What would happen?

So, you're a player that jumps in and out on "streaks". You believe that running with a streak is making you a profit on negative expectation game. Your brother, Sid, plays the same favorite game you do, but he doesn't follow streaks, he just plays until his money is gone that day, or he is too tired to continue.

You and your brother play the same way otherwise. He makes the same bets you would make, but he is almost always running out of money before you do even though you both get the same amount from your overly generous benefactor Godfrey Giveaway, your rich uncle. Of course your brother is not slowing down and considering whether the table is running hot or cold he just is playing faster and making more bets than you.

One day, a crazy thing happens. The casino you both go to changes the game rules making it a positive expectation game. (yeah, that's really crazy, but go with it for the moment)

You both continue playing the same way. So, the one thing that has changed is the game returns more than 100%. You are still free to enhance your profits with streaks, stop loss, whatever, and your brother continues his fast play. You both still make the same kind of bets.

Who will make more money in the long run under the new conditions?

If you're a system player you would believe that all your streak following and what not will still improve your return. And really why should it matter that the expectation of return has increased. That shouldn't affect all your hot and cold expectations. You're doing something that improves your return, right?

But in reality, Sid will be making more bets, and Sid will be making more money in the long run. BECAUSE if you make correct bets in a positive expectation game you want to play as fast as you can and make as many as possible for maximum return.

And again, the emphasis is, that nothing in the game changes other than the return percentages.

(Can it be made any clearer? Probably, but I did my best)

Quote: rxwine

So, you're a player that jumps in and out on "streaks". You believe that running with a streak is making you a profit on negative expectation game. Your brother, Sid, plays the same favorite game you do, but he doesn't follow streaks, he just plays until his money is gone that day, or he is too tired to continue.

You and your brother play the same way otherwise. He makes the same bets you would make, but he is almost always running out of money before you do even though you both get the same amount from your overly generous benefactor Godfrey Giveaway, your rich uncle. Of course your brother is not slowing down and considering whether the table is running hot or cold he just is playing faster and making more bets than you.

One day, a crazy thing happens. The casino you both go to changes the game rules making it a positive expectation game. (yeah, that's really crazy, but go with it for the moment)

You both continue playing the same way. So, the one thing that has changed is the game returns more than 100%. You are still free to enhance your profits with streaks, stop loss, whatever, and your brother continues his fast play. You both still make the same kind of bets.

Who will make more money in the long run under the new conditions?

If you're a system player you would believe that all your streak following and what not will still improve your return. And really why should it matter that the expectation of return has increased. That shouldn't affect all your hot and cold expectations. You're doing something that improves your return, right?

But in reality, Sid will be making more bets, and Sid will be making more money in the long run. BECAUSE if you make correct bets in a positive expectation game you want to play as fast as you can and make as many as possible for maximum return.

And again, the emphasis is, that nothing in the game changes other than the return percentages.

(Can it be made any clearer? Probably, but I did my best)

This is true I just wish i had an uncle like that. Having an uncle like that is that Luck or variance?
Is that the diffidence in luck and variance?

The problem with all of that is..... a System player who has a +EV game will still continue to believe his system will work BETTER even with a +EV game. He will probably never change his mind.

Quote: AxelWolf

The problem with all of that is..... a System player who has a +EV game will still continue to believe his system will work BETTER even with a +EV game. He will probably never change his mind.

Yes, can't say I have high hopes. But after following many discussions going round and round here, just thought I throw another 2 cents in with a different angle.

Quote:

This is true I just wish i had an uncle like that. Having an uncle like that is that Luck or variance?
Is that the diffidence in luck and variance?

I guess you could marry into a family, but otherwise I don't know how to influence your relative choice. (strange pun heh )

Quote: rxwine

But in reality, Sid will be making more bets, and Sid will be making more money in the long run. BECAUSE if you make correct bets in a positive expectation game you want to play as fast as you can and make as many as possible for maximum return.

