Would like to know something about The Wizard
Several times throughout the site, regardless of the game in question, you remind players that you cannot change the house edge with any style of play or wagering system. Like many I am sure, I had to learn that on my own through various attempts (read:failures). I remember specifically a question about craps when a player asked you what the best way to win money constantly is. Your reply was simple, own the casino that is running the game. True enough.
I guess I am curious that since you know so much about all the games and you have correctly come to the conclusion that you can't change the house edge even by a little bit, do you play any games yourself? If so, why?
I think the rest of the world incorrectly assumes they have a strategy that will work or they will be the one to catch lightning in a bottle or some other half cocked idea about being the one who can actually take down the house and that is why they play. Why do you play (if you do) when you know the best you can do is lose?
you're usually looking at a 49%/51% chance, - almost 50%/50% - where the player might win, the player might lose, but has a slightly higher chance of losing.
Some win, but more lose. That is what keeps the lights on.
Quote: Paigowdan
Some win, but more lose. That is what keeps the lights on.
If you go all the time you have no chance of ever
ever getting the money back that you lost
on previous trips. Its called risk compounding,
and if it's a negative expectation game, very
soon you're in the position of going further
and further in the negative the more you play.
The knowledgeable know their chances are 49 percent and so they willingly play.
A good bet between you and the casino is one where each of you know the game, know the odds, each is sober and each can stand the risk. The casino gives you the short end of the stick but it also gives you a free drink from a lovely lady who is mostly out of her costume. The main thing is that although the casino is likely to win...when the casino loses, it pays off and sends another young lady with another drink.
Quote: FleaStiffThe ignorant think their chances are 80 percent and so they willingly play.
You make a joke, but it's surprising how many people
think they can get and stay ahead. Way back in my
wising up chumps days, I had some of them get very
angry if I tried to tell them the truth.
There are a few here - I'm not one of them - who have an advantage using counting or other techniques.Quote: AtGame7Why do you play (if you do) when you know the best you can do is lose?
For the others, like me, the hope is that you get some entertainment and may win; but in the long term the cost doesn't prove too high.
With most games there's a skill level to master
(i) playing correctly - where there's a strategy (e.g. Blackjack)
(ii) making the better bets - as in avoiding dumb ones (e.g. Craps)
(iii) grabbing an opportunity (e.g. promotions, sports betting, rollover lotteries)
Personally I like the challenge of playing better (Pai Gow Tiles for me is the most difficult example) but also I am also happy to play fun games if they're cheap.
It is a fallacy that you cannot change the house edge. Some games there's a better way to play, meaning you lose at a smaller rate, so your money goes further. With some games you should pick the best available, e.g. Roulette choose a wheel that only has one-zero. On other games, avoid the sucker bets.
Having found the wizard's site, you should be able to build up your knowledge, avoid the obvious pitfalls and make your money go further.
Quote: charliepatrick.
It is a fallacy that you cannot change the house edge. Some games there's a better way to play,
Really? Name some games where you can change
the edge, besides counting in BJ.
Quote: charliepatrickIt is a fallacy that you cannot change the house edge. Some games there's a better way to play, meaning you lose at a smaller rate, so your money goes further. With some games you should pick the best available, e.g. Roulette choose a wheel that only has one-zero. On other games, avoid the sucker bets.
That's not changing the house edge, that's just making different bets and picking a different edge. Avoiding the any-7 bet and only betting the pass in craps is a lower-edge play, but that doesn't mean that either the edge on the any-7 or pass bets have changed at all.
Quote: EvenBobWay back in my wising up chumps days, I had some of them get very angry if I tried to tell them the truth.
Never tell a kid that his buying another drink won't get him laid that night. He starts out too shy to ask the girl to dance so he has a few drinks then he is too drunk to be shy but the girl shoots him down for being a drunkard and won't dance with him so he goes back and has some more drinks to drown his sorrows and forget about the silly, stuck-up lesbian that ignored him.
Its the same way with gamblers. If they think they got a lock on the action because of a lucky neck tie, don't abuse him of the notion.
If he has heard to never take insurance and now, knowing the secret of untold wealth, he is going to win, don't abuse him of the notion. Let him think the casino rigged the deck. Let him think anything.
Quote: WizardI'll answer the question in the OP later on today. In fact, I plan to bring back my Ask the Wizard column and I think I'll use this one in it.
I appreciate that, and am honored.
Quote: FleaStiff
Its the same way with gamblers. If they think they got a lock on the action because of a lucky neck tie, don't abuse him of the notion.
If he has heard to never take insurance and now, knowing the secret of untold wealth, he is going to win, don't abuse him of the notion. Let him think the casino rigged the deck. Let him think anything.
It's all part of the Gamblers Lie, which casinos
completely encourage. The lie is, if you just
play long enough, years even, you'll eventually
get ahead and stay ahead. The casino does all
it can to perpetuate this lie, that's why they
are essentially evil.
I agree that technically you cannot change the "game's House Edge", since that has been calculated using optimal strategy.Quote: EvenBobReally? Name some games where you can change the edge, besides counting in BJ.
However you can change your personal expected outcome by ensuring you use the optimal way to play, rather than an inferior strategy, or learn (like BJ counting) how to detect advantageous situations (and even if you can't detect it, the House Edge naturally swings up and down due to the cards already gone), or play the better variations (e.g. avoid 6/5 BJ).
The House Edge for some jackpot-type games can depend on circumstances, so typically the larger the payouts the lower the House Edge. Similarly Spanish 21 has a lower House Edge if there are more players (due to the Envy).
