Revel promotion sounds too good to be true
Quote: chaunceyb3I hate flushing good money after bad. That's why I recommend running downstairs and putting $100 on a hand of tiles.
I see we are in the same building again. Hello from a floor(s) above, sodawater.
haha.. hope your bathroom was dryer than mine last night. doesn't revel close up that tiles game from like 2 am to noon?
Quote: rdw4potus
This promo will be abused by a few and ignored by most. Kind of like Revel overall, I suppose.
Just like when they matched the tier. They gave away rooms, food, and lots of free money. People came, stayed, ate ran through free play, but did bulk of their gambling at other places.
Quote: BhappyJust like when they matched the tier. They gave away rooms, food, and lots of free money. People came, stayed, ate ran through free play, but did bulk of their gambling at other places.
I know that you're convinced that this is the case. But you always seem to conveniently forget that all Revel offered to do was match what other casinos were already doing for those players. Every other casino in town already gives away rooms, food, and free money. And, apparently they do it better than Revel since people play at those casinos and not at Revel...
Quote: rdw4potusI know that you're convinced that this is the case. But you always seem to conveniently forget that all Revel offered to do was match what other casinos were already doing for those players. Every other casino in town already gives away rooms, food, and free money. And, apparently they do it better than Revel since people play at those casinos and not at Revel...
I agree with your remark. Some one told me that 20% of gamblers produce 80% of casino revenues. However, the remaining 80% of people act as props or pieces of furniture. They make the place look busy, and lively. Live 1/2 poker players don't get nothing from other places. Currently, Revel is offering lots of freebies to those players. Still their poker room is mostly dead.
As you say other casinos do it better than Revel. All of Revel's promotions were/are geared towards attracting that 20% of gamblers (last year when they had this thing going, they saw only about a million in additional income). They offered nothing, and still are offering very little to nickle and dime crowd - the furniture.
Consistency is the name of the game in offerings, and Revel was nowhere as consistent as any other place in AC. This promotion does not really indicate that, either.Quote: rdw4potusRevel offered to do was match what other casinos were already doing for those players. Every other casino in town already gives away rooms, food, and free money. And, apparently they do it better than Revel since people play at those casinos and not at Revel...
Quote: kvitlekhSo what's the mathematically best way to play off the free slot play? I don't see how there could be differing opinions about it. Some people say play the electronic roulette and guarantee yourself 97% or whatever, some say reel slots. I don't see how it could be correct to sacrifice 2+% just to reduce the variance a bit. Assuming a $.50 9/6 JoB (40k hands), which is the better way to play the slot play?
I would personally play VP since it's 9/6 JoB and I like VP. And when I ran those 10,000 sims last night over 20k hands, the worst result was about -$6500 (93.5% return on the freeplay). I am working on the 40k hand sim now. You possibly can get a less volatile return by hedging the craps passline on bubble craps (expected 98.6% return), but that sounds boring as hell as well.
Quote: NYCGamblerWOW. This looks very detailed. I'm not a statistician, but is there a way to combine the original bankroll and the free credit bank roll together into one analysis/histogram?
I would have to mess my code around a bit because I use a single paytable as input, and for this you would ideally play two different games. 9/6 DDB for the "Going for It" phase, and 9/6 JoB for the "Grinding it Back" phase.
Quote: tringlomaneYou possibly can get a less volatile return by hedging the craps passline on bubble craps (expected 98.6% return), but that sounds boring as hell as well.
I don't think they have electronic craps there.
Quote: FroggerI don't think they have electronic craps there.
Oh well, VP is more fun anyway. ;)
Since kvitlekh mentioned that 50c 9/6 JoB also existed at Revel, I ran the numbers for grinding $100k of freeplay over 40k hands of $2.50 each 10,000 times.
