MrV
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June 25th, 2013 at 9:31:00 AM permalink
It seems kind of silly to play casino games with their negative expectation, at least if your goal is to come out ahead.

Sure, a true AP might be able to pull it off, but for the 99.98% of the rest of us, casino gambling seems a narcissistic exercise in False Hope.

Players need to ask themselves: is the pleasure worth the pain?

OK, back to work: at least there I have a true positive expectation!
"What, me worry?"
Ibeatyouraces
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June 25th, 2013 at 9:36:00 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Paigowdan
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June 25th, 2013 at 9:44:25 AM permalink
Quote: MrV

It seems kind of silly to play casino games with their negative expectation, at least if your goal is to come out ahead.

Sure, a true AP might be able to pull it off, but for the 99.98% of the rest of us, casino gambling seems a narcissistic exercise in False Hope.

Players need to ask themselves: is the pleasure worth the pain?

OK, back to work: at least there I have a true positive expectation!



It isn't a narcissistic exercise in false hope, because casino games aren't a 100% / 0% guaranteed loss expense. They're 51% / 49%. This means you often win, though at a slightly less frequent rate than losing.

Using this argument, you can say that any OTHER outing like shows, movies and restaurants - where you can only lose on an admission charge or bill - are the guaranteed negative expectation outlets.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
FinsRule
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June 25th, 2013 at 9:47:18 AM permalink
So if you have a 50.01% chance of winning a coin toss it's a good idea, but a 49.99% chance of winning a coin toss is a bad idea? You're gambling either way, and if you don't enjoy it, you shouldn't do it.
DRich
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June 25th, 2013 at 9:47:51 AM permalink
I think the "typical" casino customer doesn't expect to win, they want to win. They also want entertainment, free drinks, free hotel rooms, etc.

I know it is cliched, but compare it to the person that goes to the movies. They pay for a ticket, a drink, and popcorn or candy while enjoyng their 100 minute movie.

They don't win anything. They are spending money to do something they could also do at home for 10% of the cost.

It is only entertainment to most.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Ibeatyouraces
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June 25th, 2013 at 9:53:07 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
1BB
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June 25th, 2013 at 9:55:08 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Some of us just don't see gambling as entertainment.



Yup, don't get me started. :-)
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
Nareed
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June 25th, 2013 at 10:33:55 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Exactly why I have said that if I want to play for fun, I can play all these games at home for free without the pain of losing money.



And without the trhill of possibly winning, the trhill of actually winning (it happens), or the social aspects of the game. It's very differnet to ahve a nice chat, sometimes, or make observations or jokes about the play, than to just play at home.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
boymimbo
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June 25th, 2013 at 10:43:39 AM permalink
Gamblers come in four flavors:

(1) Entertainment (88%) - they go once in a while with disposable entertainment money to have fun. They do this because it's socially fun for them to do. Plenty of elderly people are these kinds of gamblers -- they go to get out of the house. This is what the gambling business should be and usually does cater to.

(2) True AP - these players (0.1%) go to take in advantage offers, count cards, hole card, play advantage VP, and take advantage of promotions.

(3) Addicts (10%) - these players have weaknesses in their mental state that allows gambling (and smoking, alcohol, drugs, pornography, etc) to become addictive as wins release endorphins that make them feel good and there is little else in their life (relationships, work, etc) that can replace that feeling. Casinos love these people as they are free to part with their money and respond to targeted promotions quite well and casinos get quite the ROI on marketing to this small segment of the population, and it's legal!

(4) Smart Addicts / Fake AP - these players (1.9%) think they have an advantage but in reality they play low HA games in order to maximize their time in a casino. These are the people who play craps, blackjack, pai gow, bacarrat, and low edge VP in order to last in a casino for the longest time, yet will still lose in the long run. I call them smart addicts because they can maintain their addiction with a relatively low and possibly non-financial damaging bankroll.

I was in category 3-4, but I haven't spent more than 30 minutes in a casino in three months, and that was to attend a Rickles show in the Falls.

My percentages are made up.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
rudeboyoi
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June 25th, 2013 at 10:52:36 AM permalink
might be a little off topic but this thought just popped in my head while reading this thread.

do you think players are more likely to suffer a heart attack from a huge win or a huge loss?
FleaStiff
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June 25th, 2013 at 11:00:07 AM permalink
Quote: MrV

at least if your goal is to come out ahead


Well, the dream is to come out ahead, its a reasonable hope and a somewhat reasonable expectation compared to our other beliefs and actions in life.

