lose. The 1-6 is to just cover my ass in case of bad luck. I would probably add half units if the TC is almost 2 or 3 for example.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
February 17th, 2014 at 12:04:01 AM
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Quote: Lemieux66I feel like if I'm consistently betting with an advantage, and never ever less than 50%, that it's very hard to actually lose. The 1-6 is to just cover my ass in case of bad luck. I would probably add half units if the TC is almost 2 or 3 for example.
It's not hard to lose if you overbet your bankroll.
Consistently bet more than 2x Kelly and you eventually go broke with probability 1.
February 17th, 2014 at 3:24:46 AM
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Which is surely hardly to be overlooked by dealer, floor, pit and Eye who all notice this eventually, particularly if there are other players grumbling perhaps quite audibly.Quote: Lemieux66I feel like if I'm consistently betting with an advantage, and never ever less than 50%, that it's very hard to actually lose.
February 17th, 2014 at 4:04:48 AM
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I've been advised that if your bets are small, you are invisible. I've learned that Atlantic City only cares about major things. Taking them for a couple thousand a month? They don't care.
As for the grumblers, just be social. Cheer for their wins. Give basic strat advice if they don't know. It builds you emotional credit I've found.
As for the grumblers, just be social. Cheer for their wins. Give basic strat advice if they don't know. It builds you emotional credit I've found.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
February 17th, 2014 at 4:29:47 AM
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Quote: AxiomOfChoiceIt's not hard to lose if you overbet your bankroll.
Consistently bet more than 2x Kelly and you eventually go broke with probability 1.
I'm very cautious about this. It's why I'm even thinking of a 1-5 spread. Create certain money goals and increase the unit size by 1 once I reach them. I feel like my idea is sound but I have the nagging feeling I'm overlooking something or that I can do something better.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
February 17th, 2014 at 5:37:51 AM
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It sounds like you want to be conservative. For the moment a $2500 bankroll would convert to 125 $20 units. Here is what I might try (based on you goal of only gambling at break even or better)
Personally, I would probably gamble at TC between 0 and 1, because that will cost you virtually nothing, and substanially increase the number of hands you play. Best of luck.
| TC | Est Player Edge | Bet |
|---|---|---|
| <1 | <0% | 0 |
| 1-2 | 0%-0.5% | 10 |
| 2-3 | 0.5%-1.0% | 20 |
| 3-4 | 1.0%-1.5% | 30 |
| >4 | >1.5% | 40 |
Personally, I would probably gamble at TC between 0 and 1, because that will cost you virtually nothing, and substanially increase the number of hands you play. Best of luck.
February 17th, 2014 at 6:03:12 AM
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Thanks man. Sound advice. I might make each unit 10 dollars though, because I don't mind winning small at first. I also play poker, but in AC there is no single casino that have a good 1-2 game AND have good blackjack penetration. It's depressing. I'm posting my thoughts on the poker/casino of each AC place on other casinos section. Might be useful.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
February 17th, 2014 at 6:10:28 AM
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I hate to be the bearer of bad news...but sitting around and waiting for a good count...and then betting. Is the quickest way to get heat and noticed in the wrong way. Who else would do this besides a card counter? I've played a ton in AC...you're just not going to get away with this for long. I wish you the best but be careful.
February 17th, 2014 at 6:18:06 AM
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I do get some odd looks, I don't make much off comps, AND I have to run to other tables when mine breaks butttt it's the only way to beat an 8 deck game where they hit s17
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
February 17th, 2014 at 11:08:55 AM
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There are S17 tables in AC at lower limits.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
February 17th, 2014 at 12:22:01 PM
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But is there mid-shoe entry? I feel being in and out is far more important than the 17 rule.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
February 17th, 2014 at 12:26:17 PM
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Quote: Lemieux66I've been advised that if your bets are small, you are invisible. I've learned that Atlantic City only cares about major things. Taking them for a couple thousand a month? They don't care.
As for the grumblers, just be social. Cheer for their wins. Give basic strat advice if they don't know. It builds you emotional credit I've found.
Giving advice to BJ players? I think I hear the grumbling turn into a roar LOL
Gambling is a metaphor for life. Hang around long enough and it's all gone.
February 17th, 2014 at 12:37:41 PM
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Quote: Lemieux66But is there mid-shoe entry? I feel being in and out is far more important than the 17 rule.
Do you care where you play? There are three S17 tables in Resorts across from the high limit room. When sitting at them your back will be to the room. They are almost always $10 minimums weekdays and I've seen them at that on a Saturday afternoon. Penetration is dealer dependent at around 70% to 75% and they do allow mid shoe entry but can be sensitive to excess wonging out.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
February 17th, 2014 at 12:55:23 PM
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That's incredible. Not concerned where I play, but resorts is good because revel and taj give me rooms. I need to try that out.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
February 17th, 2014 at 12:59:11 PM
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Quote: ncfatcatGiving advice to BJ players? I think I hear the grumbling turn into a roar LOL
Lol if you give advice that WINS, they love you. Advice that gets them to lose, you get somewhat blamed. I like to say "what book says" and take credit when they win and blame the book when they lose lol
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
February 17th, 2014 at 1:22:08 PM
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Quote: Lemieux66I recently made the switch from Hi-Lo with Ace Counting to Omega 2 after a 2k loss at the Revel. It was pretty disastrous but that's how it goes sometimes. Anyway, I'm very curious about this.
I hear this story all the time - "man, I just got blown out using Count X, so I switched to Count Y."
I've got news for you, you have just as much chance losing 2K in a session with Omega 2. Maybe a tiny bit less chance, since it's technically a stronger count. But you're talking about tiny edges and percentages here. Any count will get you the money, if you are competent. And bumping up to a more complex count, you are oftentimes just as likely to make more mistakes, and thus cancel out whatever advantage.
Card-counting is not a guaranteed win; far from it. It's a statistically a +EV activity if carried out correctly, but you can win big or lose big on ANY day, even with the best count and the best counter. If you're rattled by losing 2K, then you need to make sure you are at peace with the potential outcomes on a short-term basis.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
February 17th, 2014 at 1:24:47 PM
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The harder the count system, the higher the chance you make a mistake that blows away the added advantage.
Use the system you are most comfortable with.
Use the system you are most comfortable with.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
February 17th, 2014 at 1:25:36 PM
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I was betting out of my bankroll as well. That was the main issue. I just have the capability of switching to a more powerful system with few or no errors so it's a helpful plan.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
February 17th, 2014 at 1:32:52 PM
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Really have to empathize the NO Errors. Few is way too many.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
February 17th, 2014 at 1:34:52 PM
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You lost half of your bankroll in a single session? And you blame the counting system? I would rather check my own math and probably stay away from casinos for a while.
February 17th, 2014 at 3:48:11 PM
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Partially. If you check my first post, I'm more about what my spread should be. That's far more important than the count.
I was being modest about the "few" errors. I don't want to pretend I'm perfect but I know I'm very good.
I was being modest about the "few" errors. I don't want to pretend I'm perfect but I know I'm very good.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
