Betting the HR Derby
July 15th, 2013 at 4:16:31 PM
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Here's a copy of my notes for betting the HR Derby, starting at 8pm eastern:
AL Guys
Chris Davis 37 HR’s in 95 games
6 in july
Robinson Cano 21 in 95
4 in july
Prince Fielder 16 in 94
3 in july
Yoenis Cespedes [18 in 95]
0 in july, 6 in june
AL Total: 13 in july, 92 in 95 games
NL Guys
Pedro Alvarez [27 HR’s in 95 games, adj]
4 in july
B. Harper, Fluke / Mess Up [21 in 95]
1 in july
Michael Cuddyer, Colorado [16 in 95]
2 in july
David Wright, Accident [14 in 95]
1 in july, 5 in june
NL Total: 8 in july [78 in 95 games, adj]
Notes:
-- Field Shape Favors Righties: Cespedes, Wright and Cuddyer.
-- NL captain David Wright shouldn’t be in tourney; he’s there cuz Mets are host (Cano is AL capt cuz nyc thing, but he’s deserving)
-- NL Bryce Harper Maybe a fluke: 9 hr’s in April, only 3 in May, Hurt for June, only 1 in 14 games since back from injury. Also messed up and named his dad his pitcher.
-- NL Cuddyer plays in Colorado. Numbers above adjusted as if he’d played 95 road gms.
-- ESPN Poll: Davis 38%, Fielder 27%, Cano 11%, Cespedes 6%, Someone Else 18%
Format
First Rd: As many HR’s until each player gets 10 outs (any swing not a HR). 4 of 8 advance.
2nd Rd: First Rd Totals DO carry over. 1 seed plays 4 seed and 2 plays 3.
Final Rd: Winner of 1 vs 4 plays Winner of 2 vs 3. HR totals are reset to zero.
AL Guys
Chris Davis 37 HR’s in 95 games
6 in july
Robinson Cano 21 in 95
4 in july
Prince Fielder 16 in 94
3 in july
Yoenis Cespedes [18 in 95]
0 in july, 6 in june
AL Total: 13 in july, 92 in 95 games
NL Guys
Pedro Alvarez [27 HR’s in 95 games, adj]
4 in july
B. Harper, Fluke / Mess Up [21 in 95]
1 in july
Michael Cuddyer, Colorado [16 in 95]
2 in july
David Wright, Accident [14 in 95]
1 in july, 5 in june
NL Total: 8 in july [78 in 95 games, adj]
Notes:
-- Field Shape Favors Righties: Cespedes, Wright and Cuddyer.
-- NL captain David Wright shouldn’t be in tourney; he’s there cuz Mets are host (Cano is AL capt cuz nyc thing, but he’s deserving)
-- NL Bryce Harper Maybe a fluke: 9 hr’s in April, only 3 in May, Hurt for June, only 1 in 14 games since back from injury. Also messed up and named his dad his pitcher.
-- NL Cuddyer plays in Colorado. Numbers above adjusted as if he’d played 95 road gms.
-- ESPN Poll: Davis 38%, Fielder 27%, Cano 11%, Cespedes 6%, Someone Else 18%
Format
First Rd: As many HR’s until each player gets 10 outs (any swing not a HR). 4 of 8 advance.
2nd Rd: First Rd Totals DO carry over. 1 seed plays 4 seed and 2 plays 3.
Final Rd: Winner of 1 vs 4 plays Winner of 2 vs 3. HR totals are reset to zero.
July 15th, 2013 at 4:43:21 PM
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Alvarez is a beast, and his college coach is serving him. He's hit almost all his HRs since the beginning of May, only 1 or 2 in April I think.
Harper has serious power, too. Sure, he was hurt, but the kid can rock the bat.
All that being said, who the hell knows. Guys who can hit 'em in games can choke on the BP pitching (Bonds did); guys who hit a lot of long outs in games can reach the seats when they get 85mph and no movement instead of 95mph darters. IMO this is a coin flip, unhandicappable with any degree of predictability.
Harper has serious power, too. Sure, he was hurt, but the kid can rock the bat.
All that being said, who the hell knows. Guys who can hit 'em in games can choke on the BP pitching (Bonds did); guys who hit a lot of long outs in games can reach the seats when they get 85mph and no movement instead of 95mph darters. IMO this is a coin flip, unhandicappable with any degree of predictability.
A falling knife has no handle.
July 15th, 2013 at 5:04:22 PM
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I'll take a shot with Alvarez. I've been to a few Pirate games this year and he puts on quite a show during BP.
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
July 15th, 2013 at 5:05:55 PM
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I like Chris Davis. Not only does he have tons of power, but he keeps himself in great shape. He won't get tired
July 15th, 2013 at 7:42:14 PM
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How is Paul Goldschmidt not in this contest? He's one of the top hitters in the NL. Leads the league in RBI's, 4th in HR's, 9th in BA.
ZCore13
ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
July 15th, 2013 at 8:04:27 PM
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Quote: Zcore13How is Paul Goldschmidt not in this contest? He's one of the top hitters in the NL. Leads the league in RBI's, 4th in HR's, 9th in BA.
ZCore13
The participants were chosen by the captains: David Wright for the NL, probably because he's a Met and they hosted, and Robinson Cano for the AL, probably because it was played in NYC.
I got burned in the final round, leaving me with having worked pretty hard on this event, but not having much in the way of profits to show for it.