$`Ruin/Win Results`
Results
Sims 10000.0000000
BuyIn 1.0000000
ROI % -0.4560956
SD 4.4175419
Trad. Ruin % 100.0000000
Sim. Loss % 62.2400000
Sim. Loss w/no Royal % 99.3990713
% of Royalless Sims 36.6100000
$`Win/Loss Summary`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
-5592.0 -2082.0 -691.2 -439.6 875.0 10570.0
$`Summary of Play length`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
$`Summary of Royals`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
0.0000 0.0000 1.0000 0.9937 2.0000 6.0000
$`Summary of Quads`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
65.0 92.0 99.0 99.1 106.0 149.0
$`BR w/o RF`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. NA's
-5592 -3082 -2435 -2433 -1792 1260 6339
$`BR w/RF`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. NA's
-4158.0 -607.5 362.5 711.5 1725.0 10570.0 3661.0
Here it looks like you will win all your freeplay back (or more) about 38% of the time. 75% of the time you'll win $98,000 back or more (net loss of $2000 or less).
Here is the histogram (scale is zoomed in vs. other one):
Quote: BozI stated it would take a lot for me to go into Revel and this is it. Not the loss rebate offer, it is worthless to me as I am not going to travel 3 hours each week for 20 weeks to just get my money back assuming I will lose. But the match is a great deal. My wife gets many days with $200 to $400 free play at Caesars. We usually dont use most of them, but now that we can do this, we will make special trips. I expect to take $2000 to $3000 from Revel over the course of the month without $1 out of pocket money played there or spent there other than drink tips.
I do expect to hurt her AC ADT with CZR Properties, but that is easily made up with a few trips in the fall of normal play (and probable losses).
If your wife is getting $200-400 free play days she sure isn't playing $5 9/6 JOB. The theoretical is so low on those games that you won't even get cash back on $10,000 coin-in. $25,000 coin in gets you $9 dollars in cash back. Only way to decent free play offers at Caesars is play games with awful returns or slots which return about 90%. If you give them 100K coin-in you might get $50-75 free play offers but you are losing $450 for each $100K play. Caesars is very quick to lower your offers. In the old days a couple of big plays would keep large bounce back offers coming for months. Now
they adjust each month. If you give them a huge play on a 98-99% machine you might garner some big free play offers but if you pick up more than a few your ADT will drop to nothing. The beginning of the end started at Bally's. They use to offer .6 cashback on $2 and $1 9/6 JOB. The grinders would come in and set up shop around 7am and quit around 5pm near every day. They would write down every four of a kind or any other ridiculous stat in their log books. They would get huge free play offers, almost every day of the month a $100 free play coupon, gifts, gift cards, invites, you name it. After about six months to a year that party all came to end as Bally's slashed the cash back and with it the theoretical. How bad is it now. They have a $5 9/6 triple play that plays almost no cash back and you earn at RCS at 1/2 the rate of single line 9/6 JOB.
Just came from Revel. They have taken out ALL $25 video poker. Biggest VP is now $5. And on those machines, there iis no DDB, and the JoB is 8/5. There are still $100 reel slots at 2 credits.is it still worth playing VP?
Quote: kvitlekhNEWSFLASH:
Just came from Revel. They have taken out ALL $25 video poker. Biggest VP is now $5. And on those machines, there iis no DDB, and the JoB is 8/5. There are still $100 reel slots at 2 credits.is it still worth playing VP?
If true I would love if wizard would respond by apologizing or if he still maintains there is plenty of pie to go around and perfect information is wonderful.
Quote: randompersonIf true I would love if wizard would respond by apologizing or if he still maintains there is plenty of pie to go around and perfect information is wonderful.
correlation and causation are not the same thing.
Quote: rdw4potuscorrelation and causation are not the same thing.
Apologizing for being wrong, not for causation.
Although if he had deleted the thread, it's much more likely the machines would be up. There is a strong chance he cost the ap community millions of dollars with his morality. Not provable but he did publish the first numbers and go on a radio show about it so he is the leading candidate.
Quote: kvitlekhNEWSFLASH: Just came from Revel. They have taken out ALL $25 video poker. Biggest VP is now $5. And on those machines, there iis no DDB, and the JoB is 8/5.
Nice job, everyone. Maybe some of you will learn to STFU the next time something valuable but vulnerable to being destroyed comes along.