Also "coming out ahead" does not necessarily mean being in the plus column financially. The music, the excitement, the beautiful women, the booze ... its all part of the fun.
DRich
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June 25th, 2013 at 11:05:33 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Some of us just don't see gambling as entertainment.



My guess is that almost nobody that hangs out at this website treats it as mainly entertainment.

99% of people who gamble have never been to an informational gambling website.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Nareed
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June 25th, 2013 at 11:37:37 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

My guess is that almost nobody that hangs out at this website treats it as mainly entertainment.



Does that make me the 1%? ;)

My guess is that most people who hang around this site talk a better game than they play. But that's just a guess.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
EvenBob
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June 25th, 2013 at 12:11:04 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Some of us just don't see gambling as entertainment.



If gambling is entertainment, then so is going to
the dentist or going to work everyday. 'Gambling
is entertainment' are just words strung together
with no meaning.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
FinsRule
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June 25th, 2013 at 12:17:58 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

If gambling is entertainment, then so is going to
the dentist or going to work everyday. 'Gambling
is entertainment' are just words strung together
with no meaning.



That makes zero sense.
FinsRule
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June 25th, 2013 at 12:20:18 PM permalink
Quote: rudeboyoi

might be a little off topic but this thought just popped in my head while reading this thread.

do you think players are more likely to suffer a heart attack from a huge win or a huge loss?



I think loss. But big wins happen far more often than big losses. A huge loss is most likely to be not getting a huge win. You usually can win more than you can afford to lose if that makes any sense.
EvenBob
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June 25th, 2013 at 12:22:07 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

That makes zero sense.



Exactly, words strung together with no meaning.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
boymimbo
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June 25th, 2013 at 12:25:18 PM permalink
That would put EvenBob in the non-entertainment group.

A very large portion of gamblers take $100, go to the casino, stick it in a slot, play it, and see how they do. It's entertainment, like a movie, bowling, a game of golf, or a good meal.

People do derive entertainment pleasure playing these games.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
EvenBob
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June 25th, 2013 at 12:28:55 PM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

That would put EvenBob in the non-entertainment group.



Yes, I'm not much fun, ask my wife. She doesn't
write me off as an entertainment expense on her
taxes.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
FinsRule
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June 25th, 2013 at 1:07:35 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Yes, I'm not much fun, ask my wife. She doesn't
write me off as an entertainment expense on her
taxes.



Bob, maybe you should try and have some fun... Isn't it better to live life that way? I know you love your grandchild(ren). Maybe you can be fun around them at least. I feel bad for your wife if she's married to someone who is "not much fun"
rxwine
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June 25th, 2013 at 1:10:02 PM permalink
Quote: rudeboyoi

might be a little off topic but this thought just popped in my head while reading this thread.

do you think players are more likely to suffer a heart attack from a huge win or a huge loss?



A huge grinding loss occurring over several hours. I wouldn't doubt gamblers who die are grinding away at the time going into the black pit of debt. (Just guessing though). Probably combined with high fat/salt oversized casino meal, maybe with a few drinks, too little sleep, and the grim reaper will be standing behind you soon.

Huge win? I don't know if endorphin rushes kill that many people. The stress is different.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
EvenBob
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June 25th, 2013 at 1:10:42 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I feel bad for your wife if she's married to someone who is "not much fun"



No you don't. How many people do you
know who are 'fun'? What does that even
mean, that you act the fool all the time for
the enjoyment of others? Knock yourself
out, not my cup of tea.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
MrV
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June 25th, 2013 at 1:22:19 PM permalink
I believe as used in this context, a person is "fun" if he / she demonstrates through words and / or actions that they both enjoy life and enjoy helping others to enjoy it with them.

It's not the destination, it's the journey.
"What, me worry?"
FleaStiff
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June 25th, 2013 at 1:30:14 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

Most people talk a better game than they play.