Your total expected return is the total amount you wager times the expected value of the game (under some artificial but reasonable assumptions).

What part of that simple sentence is what people don't understand ? If the EV of a game is negative, the more you bet the more you are expected to lose. Obviously if you bet faster, you lose more. If the EV of a game is positive, you are expected to win more. There is no miracle about it.

Quote: rxwine

So, you're a player that jumps in and out on "streaks". You believe that running with a streak is making you a profit on negative expectation game. Your brother, Sid, plays the same favorite game you do, but he doesn't follow streaks, he just plays until his money is gone that day, or he is too tired to continue.

You and your brother play the same way otherwise. He makes the same bets you would make, but he is almost always running out of money before you do even though you both get the same amount from your overly generous benefactor Godfrey Giveaway, your rich uncle. Of course your brother is not slowing down and considering whether the table is running hot or cold he just is playing faster and making more bets than you.

One day, a crazy thing happens. The casino you both go to changes the game rules making it a positive expectation game. (yeah, that's really crazy, but go with it for the moment)

You both continue playing the same way. So, the one thing that has changed is the game returns more than 100%. You are still free to enhance your profits with streaks, stop loss, whatever, and your brother continues his fast play. You both still make the same kind of bets.

Who will make more money in the long run under the new conditions?

If you're a system player you would believe that all your streak following and what not will still improve your return. And really why should it matter that the expectation of return has increased. That shouldn't affect all your hot and cold expectations. You're doing something that improves your return, right?

But in reality, Sid will be making more bets, and Sid will be making more money in the long run. BECAUSE if you make correct bets in a positive expectation game you want to play as fast as you can and make as many as possible for maximum return.

And again, the emphasis is, that nothing in the game changes other than the return percentages.

(Can it be made any clearer? Probably, but I did my best)

Brilliant! Well done!

I love this thought experiment, because a lot of streak players (not all though) would definitely agree to bet every single hand like there's no tomorrow in a +EV situation. Make it "one night only", and I highly doubt that more than a handful of streak players would go "No, I'm gonna pass on this, the table is cold."

The Kelly Criterion addresses this. If you have +EV, you still have risk of ruin, thus there is maximum size bet you want to make. However, streaks would mean nothing. The "brother [that] is not slowing down and considering whether the table is running hot or cold" would be doing it correctly, there is just no reason to drop out for a while because the "table is cold" or whatever.

Quote: Canyonero

Well done!

Thanks! I hope people that already understand the point I was making will get it. Of course, I'm trying to chip away at certain beliefs held by some gamblers. That's the tough part.

Quote: rxwine

Of course, I'm trying to chip away at certain beliefs held by some gamblers. That's the tough part.

A splendid example of the math mindset at its worst: Go out of your way to try to hammer folk who mind their own business anyway.

Look, no one says to not do what the Romans do when in Rome. Certainly not the system players. But the AP guys would look so much more foolish were the system players handed that same but analogous artificial advantage. Same example, right? Yeah, the AP's would be ten rows deep for the opportunity to do their own version of the perceived gambler fallacy song and dance. Hypocrisy at its best!

The second problem with the above square peg in round hole math work is that Kelly betting may as well be applied by the system player as the non-system player. Using Kelly or calling yourself a non-system player, ie, coming off an AP guy, doesn't necessarily mean that you know your round hole from a hole in the ground either. I'm not talking about inside a casino, which may be the least of your troubles. (Irrational fear/dislike of others here.)

If gambling amounts to variance, and system players want to or have a way to gamble, let them their relatively larger stakes to bet more on selected hands. It is an art to be able to quickly deduce what's fair, and then go "all in" against players who aren't so capable of "pulling the trigger". Little guys push around big guys like checkers. "Balls." For some of us, it's easy to see who hasn't got 'em.

Nothing inherently wrong with an absurd response to an absurd stimulus. Curiosity doesn't always kill the cat. The others all learn if given a fair chance.