So, who's playing the Mega Millions?
Although sometimes I think winning that much money could cause trouble! I think a nice sweet-spot (for me) would be maybe $2M up front and then $350K per year (indexed) for life.
That said, I'll be pleased to win anything at all tonight since losing seems to be the more likely option!
People were lined up to buy tickets.
I was buying beer.
Turns out, I might not be the sharpest tool in the shed......;-)
Then some tickets on the way home
Sounds like a lawsuit if your personal tickets win.Quote: HomelessnycI got in at the pool at work.
Then some tickets on the way home
Quote: AxelWolfSounds like a lawsuit if your personal tickets win.
Not if he's not organizing the pool and is not in control of the pool tickets.
l'm fairly sure if you suddenly had a winning ticket, even if you one time, many years ago talked about the possibility of adding money to a lottery pool you're getting sued.Quote: rsactuaryNot if he's not organizing the pool and is not in control of the pool tickets.
The first ticket you buy takes you from 0 chance to 0< chance. It's diminishing returns after that.
Interesting side effect of the rising interest rate environment is that it inflates the advertised jackpot amount. A couple years ago, I calculated the assumed earnings rate and it was at 1.75%. I re-calculated based on the current advertised jackpot / cash value and it appears to be about 3.7% now.
Quote: rsactuaryI guess I'll break down and buy some tickets for Tuesday's drawing.
Interesting side effect of the rising interest rate environment is that it inflates the advertised jackpot amount. A couple years ago, I calculated the assumed earnings rate and it was at 1.75%. I re-calculated based on the current advertised jackpot / cash value and it appears to be about 3.7% now.
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I spent my $2 and got a ticket.
rushed to get $100k and buy,buy,buy.
reduced my odds of winning by 5 zeros. (thumbs up)
Good bet, right Wiz?
<batteries for sarcasm meter if anyone needs it>
To further improve my odds of hitting the top prize, i bought the 'Just the Jackpot' version where it's $3 for 2 tix (instead of $2 each) but it's only good for the grand prize.
You get paid nothing if you hit less than all 6 numbers.
(I’m sure i have the age and amount wrong though)
In California, 75.3018 cents from every ticket purchased goes into the jackpot pool; I am assuming this is true for every other state.
Assuming a jackpot increase of $160 million from the previous draw, which CNN is reporting, that means 212.5 million tickets will be bought.
I think the next draw is an AP - if you take the annuity.
The EV of a ticket that hits the jackpot, assuming it is $790 million and 212.5 million tickets are bought, is $1.99. If you play a "jackpot or nothing" ticket, which costs $1.50, this is an AP. Even if you play a "regular" ticket, the EV of a ticket that doesn't hit the jackpot is 24.66 cents, so the total EV of the $2 ticket is about $2.24.
Note that the non-jackpot EV assumes you are not playing in California, where some strange state regulations requires that all payout levels be pari-mutuel. (I am not entirely sure why. One version is, the state's Supreme Court said that fixed payouts turns the lottery into a de facto slot machine, which is illegal - but scratch-off tickets have fixed probabilities and fixed payouts, and those are fine.)
If you take the announced cash lump sum of $464.4 million, the EV of the ticket is only about $1.66 for a $2 "regular" ticket, or $1.42 for a $1.50 "jackpot-only" ticket.
I might feel a little ill if I hit 5 of 6 because it being a bet where I opted out of everything but the jackpotQuote: 100xOdds
...You get paid nothing if you hit less than all 6 numbers.
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Quote: ThatDonGuyTime to crunch some numbers...
In California, 75.3018 cents from every ticket purchased goes into the jackpot pool; I am assuming this is true for every other state.
Assuming a jackpot increase of $160 million from the previous draw, which CNN is reporting, that means 212.5 million tickets will be bought.
I think the next draw is an AP - if you take the annuity.
The EV of a ticket that hits the jackpot, assuming it is $790 million and 212.5 million tickets are bought, is $1.99. If you play a "jackpot or nothing" ticket, which costs $1.50, this is an AP. Even if you play a "regular" ticket, the EV of a ticket that doesn't hit the jackpot is 24.66 cents, so the total EV of the $2 ticket is about $2.24.
Note that the non-jackpot EV assumes you are not playing in California, where some strange state regulations requires that all payout levels be pari-mutuel. (I am not entirely sure why. One version is, the state's Supreme Court said that fixed payouts turns the lottery into a de facto slot machine, which is illegal - but scratch-off tickets have fixed probabilities and fixed payouts, and those are fine.)
If you take the announced cash lump sum of $464.4 million, the EV of the ticket is only about $1.66 for a $2 "regular" ticket, or $1.42 for a $1.50 "jackpot-only" ticket.
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You are comparing a cash outflow today to an annuity without any discount rate. That doesn’t work.
Also want to confirm your calculation included the probability of multiple winners splitting?
Quote: unJonYou are comparing a cash outflow today to an annuity without any discount rate. That doesn’t work.
This is one of my huge pet peeves, they shouldn't be allowed to advertise the future value of the prize. This is my common answer to: "If you were dictator for a day, what mundane thing would you change?" types of questions. In any other accounting/financial situation, conflating the future and present day value of money is flat out incorrect, if not illegal. But the State gets to do it? What the hell.
Quote: unJonQuote: ThatDonGuyTime to crunch some numbers...
In California, 75.3018 cents from every ticket purchased goes into the jackpot pool; I am assuming this is true for every other state.
Assuming a jackpot increase of $160 million from the previous draw, which CNN is reporting, that means 212.5 million tickets will be bought.
I think the next draw is an AP - if you take the annuity.
The EV of a ticket that hits the jackpot, assuming it is $790 million and 212.5 million tickets are bought, is $1.99. If you play a "jackpot or nothing" ticket, which costs $1.50, this is an AP. Even if you play a "regular" ticket, the EV of a ticket that doesn't hit the jackpot is 24.66 cents, so the total EV of the $2 ticket is about $2.24.
Note that the non-jackpot EV assumes you are not playing in California, where some strange state regulations requires that all payout levels be pari-mutuel. (I am not entirely sure why. One version is, the state's Supreme Court said that fixed payouts turns the lottery into a de facto slot machine, which is illegal - but scratch-off tickets have fixed probabilities and fixed payouts, and those are fine.)
If you take the announced cash lump sum of $464.4 million, the EV of the ticket is only about $1.66 for a $2 "regular" ticket, or $1.42 for a $1.50 "jackpot-only" ticket.
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You are comparing a cash outflow today to an annuity without any discount rate. That doesn’t work.
Also want to confirm your calculation included the probability of multiple winners splitting?
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Yes - I allowed for up to 7 winners, after which the amount added to the EV is less than $0.00001