Everyone does. Alcohol, fatigue, boredom affect actual play, otherwise we are all rigidly mathematically inclined Basic Strategy experts who are forever unaffected by blaring music, exhaustion or other distractions in the casinos.
rxwine
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June 25th, 2013 at 1:35:25 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

If gambling is entertainment, then so is going to
the dentist



Well, we could probably keep more people out of casinos putting in dental chairs, and offering tooth drilling.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
EvenBob
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June 25th, 2013 at 1:37:01 PM permalink
Quote: MrV

I believe as used in this context, a person is "fun" if he / she demonstrates through words and / or actions that they both enjoy life and enjoy helping others to enjoy it with them.
.



Don't know any of those. My wifes 4 sisters are
all nitpicking old bags and their husbands are
too hen pecked to talk most of the time. My son
is career military and as serious as they come.
My daughter is a math teacher and a fun time
for her is reading a math book. I don't know any
'fun' people. In fact, ever see old photo's of people
taken a hundred years ago? Nobody was smiling
because it meant you weren't a serious person if
you were grinning like a baboon in a picture. And
if you had that reputation, of a 'fun' person, nobody
took you seriously.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Mission146
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June 25th, 2013 at 1:39:48 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

Does that make me the 1%? ;)

My guess is that most people who hang around this site talk a better game than they play. But that's just a guess.



I don't, but then, I don't talk a very good game.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Nareed
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June 25th, 2013 at 1:43:07 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I don't, but then, I don't talk a very good game.



Let's see:

Can you spot the fallacy behind this statement? "When I stay only one night at a hotel, I don't tip the housekeeping staff. That's because I've made no use of their services."

Spotting these thigns gives you a leg up in avoiding them, which is essential for talking a good game.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
FinsRule
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June 25th, 2013 at 1:45:30 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Don't know any of those. My wifes 4 sisters are
all nitpicking old bags and their husbands are
too hen pecked to talk most of the time. My son
is career military and as serious as they come.
My daughter is a math teacher and a fun time
for her is reading a math book. I don't know any
'fun' people. In fact, ever see old photo's of people
taken a hundred years ago? Nobody was smiling
because it meant you weren't a serious person if
you were grinning like a baboon in a picture. And
if you had that reputation, of a 'fun' person, nobody
took you seriously.



I'm seriously loving this conversation. Side note, didn't people used to not smile in pictures because you had to stand and not move for so long?
EvenBob
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June 25th, 2013 at 1:52:24 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I'm seriously loving this conversation. Side note, didn't people used to not smile in pictures because you had to stand and not move for so long?



In the very early days that was true. But as photography
got better people still didn't smile. Some say it was because
of bad teeth, but you can smile without opening your mouth.

It was because having your pic taken wasn't an everyday
event and you wanted to look like a serious person. Your
reputation was everything then and if you walked around
with a grin all the time, you were labeled frivolous, or worse,
a fool. Being sober and serious was your goal, so people
would do business with you. So when you spoke, it wasn't
dismissed out of hand. The Brits say its a Victorian thing
and I'm sure they're right. When they entered the Edwardian
age, things changed. But having a 'stick up your arse' when
Victoria was queen was the norm, and even applauded.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
rxwine
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June 25th, 2013 at 1:52:41 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

I don't know any
'fun' people.



So, somewhat like a funeral home atomosphere, but less fun.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
EvenBob
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June 25th, 2013 at 1:54:22 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

So, somewhat like a funeral home atomosphere, but less fun.



My dog is fun, we have dog fun every day.
But dogs are idiots, they act dopey and we
cater to them, we laugh at and with them.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
24Bingo
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June 25th, 2013 at 4:30:39 PM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

It isn't a narcissistic exercise in false hope, because casino games aren't a 100% / 0% guaranteed loss expense. They're 51% / 49%. This means you often win, though at a slightly less frequent rate than losing.



Let's be honest, Dan - by session, it's 80/20 at best.

In any case, as I've said, I'm not sure "entertainment" is the right word - there's some entertainment value, but it's really less a pastime than a thrill particular to gambling, which is what I think most people are there for, for better or for worse.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
boymimbo
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June 25th, 2013 at 5:11:16 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

My dog is fun, we have dog fun every day.
But dogs are idiots, they act dopey and we
cater to them, we laugh at and with them.



Just like Obama?
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
kenarman
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June 25th, 2013 at 6:22:52 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

If gambling is entertainment, then so is going to
the dentist or going to work everyday. 'Gambling
is entertainment' are just words strung together
with no meaning.



