When does the House Edge work for the casino?

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January 11th, 2014 at 1:06:44 PM permalink

If the house edge manifests itself
on every bet and not just in the
long run, the casino should make
a profit every day, every week,
every month, every quarter. And
they don't, because the HE only
manifests itself after thousands
and thousands of bets. Theoretically
you think you see it on every bet, in
actual play you don't.

Anything can and will happen to the
player and the casino in the short
term because the HE is irrelevant at
that point. Talk to the guys who used
to own the GN until the craps player
came in one day took a few mil from
them and they had to sell the place.
Where was HE that day. In the long
term, where it always is.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

AxelWolf

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January 11th, 2014 at 1:16:56 PM permalink

Quote: EvenBob
If the house edge manifests itself
on every bet and not just in the
long run, the casino should make
a profit every day, every week,
every month, every quarter. And
they don't, because the HE only
manifests itself after thousands
and thousands of bets. Theoretically
you think you see it on every bet, in
actual play you don't.

Anything can and will happen to the
player and the casino in the short
term because the HE is irrelevant at
that point. Talk to the guys who used
to own the GN until the craps player
came in one day took a few mil from
them and they had to sell the place.
Where was HE that day. In the long
term, where it always is.

They have other costs that affect the profits, they have to pay dealers and management Promotions . The only time they lose In a quarter is if some wale gets lucky on hi-limit BAC.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

EvenBob

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January 11th, 2014 at 1:59:27 PM permalink

Quote: AxelWolf
The only time they lose In a quarter is if some wale gets lucky on hi-limit BAC.

If the HE manifested itself on every bet,
that wouldn't happen. The key word here
is 'manifest', which means to show evidence
of. You can't see the evidence of the HE on
a single bet, the house can win or lose, it's
gambling in the short term just like you are.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

rainy

rainy

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January 11th, 2014 at 3:20:03 PM permalink

In terms of the question for "When does the house edge work for the casino?", my answer would be all the time.

For example, if a casino wins every single bet the player has made in a casino for 1 full day, the casino would have made money. The house edge, would show that the casino made MORE money then if the house didn't have an edge calculated.

Now, on the flip side. If the casino lost every single bet the player has made for 1 full day, the casino would have lost money. The house edge would show that the casino lost LESS money then if the house didn't have an edge calculated.

The reason the odds bet in craps is considered the best bet in a casino is because there is NO house edge calculated. Meaning, it isn't about winning or losing the odds bet, but of the pay-out/pay-ins.

So, in actuality, the house edge DOES manifest itself in every bet.
example - Baccarat since it's a heads/tails game essentially. On the banker bet, the house edge comes from the commission. On the player bet, the house edge comes from the fact that banker wins more then player. Since the player bet has a 1.2% House edge, when a player bet wins, the house should pay more then even money. But, they don't, which is why the house has a 1.2% edge on every single player bet.

skrbornevrymin

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January 11th, 2014 at 3:22:48 PM permalink

Each time a bet is resolved, the house edge is applied to the bet because the games are rigged/designed to be that way. The house edge is small and sometimes (in the short run or on an individual bet) the amount paid out is more than the amount taken in, but overall (in the long run) more money will be taken in than is paid out - the difference being the house edge. Over time the actual house edge will become the same as the mathematical house edge (or very close to it, depending on how well the math was done, and if it took in to account ALL of the factors including random bias, cheating, bet/bankroll limits, etc.), The variance between the actual application of the house edge and the mathematical house edge may allow a gambler to be ahead or behind in the short run, but over the long run the actual and the mathematical should come into allignment with each other.

Also, the gross profit that a casino makes from gambling is probably higher than the mathematical edge applied to the actual bets that were made because most gamblers will quit or be forced to stop betting when the variance is in the casino's favor. In other words, they quit when they are losing or run out of money. Granted, there are a few casino patrons who will quit after a big win or at least while they are ahead, but I would be willing to bet that most do not.

