Thread Rating:

gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 606
October 3rd, 2013 at 7:19:19 AM permalink
I'm thinking you both might've missed an important one:

Bet Selection

When all is said and done, it's all gonna boil down to having your money in the correct circle on the felt, is it not?

Sure, each bet remains the same 50/50 prop (house edge notwithstanding), but we still have to win as many bets as we possibly can. And we most especially need to win those bets that are sized a bit higher, for our various personal reasons (mine is two-fold: progression and variance).

Now, we can't simply rely on crossing our fingers, can we? Of course not.

So we need a reason to bet where we bet, and that's called Bet Selection. My bet selection process is, yet again, two-fold in nature:

1.) Proven Plays

I utilize three distinct plays that will see me "catch a wave" (for lack of a better term) at the onset of that wave. So, in reality, those plays can cost me a unit when I'm wrong and pick up any number of units (how big is that "wave"?) when I'm correct. I built that bet selection process that way, and it works as intended. Oh, wait, I should add: "when" it works. It only works when it works. It fails me more often than not. BUUUUTTT, how many times need I repeat it: That doesn't matter. Because I'll track their variances and back those same lagging plays with an inflated unit size in order to vacilitate both recoup and profit.

2.) Trending Plays

Look, I am an experienced Bac player who "knows his way around a shoe". Both typical and atypical. I can recognize when a bet appears as advantageous in this particular shoe (or portion thereof) as well as recognize when it's best to "no-bet". Either way, taking advantage of certain "propensities", for as long as they last, can prove rather profitable for, yet again, as minimal risk as possible.

And, frankly, isn't that what it's all about? Minimizing risk.

Ask yourself: How many bets can you possibly win while you're on the way to the parking valet after losing your session bankroll? Not too many, huh...

So bankroll preservation is paramount, and that's best accomplished by minimizing one's risk.

Learn to "no-bet" when your plays are "sleeping". (C'mon, any serious Bac player knows when their plays simply aren't materializing for them.)

And have a plan for most efficient recoup and profitability when they do "come around". (C'mon, any serious Bac player knows that their preferred plays will, in fact, "come around"....either that, or your "preferred plays" ain't so "preferred", are they?)

So, when all is said and done, our bet selection process and play had best be tried and true.

I wish you all the very best in your play.
JimRockford
JimRockford
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
  • Threads: 12
  • Posts: 533
October 3rd, 2013 at 7:39:45 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player


1.) Proven Plays

I utilize three distinct plays that will see me "catch a wave" (for lack of a better term) at the onset of that wave. So, in reality, those plays can cost me a unit when I'm wrong and pick up any number of units (how big is that "wave"?) when I'm correct.



Let's say you have played more than half a shoe and you have clearly identified the onset of a "wave". You are about to place a large bet , but the dealer suddenly picks up all un-delt cards (not touching the discards) and reshuffles them. Is the "wave" still intact or has it been disturbed?
"Truth is ever to be found in the simplicity, and not in the multiplicity and confusion of things." - Isaac Newton
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 5072
October 3rd, 2013 at 7:49:24 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

I'm thinking you both might've missed an important one:

Bet Selection

1.) Proven Plays

2.) Trending Plays


Teacher, let me make sure I have everything correct here. Is this equation right????

Bet Selection + Proven Plays + Trending Plays = -$250K
Fighting BS one post at a time!
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 606
October 3rd, 2013 at 8:15:30 AM permalink
Quote: JimRockford

Let's say you have played more than half a shoe and you have clearly identified the onset of a "wave". You are about to place a large bet , but the dealer suddenly picks up all un-delt cards (not touching the discards) and reshuffles them. Is the "wave" still intact or has it been disturbed?



Hello, JimRockford.

While I couldn't even imagine a scenario such as the one you're presenting within your question, I would immediately leave the table in such occurrence.

You see, my friend, I choose to play Baccarat because it is a closed-end shoe game, where the cards are inserted into the shoe and are played out mechanically. Even when there is a dealer change, no card is "burned", so the cards remain intact and in order. And I wouldn't have it any other way. Because I am of the belief....strike that, in KNOW FOR A FACT...that each and every shoe will have certain "propensities", some more than others, some "better lasting" than others, that I can take advantage of. Sometimes, the lack of any such propensities will see me "no-betting" quite often, and sometimes the shoe is just talking to me loud and clear. I, obviously, prefer the latter. But I've learned how to accept both.

