blount2000
blount2000
Joined: Oct 15, 2010
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July 8th, 2016 at 2:55:59 PM permalink
I've got a few tickets for tonight. Five to be exact.

Although sometimes I think winning that much money could cause trouble! I think a nice sweet-spot (for me) would be maybe $2M up front and then $350K per year (indexed) for life.

That said, I'll be pleased to win anything at all tonight since losing seems to be the more likely option!
You serious, Clark?
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
Joined: May 22, 2013
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July 8th, 2016 at 3:19:26 PM permalink
I have not bought a ticket, and I was just at the 'beer store' a little while ago.
People were lined up to buy tickets.
I was buying beer.
Turns out, I might not be the sharpest tool in the shed......;-)
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
Homelessnyc
Homelessnyc
Joined: Jun 1, 2016
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July 8th, 2016 at 3:21:07 PM permalink
I got in at the pool at work.

Then some tickets on the way home
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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July 8th, 2016 at 5:51:57 PM permalink
Quote: Homelessnyc

I got in at the pool at work.

Then some tickets on the way home

Sounds like a lawsuit if your personal tickets win.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
rsactuary
rsactuary
Joined: Sep 6, 2014
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July 8th, 2016 at 6:25:05 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Sounds like a lawsuit if your personal tickets win.



Not if he's not organizing the pool and is not in control of the pool tickets.
rsactuary
rsactuary
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July 8th, 2016 at 6:25:20 PM permalink
I bought $20 myself. What the heck.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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July 8th, 2016 at 6:45:36 PM permalink
I bought enough tickets to guarantee I won't lose anything......ZERO! :-)
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Doc
Doc
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July 8th, 2016 at 6:52:15 PM permalink
Didn't really cost much, did it?
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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July 8th, 2016 at 9:55:26 PM permalink
Quote: rsactuary

Not if he's not organizing the pool and is not in control of the pool tickets.

l'm fairly sure if you suddenly had a winning ticket, even if you one time, many years ago talked about the possibility of adding money to a lottery pool you're getting sued.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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July 9th, 2016 at 12:11:33 AM permalink
So far, at least one sold. Indiana.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
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July 9th, 2016 at 6:57:39 AM permalink
I always buy 1 ticket.

The first ticket you buy takes you from 0 chance to 0< chance. It's diminishing returns after that.
rsactuary
rsactuary
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July 24th, 2022 at 8:58:42 AM permalink
I guess I'll break down and buy some tickets for Tuesday's drawing.

Interesting side effect of the rising interest rate environment is that it inflates the advertised jackpot amount. A couple years ago, I calculated the assumed earnings rate and it was at 1.75%. I re-calculated based on the current advertised jackpot / cash value and it appears to be about 3.7% now.
DRich
DRich
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July 24th, 2022 at 9:12:27 AM permalink
Quote: rsactuary

I guess I'll break down and buy some tickets for Tuesday's drawing.

Interesting side effect of the rising interest rate environment is that it inflates the advertised jackpot amount. A couple years ago, I calculated the assumed earnings rate and it was at 1.75%. I re-calculated based on the current advertised jackpot / cash value and it appears to be about 3.7% now.
link to original post



I spent my $2 and got a ticket.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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July 24th, 2022 at 9:17:09 AM permalink
$800M jackpot?!
rushed to get $100k and buy,buy,buy.
reduced my odds of winning by 5 zeros. (thumbs up)

Good bet, right Wiz?
<batteries for sarcasm meter if anyone needs it>

To further improve my odds of hitting the top prize, i bought the 'Just the Jackpot' version where it's $3 for 2 tix (instead of $2 each) but it's only good for the grand prize.
You get paid nothing if you hit less than all 6 numbers.
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Jul 24, 2022
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
rxwine
rxwine
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July 24th, 2022 at 11:42:35 AM permalink
Iíd like to know what the youngest big time lotto winner is doing. He was only like 26 when he won something like 240 million.

(Iím sure i have the age and amount wrong though)
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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July 24th, 2022 at 12:45:29 PM permalink
Time to crunch some numbers...
In California, 75.3018 cents from every ticket purchased goes into the jackpot pool; I am assuming this is true for every other state.
Assuming a jackpot increase of $160 million from the previous draw, which CNN is reporting, that means 212.5 million tickets will be bought.