FleaStiff

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January 11th, 2014 at 3:32:17 PM permalink

The house edge exists at all times and is applied to the wagers when bets are resolved. To a curious spectator, the house edge is nothing more than what a casino does so as to be profitable versus some sort of neutral charity that pays out at true odds for an event. To a bettor, the house edge has a more effective application to his bankroll. If the bettor loses, the croupier takes the bettor's five dollars if the bettor wins the croupier pays five dollars but takes the bettor's Twenty-Six Cents.

The bettor focuses on the five dollars, the green eye shade mathematician for the casino focuses on the twenty-six cents.
Each is correct. Each is incorrect. The man who won the five dollars focuses on his winnings and his new girl friend's boobs as she happily jumps up and down exclaiming "We Won". The green eye shade guy may be happier when the house takes the bettor's five dollars but he is quite happy focus on the twenty six cents because its that green eye shade guy who knows that one night's numbers mean very little. The relentless munching of twenty six cents is what keeps the casino in business. All a casino needs is customers with wads of cash and time.

The Bettor and the Accountant are each aware of other "thumbs on the scale": alcohol, females, music, social groups, festive atmospheres.... these are all house edges that lack precision measurement.

EvenBob

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January 11th, 2014 at 3:53:35 PM permalink

Quote: FleaStiff
The house edge exists at all times .

Yup. But it doesn't make money (manifest itself)
for the casino on every bet, only in the long term
on thousands of bets. If it made money on every
bet, the casino would never have a losing month
on gaming, and they do all the time.

Like Tongni said on the 9th:

"You can bring down the house edge in most of these games to razor thin margins. Depending on how you structure your play, it can basically be 0%. I don't see why it's unreasonable to think someone working against a small house edge can go on a long sustained run, especially when the bulk of his results will be decided by a few large bets...The "long run" can be a very long time, even on a low variance game like baccarat. Just depends on how you structure your play and wagers."

Even with the HE in place, it can be worked around
if you know what you're doing. And many do know
exactly what they're doing.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

MangoJ

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January 11th, 2014 at 4:06:04 PM permalink

There are different views on that question, and both could be true:

You could view a specific casino bet as a "fair bet" (with no HE) with an implied "ante" (which is kept in any case). The ante is implicitel deducted from your bet each time you bet, but is collected only after the bet resolved - win or loss. Here the ante is the HE, and applies win or loss.

A different view is: the casino short-pays you in less-than-fair payouts. Every time you win, a HE-proportional amount is deducted from your "fair win". Here, the HE applies only to the loss.

Both descriptions are equivalent. Getting odds 1.95:1 of an 50% event is either an implied $.25 ante on a $10 bet paying ag 2:1, (i.e. betting $9.75 for a potential $19.50 payoff). Or a $.50 deduction from your win at $20.

AcesAndEights

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January 11th, 2014 at 4:36:44 PM permalink

My god, we've stooped this low? Jesus Christ.

"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer

thecesspit

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January 11th, 2014 at 4:49:48 PM permalink

If you take the house edge to be the expected value, then the house edge is on every bet, before it's made.

The actual value of the bet (win or lose) is where the house makes or loses money. As clearly it pays out, or takes in cash every time a bet is resolved. If you want to get technical, on some wagers it has the money before the bet is resolved and pays out when it loses. But in any event, the house's cash flow is based on those hundreds of pluses and minuses every day. But every bet has an expected value to the house (which may be not in their favour).

Words like 'anything can happen' and 'playing in the short term' is just guff that misses out the simple fact that the variance on a single bet is much much larger than the size of the house edge on that bet. Or even on a short sequence of bets. But we can still easily work out what sorts of things can happen in the short term, with how much regularity, and work out what happens in 10 bets as well as we can what happens in 10,000,000 bets. The picture is easier to read on the second than than the first, but pretending that all the 'math' doesn't work over ten bets is to be ignorant of the mathematics of probability.