Stay well, my friend.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
October 3rd, 2013 at 8:53:34 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Pabo
Pabo
Joined: Apr 29, 2011
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 150
October 3rd, 2013 at 8:54:51 AM permalink
gr8player, you are nothing more than a condescending, bloviating gasbag pretending to have some sort of mystical powers to read/talk to baccarat shoes. It's comical to read your pretentious assertions and claims that you're a master baccarat player and have found the holy grail to winning. You are willing to share your knowledge, yet you speak in circles and seem unable to write succintcly or clearly and state exactly what you mean. Just because you put quotation marks around certain words to give them some sort of importance or signficance means nothing. Stop with the psuedo intellectual double talk, man, and communicate like a normal human being. You're an insufferable blowhard.

Cutting through all of your crap, your playing style--just like varmenti's--consists of nothing more than trying to guess Banker or Player. Use whatever statistics you want to track to try and determine which hand you think might win on the next round. We all do that, mostly using the little score sheet that the casino is all too happy to pass out to players because they (the casinos) know that it isn't going to give any more advantage to players than a lucky rabbit's foot. You haven't come up with anything new, although you pretend that you have. Your simply hoping to guess correctly, bet into a trend and use a betting progression. That's not new.

You're like all the other snake oil salesmen who have passed through this world pretending to have that one elixer guaranteed to cure all ills, from cancer to hair loss. In this case, the ill is how to win at baccarat. Stop with your pretentious BS.
DoubleOrNothing
DoubleOrNothing
Joined: Jan 2, 2012
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 186
October 3rd, 2013 at 9:42:18 AM permalink
Quote: Pabo

gr8player, you are nothing more than a condescending, bloviating gasbag.


Quote: Pabo

You're like all the other snake oil salesmen who have passed through this world pretending to have that one elixer guaranteed to cure all ills, from cancer to hair loss. In this case, the ill is how to win at baccarat. Stop with your pretentious BS.


But we don't all come with such intentional personally insulting baggage.
I can't believe what I believe.
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 606
October 3rd, 2013 at 9:54:35 AM permalink
Quote: Pabo

Use whatever statistics you want to track to try and determine which hand you think might win on the next round. We all do that,...

Quote:



Hmmm, given the obvious frustration that permeates your entire post, some apparently do it more successfully than others. I'd ask myself the why and the how that might be.

Quote: Pabo

You haven't come up with anything new, although you pretend that you have. Your simply hoping to guess correctly, bet into a trend and use a betting progression. That's not new.

Quote:



I claim no patent on any Baccarat play, my friend. I'm not sure I like the use of the word "guess", however. A guess can be classified as a hunch, and I don't bet on hunches. I bet on me. My experiences, my game. It might not be new, Pabo, but it's all mine.

Quote: Pabo

You're like all the other snake oil salesmen who have passed through this world....

Quote:



I must take umbrage with that remark, Pabo. I am selling nothing...never have, never will. I relate my Baccarat experiences. Free of any charge. Snake oil salesman were nothing more than scammers out for the almighty dollar in any way they could procure it. I see no sensible reason for your nonsensical assimilation.

SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 103
  • Posts: 6016
October 3rd, 2013 at 10:01:13 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

(C'mon, any serious Bac player knows when their plays simply aren't materializing for them.)

And have a plan for most efficient recoup and profitability when they do "come around".



I think you meant "Any serious Bac player knows when their plays simply DIDN'T materialize for them."
If they knew when they WEREN'T GOING to materialize for them, they would have simply bet the opposite way.

I try not to take the bait.... but can't resist....
JimRockford
JimRockford
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
  • Threads: 12
  • Posts: 533
October 3rd, 2013 at 10:07:40 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Hello, JimRockford.

While I couldn't even imagine a scenario such as the one you're presenting within your question, I would immediately leave the table in such occurrence.

You see, my friend, I choose to play Baccarat because it is a closed-end shoe game, where the cards are inserted into the shoe and are played out mechanically. Even when there is a dealer change, no card is "burned", so the cards remain intact and in order. And I wouldn't have it any other way. Because I am of the belief....strike that, in KNOW FOR A FACT...that each and every shoe will have certain "propensities", some more than others, some "better lasting" than others, that I can take advantage of. Sometimes, the lack of any such propensities will see me "no-betting" quite often, and sometimes the shoe is just talking to me loud and clear. I, obviously, prefer the latter. But I've learned how to accept both.

Stay well, my friend.



In my hypothetical example, at the moment that you decided to place a bet you could know something of the composition of the remaining cards because it is a direct result of the cards already seen, but the order of the remaining cards is completely unknown. There is nothing sacred about the original order. The new order of the deck is just as probable as the original order. Your answer shows that in spite of historical records, hours played and disciplined adherence, your method is based on superstition.
"Truth is ever to be found in the simplicity, and not in the multiplicity and confusion of things." - Isaac Newton

  • Jump to: