Poll

14 votes (38.88%)
7 votes (19.44%)
15 votes (41.66%)

36 members have voted

Kickass
Kickass
Joined: Nov 12, 2013
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January 22nd, 2014 at 3:45:43 PM permalink
See http://www.nbcnews.com/technology/facebook-infectious-disease-will-lose-80-percent-users-says-princeton-2D11972165

I hope we will find a cure in the future.
Leave Katie alone. Rasul: Or what? Or I come back and break your F** legs
sodawater
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
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January 22nd, 2014 at 3:47:47 PM permalink
Quote: Kickass

See http://www.nbcnews.com/technology/facebook-infectious-disease-will-lose-80-percent-users-says-princeton-2D11972165

I hope we will find a cure in the future.



"facebook will lose 80% of its user base between 2015-2017"

i would love to take the under on that bet. no chance. maybe a slight decline but nothing like 80%.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
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January 22nd, 2014 at 3:52:25 PM permalink
What's a facebook?
Each day is better than the next
vendman1
vendman1
Joined: Mar 12, 2012
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January 22nd, 2014 at 3:56:24 PM permalink
Well I can tell you for sure that my wife has the disease...she's on that dumbass site 10 times a day I swear. It seems like a huge waste of time to me...but she'd say the same about this site...so whatever.
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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January 22nd, 2014 at 4:02:27 PM permalink
FB is the most fantastic thing if you have a
large extended family. My wife see's pics
of the grandkids who are 2000 miles
away almost every day. She stay's in contact
with her sisters and parents and people
she knew from HS. When the AF son is
deployed in the Mideast, which is coming
again in Ap, with FB and Skype he can talk
to his kids in one form or another every
day. It's a modern wonder.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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January 22nd, 2014 at 4:06:02 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

"facebook will lose 80% of its user base between 2015-2017"

i would love to take the under on that bet. no chance. maybe a slight decline but nothing like 80%.



I'm not making a prediction either way here, but would you have made the same bet about MySpace?

I would say that the main issue here is that they don't really have enough data to make any kind of statement about the accuracy of their model.
Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
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January 22nd, 2014 at 4:07:07 PM permalink
I once owned a camera that used films. If I still had it, I would donate it to a museum.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
BleedingChipsSlowly
BleedingChipsSlowly
Joined: Jul 9, 2010
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January 22nd, 2014 at 4:12:21 PM permalink
Facebook will fade and give way to social media more tuned to smaller mobile platforms, e.g. cell phones, tablets. I tip my hat to Zuck for timing the IPO perfectly 20 months ago. Sure, some people cling to it. That and their AOL mail addresses.
“You don’t bring a bone saw to a negotiation.” - Robert Jordan, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia
sodawater
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
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January 22nd, 2014 at 4:19:55 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I'm not making a prediction either way here, but would you have made the same bet about MySpace?

I would say that the main issue here is that they don't really have enough data to make any kind of statement about the accuracy of their model.



By the time MySpace got "big" (around when it was sold to newscorp) I had already moved on to facebook and was already telling my friends its design and usability was worlds better than MySpace. So I would never have predicted Myspace would retain its userbase. I would have taken the other side.

Facebook, right now, has some of the best engineers in the world working on its product. Its mobile messenger app is the best in the world, hands down, and is far better than Google Hangouts (which on its own is pretty good) and Apple's iMessage (which is doomed.)

Facebook's biggest competitor right now looks to be Google, but Google's two big forays into social networking were Buzz (a spectacular failure) and Plus (failing with a whimper rather than a bang). Google and Facebook compete for eyeballs, ad dollars, and the place as the "default" location for people's conversations, pictures, contacts, social networks, and timelines/scrapbooks.

I am not saying Facebook is going to beat Google, but I am saying that in 2014, its messenger app is the best in the world, its photo albums are the best in the world (and the most used), and I don't see its social network disappearing.

There are lots of articles saying "teens and tweens are abandoning facebook!" -- they are, but that's not facebook's target market anyway. Facebook has always been about adults sharing their lives, starting around college (now high school), and a huge part of its growth was powered by older adults using it to keep in touch with their old friends and extended family. Tweens don't have any old friends or children. They will when they are adults, though, and they'll probably use facebook to keep in touch with them.

As for the endgame of facebook vs google, here's how I see it playing out. In 2017, Google will still own search, PPC ads, and embedded ads. Google will be BIG into vertical integration like being a fiber ISP that then serves you Google content and ads, being an MVNO that serves you Google content and ads via its Android OS, and being a television/big screen network that shows live events like NFL games. Google will also be huge in bringing self-driving cars to our roads, which is closer than you think.

In 2017, I think facebook will be all about communication and staying in touch, much like it is now. So I don't see it losing anywhere near 80% of its userbase.
Mosca
Mosca
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
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January 22nd, 2014 at 4:22:18 PM permalink
I read this and I disagree. Facebook may have peaked, but it will not die so quickly, and certainly not in 1-3 years. And I can use the author's analogy to explain why.

Diseases often become co-opted by the host to become useful; look no further than gut bacteria. An infection can become part of the organism. Although younger people are leaving Facebook, far more older people are joining it, planning reunions with it, sharing recipes and photos (and glurge, of course). Organizations are using Facebook (rather than a dedicated website) for communication because it is more immediate and facilitates multi-directional communication better than a website or a forum. Facebook serves a purpose.

ETA: sodawater points out that Google is vertical. Facebook is horizontal. And numbers trump better technology, just ask Betamax.
NO KILL I

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