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

scepticus

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January 11th, 2014 at 5:00:19 PM permalink

I know I will die at some undefined date but I don't know when so I don't worry about it - so why should I worry about losing my bankroll in some undefined "Long Run" ? Until someone tells me when this Long Run will happen I will continue to ignore it . In any case, theoretical mathematicians will not allow us to win even without the House Edge because they claim that " he with the deepest pockets will win in the end ".
Gambling is about" beating the odds" so if you think you can't beat the odds then you shouldn't gamble . I think our human failings contribute more to casinos' profits than their HE.

AxelWolf

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January 11th, 2014 at 5:21:42 PM permalink

Quote: EvenBob

Even with the HE in place, it can be worked around
if you know what you're doing. And many do know
exactly what they're doing.

Can you explain what you mean by this? Are you saying you can consistently beat a casino is a -EV situation with money management.

I understand if they are doing something extra to gain an advantage. But, if you are saying people can use a selective betting system or money management then give a explanation how.

I would agree there are guys that are up money playing "coin flip bets" But it has nothing to do with money management or some system they think it working. its called LUCK. the dumbest guy in the world could achieve the same thing on a game like BAC.

I always laugh at guys that use the term smart BAC play. WTF seriously how smart do you have to be, to pick player or banker? Money management selective betting is not hard anyone can do it. Just set a limit, bet when you think you are due and hope for the best. If enough people try this someone will succeed this dose not mean they are BAC gurus or special in any way. At any moment they could start losing and never win again.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

AxiomOfChoice

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January 11th, 2014 at 6:57:06 PM permalink

Quote: EvenBob
If the HE manifested itself on every bet,
that wouldn't happen. The key word here
is 'manifest', which means to show evidence
of. You can't see the evidence of the HE on
a single bet, the house can win or lose, it's
gambling in the short term just like you are.

The reason that the house edge affects every bet is that when the house wins, they win more than they should, and when they lose, they lose less than they should.

Suppose you make a $19 bet on red in roulette. If you win, you win $19, and if you lose, you lose $19.

If there were no house edge, you could, instead, bet $18 to win $20. By betting $19 to win $19, you win $1 less when you win, and lose $1 more when you lose. Win or lose, the house edge costs you a dollar. The effect on EVERY SINGLE BET is that is costs you a dollar. It doesnt affect the outcome (you are just as likely to win the bet) but it affects the amount of money that changes hands, every single time.

thecesspit

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January 11th, 2014 at 7:15:37 PM permalink

Some of the Money Management guys are playing long Labouchere-like progressions, having carefully calculated that they are 86.732% likely to succeed (or some such number), and they ply these into a series of progressions, assuming that they'd never lose X sessions out of Y, because they live in the short term and 1 in 1,000 chances won't happen.

It's all trying to avoid the 'house edge' which still exists on every bet, and you just can't sum a series of negatives into a positive. You can change the variance, and turn a game from a series of single coin flips into bet on event X happening before Y number of bad events. The Martingale is one way. But if you then look at this new game, it's still got a negative expected value, but with wider variance, were you win a little most of the time, or lose a lot a little of the time. There's still a house edge in the new game. They may not have to pay it as often, but it's still a negative expectation game.

And that's fine. Just don't piss on my leg and call it an Advantage Play.

Others tell you can flat bet and read the results (reading random, streaks, variance, quarters of the moon). This is, as far as I can tell, akin to reading the entrails. They'll compare it to weather forecasting, but one of those two arts has a lot more basis in fact and repeatability behind it. As a clue, it's the one with a 24 hour TV channel dedicated to it.

Both methods start talking about discipline, money management (and then the evils of the casino, as well hit and run short sessions), as this is enough to ensure a win. Those things may all be necessary conditions. They are not sufficient conditions to have the upper hand. The mathematical models are very strong. Given the axioms of independent events, etc. The problem these geniuses have is that they can never point where the central axioms of probability theory are wrong. They'll bluster and bloviate, but a short education in Statistics seems to be much to hard for a reasonable assault on the logic behind them. Which is a shame. I'd have far more respect if they'd happily say 'oh well, I assume that the series of events are interdependent on a roulette wheel, so...'. But they never do. Because they don't really actually understand the little Maths they choose to use.

