Scooter77
Scooter77
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August 7th, 2013 at 2:20:23 PM permalink
This question could be answered (by someone so inclined) with a quick, short answer or with a long, complex one.
Since I'm incapable of answering it on my own, I'll take any answer that I can get :)

If I'm at 3rd base on a 6 or 8 deck blackjack game, just how much advantage can I gain (regarding changes to basic strategy) based on how many cards I've been able to view from the other players?

How much does the answer change if it's a 1 or 2 deck game?

Thanks in advance.
Venthus
Venthus
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August 7th, 2013 at 2:42:38 PM permalink
I can't give numbers, but an advantage definitely exists. I've been told, however, that it's negligible on a 6/8deck game.

However, regarding a single deck game, one source I'm looking at indicates a 1% edge on flat betting, given a number of other favorable circumstances.

Try running a search on 'depth charging'.
dwheatley
dwheatley
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August 7th, 2013 at 6:40:32 PM permalink
I agree with Venthus. It's not worth your time at 6-8 decks, and it's the reason why single-deck games are dealt face down.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
Venthus
Venthus
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August 7th, 2013 at 7:40:50 PM permalink
In my experience, most places don't care too much if you show other people your cards. I also came across a site earlier today that gave tips for counting in pitch games too. You can oftentimes get an idea what a card is based on the cards that are known and how people react too. My problem is being able to *remember* what the count is while processing all this. Count the knowns, estimate the unknowns, work through my hand? Not a problem. But as soon as the next hand is dealt... can't remember a thing.
MangoJ
MangoJ
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August 8th, 2013 at 12:44:05 PM permalink
Quote: Venthus

However, regarding a single deck game, one source I'm looking at indicates a 1% edge on flat betting, given a number of other favorable circumstances.



1% is quite a bit overestimating. Based on my own research, the gain of knowing a single card increases playing efficiency by 0.02%. (The gain per card gets larger with each known card. I.e. 5 known cards are something like 0.12%).
Venthus
Venthus
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August 8th, 2013 at 1:04:41 PM permalink
"If I set up a seven-player table, with two rounds between shuffles, and I allow the third-base player, who is using the Zen Count, to see all of the cards of the players who play their hands before him, with a flat bet he will win at the rate of 0.77%. (This is with Reno rules, which allow doubling on 10 and 11 only, and the dealer hits soft 17; with downtown Las Vegas rules, where you can double on any two cards, but the dealer still hits soft 17, the flat-betting third base player will win at the rate of 1.06%, assuming he can see all of the other players' cards.)"
http://casinogamingstalk.com/4

Looking at it more closely, I guess saying the situation is 'favorable' is an understatement. One of the places I went to reshuffles after every round if there's even only 4 people, forget about 2 rounds of 7, and being face-up.
MangoJ
MangoJ
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August 8th, 2013 at 1:31:23 PM permalink
Sorry I thought you meant 1% per card. Your data states 2 rounds of 7 players (like 35 cards) gives 0.7-1.0%, which comes pretty close to 0.02-0.03% per card.
Scooter77
Scooter77
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August 8th, 2013 at 1:32:08 PM permalink
I appreciate the responses. Am I correct in assuming that I won't see a noticeable difference in the short-term if I visit a casino on occasion, but that the economy of scale (and speed) online might make it worthwhile to search out opportunities like this?


thanks,
Venthus
Venthus
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August 8th, 2013 at 2:21:23 PM permalink
Quote: MangoJ

Sorry I thought you meant 1% per card. Your data states 2 rounds of 7 players (like 35 cards) gives 0.7-1.0%, which comes pretty close to 0.02-0.03% per card.



Oh, no problem. I didn't run the math myself and if it was horrendously off, I'd like to know that too! Figured it'd be better if I just threw up the actual source, anyhow.

1% per card would be absolutely lovely too. 85% chance! =P

Quote: Scooter77

I appreciate the responses. Am I correct in assuming that I won't see a noticeable difference in the short-term if I visit a casino on occasion, but that the economy of scale (and speed) online might make it worthwhile to search out opportunities like this?



Most online casinos are CSM-style, in the sense that the deck(s) are shuffled after every hand, and most also don't allow for multi-handing. I've also heard that online casinos that have countable play have countermeasures against it, such as play analysis and whatnot... and won't hesitate to ban your account (and seize funds) as a result.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
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August 8th, 2013 at 3:22:21 PM permalink
Ignoring counting and for CSM dealt hands, personally I find the differences help with marginal decisions. The most obvious ones that crop up are 12 versus a 4 and 13 versus a 2 (16 vs 10 also applies, but playing last base I try to keep the harmony going so nearly always hit my 16s) and I hit if I can see quite a few 10s have already gone.
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