A lot of APs got to spend a lot of time on this designing sophisticated mathematical models. Oh, well, they'll be prepared next time.
The amusing thing is that by taking out high denomination games, Revel is making the casino unattractive to the high rollers that they have supposedly been wanting to bring in as customers. It's frankly ridiculous that such a beautiful property, with such high pretensions, doesn't have $100 VP and $500 reels.
Quote: Bhappycome on guys wizard did not do anything wrong. Randy Fine is a very intelligent person. Only a moron would not think of the potential liability of high denomination VP machines.
Ya and he hasn't done anything else a moron would do so QED right?
Quote: IbeatyouracesSuch paranoia going on.
Maybe before they removed the good games, you could have used that word to refer to people telling everyone to shut up. Now it seems kind of odd.
The promotion was designed to generate buzz in the gaming community; certainly they would expect this group to talk about it. The Wiz is a gaming expert who publicly discusses the industry and best bets and strategy on radio and tv; certainly they would hope for and welcome him endorsing their promotion as a great thing. I think you're awfully quick to think you''re the only ones who hoped to take advantage of this promotion; it's designed to make you think they're giving you a great deal.
The Wiz can more than defend himself, I'm sure, but this is nonsense.
Quote: beachbumbabsWhy would y'all not think the Revel was planning this retrenchment from the time they announced the promotion? It's classic bait-and-switch, where you think you know what they have, but they plan to change the machines a few days before the July promotion starts. If it were my promotion, I certainly would protect my exposure, not just like they did by limiting it to only certain machines on the flyer (no live games), but then changing their denominations.
The promotion was designed to generate buzz in the gaming community; certainly they would expect this group to talk about it. The Wiz is a gaming expert who publicly discusses the industry and best bets and strategy on radio and tv; certainly they would hope for and welcome him endorsing their promotion as a great thing. I think you're awfully quick to think you''re the only ones who hoped to take advantage of this promotion; it's designed to make you think they're giving you a great deal.
The Wiz can more than defend himself, I'm sure, but this is nonsense.
All the evidence we have of casinos in the field suggests that they use much more inductive rather than deductive reasoning. They do things because they have worked at some place in the past. If some of it worked, why won't more of it work? They think like that. They aren't as much of deductive thinkers. They look at wins and losses rather than ev way too much.
This reminds me of the story frank kneeland told on gawe of the casino that had fpdw in dollars but it was dreadfully slow. Someone asked them to change it to a faster speed and they did it. After all, if we are making money on these machines why won't we make more money if they are faster? Well the pros found them worthwhile at the faster speed and they cleared house.
Casinos do shit like this all the time. The revel probably thought the people that would come would be exactly like their other customers except more of them. They would win money offering this promotion to only those customers. Someone tells them in advance this time that the pros are coming. Now they can take countermeasures before the thing even starts.
It's entirely possible they were planning it all along. It's just not how casinos think.
Quote: IbeatyouracesExactly what they did. Had nothing to do with any discussion here.
Yeah the value of loss rebates is well understood. People act like casinos never hire mathematicians to analyse their games and promotions. Here's a hint the wizard has worked for casinos as do a number of other mathematicians what do you think they do. The simple fact is they probably had always planned to take those machines out before the promotion started.
Quote: TwirdmanYeah the value of loss rebates is well understood. People act like casinos never hire mathematicians to analyse their games and promotions. Here's a hint the wizard has worked for casinos as do a number of other mathematicians what do you think they do. The simple fact is they probably had always planned to take those machines out before the promotion started.
So there is some chance that's true, some chance it's not. So people like wizard should still shut up because instead of a straight up millions of dollars ev loss, it's now a millions of dollars times the probabilty it matters ev loss which is still massive.
Quote: IbeatyouracesYep and it happens a lot. There is more to making changes then just doing it on a whim. You need approvals from various agencies.
Exactly.
Quote: IbeatyouracesWhoa, hes to say whatever he likes on HIS site.
Obviously the first amendment and whatnot. Not what he is legally allowed to do but what he should do obv.