So to answer your question - in some cases you cannot change things. However if you want to put $1 on a number at Roulette - please play the single-zero table as you've changed your edge by picking the better table. There were always the two tables 5.26% or 2.70% - but from your view-point you have chosen the lower value.
Quote: EvenBobReally? Name some games where you can change
the edge, besides counting in BJ.
Three Card Poker and Mississippi Stud. And you can beat blackjack without counting with 2 different methods. Roulette. Baccarat.
Quote: charliepatrickif you want to put $1 on a number at Roulette - please play the single-zero table as you've changed your edge
The house has changed it's edge, you didn't change
anything. You just picked a lower house edge game,
that's all. And finding an optimal way to play is not
changing the HE, as you said that's technically not
possible.
Quote: anonimussThree Card Poker and Mississippi Stud. And you can beat blackjack without counting with 2 different methods. Roulette. Baccarat.
You can change the HE in roulette and bac? How. I
don't know the other 2, I don't play them.
Quote: AtGame7I guess I am curious that since you know so much about all the games and you have correctly come to the conclusion that you can't change the house edge even by a little bit, do you play any games yourself? If so, why?
It's called math. You know math is a school of thought where you aim for conclusions that are true in the clearest sense, without actually trying.
If you substract X from X, math tells you the result will be zero. Not because all those mathematicians tried every X in the past, with a following conjecture that it should be zero for all X. But because substraction follows certain rules, and from these rules by logic deduction alone one can come to the conclusion that x-x must always be zero.
Same with craps. You don't need to play the game. By analyzing the rules how that game is played, one can come to conclusions that the house will "win" regardless of your strategy (in this analogy the x).
Quote: EvenBobReally? Name some games where you can change
the edge, besides counting in BJ.
The two games that players probably SHOULD bet: sports and poker.
While you cannot CHANGE the edge, so to speak, you can win at both; pretty regularly too, if you're good.
But yeah, house backed games like craps and roulette are for entertainment purposes only.
Quote: EvenBobReally? Name some games where you can change
the edge, besides counting in BJ.
If you believe the edge can be changed in BJ by counting, I will assert the edge can be changed in almost every card game by counting. Sometimes it is very very small and sometimes it is more substantial. Read Elliots site and you will see this is true. The problem is that the house edge isn't usually adjusted enough to make it profitable.
I believe the main reason the wizard has this site, is t help people make BETTER bets and learn how to play SMARTER.Quote: AtGame7I have read a lot of your site and can't thank you enough for the information provided. When I clicked a link about asking The Wizard a question it instructs you to post the question here. I will be honest, I have not read through the forum for the answer so please accept my apology for taking the easy way out and asking here.
Several times throughout the site, regardless of the game in question, you remind players that you cannot change the house edge with any style of play or wagering system. Like many I am sure, I had to learn that on my own through various attempts (read:failures). I remember specifically a question about craps when a player asked you what the best way to win money constantly is. Your reply was simple, own the casino that is running the game. True enough.
I guess I am curious that since you know so much about all the games and you have correctly come to the conclusion that you can't change the house edge even by a little bit, do you play any games yourself? If so, why?
I think the rest of the world incorrectly assumes they have a strategy that will work or they will be the one to catch lightning in a bottle or some other half cocked idea about being the one who can actually take down the house and that is why they play. Why do you play (if you do) when you know the best you can do is lose?
There are situations that come along on just about every casino game that is +EV everything from keno to craps, where a smart player can get an advantage. Example Video Poker. Its common knowledge and widely excepted in the gaming community as being one, smart players can WIN in the long run and have a mathematically proven edge.
Quote: WizardI'll answer the question in the OP later on today. In fact, I plan to bring back my Ask the Wizard column and I think I'll use this one in it.
I looked through the 3 ATW columns from this year, and didn't see the answer to this question? I am also curious, just for curiosity's sake of course :).
Quote: WizardSorry. I play when I perceived an advantage, which usually is with sports betting, and sometimes video poker. The only game I play for fun, at low stakes, once in a blue moon, is pai gow tiles.
no more craps?
Quote: 100xOddsno more craps?
I never liked craps much.
Quote: WizardI never liked craps much.
really?
I would have thought after winning the Craps tourney that you would be an addict?
Quote: 100xOddsreally? I would have thought after winning the Craps tourney that you would be an addict?
Nah. I've played in lots of baccarat tournaments and still can't stand the game.
Quote: bahdbwoyno bj or anything?
I can't enjoy blackjack unless I count, and if I count I'll probably get backed off. If I can't play my best, then I don't want to play.
This is not true. There are pleanty of situations that are sure things, you just need to know where and how to look. Unless you want to go to the extreme and say the only sure thing is death and taxes.Quote: tournamentkingThere are no sure things in this field, other than the money to be made off of other enthusiasts by those cunning enough to tell them what they want to hear and sell them what they want to believe will make them winners.
Your statment leads me back and confirms to to me my previously question and statment I made to you.The one you seem to have avoided.
Quote: WizardIf I can't play my best, then I don't want to play.
It's more like, if you can't play your best, what's
the point in playing.
I'm pretty much the same way. I never play Pai Gow Poker since I always want to bank and it always pisses people off or gets messed up somehow.Quote: WizardI can't enjoy blackjack unless I count, and if I count I'll probably get backed off. If I can't play my best, then I don't want to play.
I enjoy Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em as much as anything now.