I think the next draw is an AP - if you take the annuity.
The EV of a ticket that hits the jackpot, assuming it is $790 million and 212.5 million tickets are bought, is $1.99. If you play a "jackpot or nothing" ticket, which costs $1.50, this is an AP. Even if you play a "regular" ticket, the EV of a ticket that doesn't hit the jackpot is 24.66 cents, so the total EV of the $2 ticket is about $2.24.
Note that the non-jackpot EV assumes you are not playing in California, where some strange state regulations requires that all payout levels be pari-mutuel. (I am not entirely sure why. One version is, the state's Supreme Court said that fixed payouts turns the lottery into a de facto slot machine, which is illegal - but scratch-off tickets have fixed probabilities and fixed payouts, and those are fine.)

If you take the announced cash lump sum of $464.4 million, the EV of the ticket is only about $1.66 for a $2 "regular" ticket, or $1.42 for a $1.50 "jackpot-only" ticket.
rxwine
rxwine
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July 24th, 2022 at 12:48:17 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds


...You get paid nothing if you hit less than all 6 numbers.
link to original post

I might feel a little ill if I hit 5 of 6 because it being a bet where I opted out of everything but the jackpot
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
unJon
unJon 
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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July 24th, 2022 at 5:18:50 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Time to crunch some numbers...
In California, 75.3018 cents from every ticket purchased goes into the jackpot pool; I am assuming this is true for every other state.
Assuming a jackpot increase of $160 million from the previous draw, which CNN is reporting, that means 212.5 million tickets will be bought.

I think the next draw is an AP - if you take the annuity.
The EV of a ticket that hits the jackpot, assuming it is $790 million and 212.5 million tickets are bought, is $1.99. If you play a "jackpot or nothing" ticket, which costs $1.50, this is an AP. Even if you play a "regular" ticket, the EV of a ticket that doesn't hit the jackpot is 24.66 cents, so the total EV of the $2 ticket is about $2.24.
Note that the non-jackpot EV assumes you are not playing in California, where some strange state regulations requires that all payout levels be pari-mutuel. (I am not entirely sure why. One version is, the state's Supreme Court said that fixed payouts turns the lottery into a de facto slot machine, which is illegal - but scratch-off tickets have fixed probabilities and fixed payouts, and those are fine.)

If you take the announced cash lump sum of $464.4 million, the EV of the ticket is only about $1.66 for a $2 "regular" ticket, or $1.42 for a $1.50 "jackpot-only" ticket.
link to original post



You are comparing a cash outflow today to an annuity without any discount rate. That doesnít work.

Also want to confirm your calculation included the probability of multiple winners splitting?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ahiromu
ahiromu
Joined: Jan 15, 2010
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July 24th, 2022 at 6:59:16 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

You are comparing a cash outflow today to an annuity without any discount rate. That doesnít work.



This is one of my huge pet peeves, they shouldn't be allowed to advertise the future value of the prize. This is my common answer to: "If you were dictator for a day, what mundane thing would you change?" types of questions. In any other accounting/financial situation, conflating the future and present day value of money is flat out incorrect, if not illegal. But the State gets to do it? What the hell.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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July 24th, 2022 at 8:44:58 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Time to crunch some numbers...
In California, 75.3018 cents from every ticket purchased goes into the jackpot pool; I am assuming this is true for every other state.
Assuming a jackpot increase of $160 million from the previous draw, which CNN is reporting, that means 212.5 million tickets will be bought.

I think the next draw is an AP - if you take the annuity.
The EV of a ticket that hits the jackpot, assuming it is $790 million and 212.5 million tickets are bought, is $1.99. If you play a "jackpot or nothing" ticket, which costs $1.50, this is an AP. Even if you play a "regular" ticket, the EV of a ticket that doesn't hit the jackpot is 24.66 cents, so the total EV of the $2 ticket is about $2.24.
Note that the non-jackpot EV assumes you are not playing in California, where some strange state regulations requires that all payout levels be pari-mutuel. (I am not entirely sure why. One version is, the state's Supreme Court said that fixed payouts turns the lottery into a de facto slot machine, which is illegal - but scratch-off tickets have fixed probabilities and fixed payouts, and those are fine.)

If you take the announced cash lump sum of $464.4 million, the EV of the ticket is only about $1.66 for a $2 "regular" ticket, or $1.42 for a $1.50 "jackpot-only" ticket.
link to original post



You are comparing a cash outflow today to an annuity without any discount rate. That doesnít work.

Also want to confirm your calculation included the probability of multiple winners splitting?
link to original post


Yes - I allowed for up to 7 winners, after which the amount added to the EV is less than $0.00001
rsactuary
rsactuary
Joined: Sep 6, 2014
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July 26th, 2022 at 10:44:50 PM permalink
No one won. Next jackpot estimated at 1.03B / 602.5 M. No doubt that will be revised up as we get closer to Friday.
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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July 27th, 2022 at 6:44:22 AM permalink
mods- we have 2 megamillions threads going.

can we lock one of them?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)

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