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

onenickelmiracle

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January 11th, 2014 at 7:36:40 PM permalink

You're too focused on losing months. Like has been said before, large bets can affect performance because a few people bet very large and win during this time and profits are still made from the smaller bettors.
You can be winning but can't win with a negative expectation game right. If you want, you could just make 1-3 bets containing every thing you're willing to lose and walk away either way. Casinos don't like it, but it can either be heaven or he'll for you. Again, just boils down to them needing to smooth out the bets and not gambling themselves.

I am a robot.

24Bingo

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January 11th, 2014 at 8:02:44 PM permalink

Quote: FleaStiff
The Bettor and the Accountant are each aware of other "thumbs on the scale": alcohol, females, music, social groups, festive atmospheres.... these are all house edges that lack precision measurement.

Well, no, these only affect volume. The scales are still right where they belong.

I'm going to say on wins and losses. I sort of imagine it as the casino playing a fair game, but on all bets, taking a fee. Since the casino is taking those risks, their bankroll isn't likely to exhibit a steady rise, but if they have any idea what they're doing, it will rise quickly enough to bankroll the "gamble."

The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.

EvenBob

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January 11th, 2014 at 8:24:44 PM permalink

Quote: thecesspit
I'd have far more respect if... .

Too bad having your respect is worth exactly
nothing. Maybe that's why they don't bother.
The only people they have to convince is
the casino, they're the only ones paying.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

EvenBob

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January 11th, 2014 at 8:36:05 PM permalink

Quote: AxiomOfChoice
but it affects the amount of money that changes hands, every single time.

No, it doesn't. The house says they'll pay me even
money if I bet red or black. If I bet $1000 on red and win
and leave, the HE did not effect that bet. It only
manifests itself in the long term. This is why casinos
hate hit and run players. Do you think the pit winks
and high fives each other after I go, congratulating
themselves on having the edge working for them
on that bet? I don't think so.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

AxiomOfChoice

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January 11th, 2014 at 8:53:03 PM permalink

Quote: EvenBob
No, it doesn't. The house says they'll pay me even
money if I bet red or black.

The fact that they pay you only even money instead of 20 to 18 is the house edge.

Quote:
If I bet $1000 on red and win
and leave, the HE did not effect that bet.

Of course it affected the bet! They paid you only $1000! They should have paid you $1111.11 and a ninth of a cent! Are you saying that underpaying you by $111.11 has no effect on you? Do you not understand the difference between getting paid $1000 and getting paid $1111.11? That difference is the house edge.

What if they paid you even less? Where do you draw the line? If the casino had "sucker day", where a $1000 bet on red paid only $20, and you bet and won, would you continue to say that the house edge didn't effect you? After all, you won $20!

Buzzard

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January 11th, 2014 at 8:56:48 PM permalink

" Do you think the pit winks
and high fives each other after I go, congratulating
themselves on having the edge working for them
on that bet? I don't think so. "

Is it possible those high fives are simply because you left ?

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

onenickelmiracle

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January 11th, 2014 at 8:59:59 PM permalink

Lets say the house edge is minimized as being important in these situations and variance is the key factor. I always thought about the whole casino having one customer betting the same as the group once a year and not playing the rest of the time. Pretty funny imagining a casino losing 900 million in one bet then praying the next year for a win. IF someone takes a big, hard and quick strategy, they have to stick with it and quit either way.

Slots have taken this path where there are 75 penny bets a spin compared to one 75 penny bet. If paybacks are the same, the penny method never offers the same chances for as many large payouts. Nobody is walking because they Don't think it can happen again. Zombie land. Can't play with bets as much because bet ranges are also smaller by half so people sometimes getting lucky or saved with mini martingales gone because so volatile and diverse. Slot players call it no bounce back.

I am a robot.