Of course gambling is entertainment. My wife and I are some of the old farts that go to casinos for fun and entertainment. We will win sometimes and lose more often. Neither of us having any expectation that our casino time is a winning proposition. But neither is bucking up several thousand dollars to go find some sun in the cold Canadian winter which we also do. All breaks from your normal life cost money.

I feel sorry for you Bob if going to work has never been pleasant. I am past retirement age but still work by choice. I enjoy working, helping solve peoples problems, the income, and the mental stimulation of having to learn new technology, and just the social interaction with new people all the time.
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
midwestgb
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June 25th, 2013 at 6:35:48 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

In the very early days that was true. But as photography
got better people still didn't smile. Some say it was because
of bad teeth, but you can smile without opening your mouth.

It was because having your pic taken wasn't an everyday
event and you wanted to look like a serious person. Your
reputation was everything then and if you walked around
with a grin all the time, you were labeled frivolous, or worse,
a fool. Being sober and serious was your goal, so people
would do business with you. So when you spoke, it wasn't
dismissed out of hand. The Brits say its a Victorian thing
and I'm sure they're right. When they entered the Edwardian
age, things changed. But having a 'stick up your arse' when
Victoria was queen was the norm, and even applauded.



Good analysis Bob. I just happened today to gaze upon a pic from 1913 of my Grandmother's family in Wisconsin. Six kids, plus parents. Reasonably affluent family. No smiles.
EvenBob
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June 25th, 2013 at 6:54:58 PM permalink
Quote: midwestgb

Good analysis Bob. I just happened today to gaze upon a pic from 1913 of my Grandmother's family in Wisconsin. Six kids, plus parents. Reasonably affluent family. No smiles.



Yup, and by 1913 there were hand held Kodak's
galore, exposure time was instant. They were
serious people, life was hard, they didn't want to
look like dopes.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
MonkeyMonkey
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June 25th, 2013 at 7:59:34 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I feel bad for your wife if she's married to someone who is "not much fun"



I don't, look at that post count, she probably spends less time with him than we do.
silicone
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June 25th, 2013 at 8:19:47 PM permalink
a narcissistic exercise in False Hope.

I do believe that is what it is .
Just Me.......
silicone
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June 25th, 2013 at 8:21:17 PM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

Gamblers come in four flavors:

(1) Entertainment (88%) - they go once in a while with disposable entertainment money to have fun. They do this because it's socially fun for them to do. Plenty of elderly people are these kinds of gamblers -- they go to get out of the house. This is what the gambling business should be and usually does cater to.

(2) True AP - these players (0.1%) go to take in advantage offers, count cards, hole card, play advantage VP, and take advantage of promotions.

(3) Addicts (10%) - these players have weaknesses in their mental state that allows gambling (and smoking, alcohol, drugs, pornography, etc) to become addictive as wins release endorphins that make them feel good and there is little else in their life (relationships, work, etc) that can replace that feeling. Casinos love these people as they are free to part with their money and respond to targeted promotions quite well and casinos get quite the ROI on marketing to this small segment of the population, and it's legal!

(4) Smart Addicts / Fake AP - these players (1.9%) think they have an advantage but in reality they play low HA games in order to maximize their time in a casino. These are the people who play craps, blackjack, pai gow, bacarrat, and low edge VP in order to last in a casino for the longest time, yet will still lose in the long run. I call them smart addicts because they can maintain their addiction with a relatively low and possibly non-financial damaging bankroll.

I was in category 3-4, but I haven't spent more than 30 minutes in a casino in three months, and that was to attend a Rickles show in the Falls.

My percentages are made up.



I have to say Thank You for this post. You could not have spoken the truth of the matter better !!!! This is absolutely the best post I have read in ions. I applaud you.
Just Me.......
rxwine
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July 14th, 2013 at 1:50:05 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

if you walked around
with a grin all the time, you were labeled frivolous, or worse,
a fool. Being sober and serious was your goal, so people
would do business with you.



Check out the mug on the wall around 2:44. (if you blink you'll miss it)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cs2j8f7H2WY
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
EvenBob
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July 14th, 2013 at 2:09:32 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

Check out the mug on the wall around 2:44. (if you blink you'll miss it)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cs2j8f7H2WY



That has to be around 1965. Looks like every
kid I went to high school with. Nobody had
a cell phone or a tatoo or an attitude. Good
clean fun.

(I was close, its 1964. I read the comments
and people who were in the film say its 64.)
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
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