EvenBob

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January 11th, 2014 at 9:23:16 PM permalink

Quote: AxiomOfChoice
The fact that they pay you only even money instead of 20 to 18 is the house edge.

So how profit did the house make on my $1000 bet?

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

onenickelmiracle

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January 11th, 2014 at 9:47:41 PM permalink

Quote: EvenBob
So how profit did the house make on my $1000 bet?

You'll be back. That's how. It's like thinking of robbing a bank and not seeing the downside when you get caught or shot. If I get away, I won and if I don't I'm dead anyways so I can't lose. Obviously this person isn't valuing their life or freedom. Thinking this way is ignoring that the casino will get you eventually. Then the thoughts are I've won and probability doesn't have memory and I can do this winning forever. I'm neo, the almost zero but so powerful. This thinking happens day one and always returns as an original idea.

I am a robot.

EvenBob

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January 11th, 2014 at 9:52:24 PM permalink

Quote: onenickelmiracle
You'll be back. That's how. .

AHA! So you admit the HE does not manifest itself
on every bet, only in the long run. I have to play
and play and play for it to truly effect me. The HE
is irrelevant to a player. What is relevant is he has
a poor bet selection and is playing against an
opponent that has an endless BR. That's why he's
doomed, the silly long run HE is meaningless
to the player.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

24Bingo

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January 11th, 2014 at 9:55:04 PM permalink

You'll be back, or someone else will be there. "Hit and run" players don't always win, and the more determined they are to quit while they're ahead, the further behind they'll get. You have such delusions of grandeur as to how your own personal success affects, the house, but you have yet to grasp that they have no interest in who makes a bet, only what bets are made.

In the short term, you might get lucky, but you've still paid in, just your luck has gotten you far enough above par to have won. From the house's perspective, all that luck is wrapped up in a big bundle. They'd love you to come back, but they're as happy for someone else to take your place.

The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.

AxiomOfChoice

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January 11th, 2014 at 10:07:49 PM permalink

Quote: EvenBob
So how profit did the house make on my $1000 bet?

They should have paid you $1111.11. They paid you $1000.

EvenBob

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January 11th, 2014 at 10:12:49 PM permalink

Quote: AxiomOfChoice
They should have paid you $1111.11. They paid you $1000.

In other words, they made nothing, they lost $1000. Do
that enough times and they'll kick you out for not being
a good sport. Get enough people doing it, and they'll
lose money for the month, just like Steve Wynn said.
HE in place and working and everything.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

AxiomOfChoice

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January 11th, 2014 at 10:22:42 PM permalink

Quote: EvenBob
In other words, they made nothing, they lost $1000. Do
that enough times and they'll kick you out for not being
a good sport. Get enough people doing it, and they'll
lose money for the month, just like Steve Wynn said.
HE in place and working and everything.

So you think that if enough people bet $1000 on red in roulette, the casino will lose money for the month?

That is an interesting theory.

MathExtremist

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January 11th, 2014 at 10:28:11 PM permalink

Quote: EvenBob
If I bet $1000 on red and win
and leave, the HE did not effect that bet. It only
manifests itself in the long term.

The house edge never "effects a bet". The house edge is a property of the proposition itself, not of any given bet on that proposition. The edge on Red in American roulette is 5.26% all the time, even if you never bet on it at all.

As to the edge "manifesting" itself, the house edge isn't a mystical spectre that manifests itself only under certain conditions. In the case of roulette, the house edge is trivially calculated by examining the probability of all (two) outcomes, namely 18/38 and 20/38, and their respective values, namely -1 and +1 (from the standpoint of the house). Since those probabilities and values are constant for each spin of the roulette wheel, the house edge is likewise constant for each spin of the roulette wheel. Anyone who makes that bet, at any time, subjects their money to that same set of probabilities and values, and therefore that house edge. Therefore, in the wording of the OP, the house edge is always "working for the casino."

"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563

rainy

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January 11th, 2014 at 10:28:34 PM permalink

Quote: EvenBob
In other words, they made nothing, they lost $1000. Do
that enough times and they'll kick you out for not being
a good sport. Get enough people doing it, and they'll
lose money for the month, just like Steve Wynn said.
HE in place and working and everything.

It seems like you are looking at the House Edge in terms of % chance of winning/losing. The way house edge is calculated needs two factors not just one. The first factor you have correct. It has to do with the % chance of a player winning/losing on a round of the game. The 2nd factor is what the payout is.

For example, a coin will have a 50/50 chance of winning/losing. If you are paid even money on your bet, there would be 0% house edge. But, if someone told you if you win you will get half your bet, if you lose, you lose the entire bet. Suddenly, the house edge is now at 50%.

Let's say you bet $100 and you won. You walk away with a $50 profit. In terms of income, the house has lost $50, but the house edge is still working for the casino for that bet because they should have lost a full $100 IF there was NO house edge.

thecesspit

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January 11th, 2014 at 11:05:05 PM permalink

Quote: EvenBob
Too bad having your respect is worth exactly
nothing. Maybe that's why they don't bother.

If I cared what you thought, Bob, I'd give my self a lobotomy.

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

7craps

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January 11th, 2014 at 11:05:15 PM permalink

Quote: AxiomOfChoice
What if they paid you even less?
Where do you draw the line?
If the casino had "sucker day", where a $1000 bet on red paid only $20, and you bet and won, would you continue to say that the house edge didn't effect you? After all, you won $20!

"sucker day"
great idea.

to contact Telly Savalas people, start a new casino "Who loves ya, baby" Casino
many "sucker days" suckers are sweet

should easily draw 10s of millions of visitors each year, he was a cool guy... maybe the coolest ever.
met him at the Riviera Casino in 1984.
he looked and was just like he was on TV.
sucker and all.

"Who loves ya, baby?"

winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)

7craps

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January 11th, 2014 at 11:06:24 PM permalink

Quote: rainy
For example, a coin will have a 50/50 chance of winning/losing. If you are paid even money on your bet, there would be 0% house edge. But, if someone told you if you win you will get half your bet, if you lose, you lose the entire bet. Suddenly, the house edge is now at 50%.

Let's say you bet $100 and you won. You walk away with a $50 profit. In terms of income, the house has lost $50, but the house edge is still working for the casino for that bet because they should have lost a full $100 IF there was NO house edge.

house edge in your example is -50/200 or 25% not 50%.
I catch myself at times.
player was shorted $50 and should have had $200 returned to him

the casino still needs many bets so the function of ev/sd (expected value and standard deviation) works in their favor.
The main reason IMO why so many online casinos cheat their players,
they run their business in fear
of not having enough bets coming in at a decent average amount wagered
so the ev can dominate the sd and show profits
or also just does not understand how the business model of a casino using house edge bets actually works.
example

say a casino has an avg bet of $5 on the even money bets at 00Roulette

N	360 bets in 1 month total players
ev	-94.73684211
sd	94.73684211
z	-1
norms	0.158655254 << prob that the players have a net profit (the casino shows a net loss after 360 bets made)
1 in	6.302974375

N	1440 bets in 1 month total players
ev	-378.9473684
sd	189.4736842
z	-2
norms	0.022750132<< prob that the players have a net profit (the casino shows a net loss after 1440 bets made)
1 in	43.95578902

N	3240 bets in 1 month total players
ev	-852.6315789
sd	284.2105263
z	-3
norms	0.001349898<< prob that the players have a net profit (the casino shows a net loss after 3240 bets made)
1 in	740.7966947

N	5760 bets in 1 month total players
ev	-1515.789474 average profit (avg loss from all players)
sd	378.9473684 the +/- range
z	-4
norms	3.16712E-05<< prob that the players have a net profit (the casino shows a net loss after 5750 bets made)
1 in	31,574.38553

for the casino, it is just a numbers game
more players, more bets, more certain of profits
pay them less than true odds on any win
take more on every loss than fair odds would be

winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)

onenickelmiracle