Quote: IbeatyouracesYep and it happens a lot. There is more to making changes then just doing it on a whim. You need approvals from various agencies.
So they need approval to remove a machine? They need approval to change a pay table? I doubt it but I would love to see some details. Maybe a list of all these agencies would help. Doubt if the plural is appropriate, even if there is one such agency.
For a promotion that was months in the planning they had to know what their liability was. It's not that difficult to commission a statistician to crunch the numbers. Now the promotion is perfectly set up to attract the customers the Revel wants most. Small denomination slot players that will lose in July and lose way beyond their free play in the next 5 months. The hardcore penny, nickel, quarter and dollar slot players. The one's that wager 200-300 pennies.
And it is highly likely that Revel was planning to do this all along; Wizard himself noted earlier in this thread that they might 'pull a Riviera' and restrict all but the smallest VP machines. Unlikely that secret Revel informants were spying on this thread and reporting Wizard's (and others') analyses.
Wizard should be idolized and revered for his innovative and eye-opening gambling analyses and advice.
Quote: kvitlekh
Wizard should be idolized and revered for his innovative and eye-opening gambling analyses and advice.
I would prefer not to be in a religious cult atmosphere. It's better to call people out when they are wrong and simply agree when they are right, like in the sciences.
Quote: kvitlekhBefore we all assume that suddenly the promo isn't worth playing, isn't it worth analyzing mathematically if there is somehow the promo can still be salvaged? The $100 reel slots are still available.
And it is highly likely that Revel was planning to do this all along; Wizard himself noted earlier in this thread that they might 'pull a Riviera' and restrict all but the smallest VP machines. Unlikely that secret Revel informants were spying on this thread and reporting Wizard's (and others') analyses.
Wizard should be idolized and revered for his innovative and eye-opening gambling analyses and advice.
$100 dollar slots can be geared to nickel and dime you to death. Just keep giving you small payouts as your money gets run into the ground. All New Jersey requires are slots return 83% minimum.
How the slots get to that return can be done any number of ways. What you want to do with a $100 slot is keep the customer playing. $500 here, $1500 there with idea that the customer thinks he is going to hit the big one for $50K or $100K.
Quote: JackStraw8004Your basically chasing out any of your regular customers who play $25 video poker machines for the whole month of July.
Sure, let's pretend that those people exist:-)
Quote: randompersonApologizing for being wrong, not for causation.
Although if he had deleted the thread, it's much more likely the machines would be up. There is a strong chance he cost the ap community millions of dollars with his morality. Not provable but he did publish the first numbers and go on a radio show about it so he is the leading candidate.
I disagree with you, they could simply say, "No VP," on the entire promotion and be done with it. That they took the machines out is indicative that they were taking the machines out. You can have specific machines that do not earn points or qualify for stuff, for example, Wheeling Island has the Spielo VP/Keno machines on which you can use FP, but cannot earn points. Which is odd, because the VP sucks anyway, I believe.
Quote: randompersonSo there is some chance that's true, some chance it's not. So people like wizard should still shut up because instead of a straight up millions of dollars ev loss, it's now a millions of dollars times the probabilty it matters ev loss which is still massive.
Oh, The Wizard should shut up?
Maybe you should prove that this message board or GWAE had something to do with it before you suggest that your host here should shut up.
Guess what? It probably didn't. These guys know what they are doing and they know which games get killed. I understand you're upset because you were going to hammer this thing, and I think there are many AP's who are upset, but instead of wasting time pointing the finger, just adjust your game plan.
For example, there is still a ton of value in those $100/denom slots.
Another shot at The Wizard will be a month ban for you, unless you have proof, or can make your point respectfully.
Have you ever played in Jersey? Do you have any idea of the controls mandated by state law and exercised by the DGE and CCC?Quote: randompersonThe revel probably thought the people that would come would be exactly like their other customers except more of them. They would win money offering this promotion to only those customers. Someone tells them in advance this time that the pros are coming. Now they can take countermeasures before the thing even starts. It's entirely possible they were planning it all along. It's just not how casinos think.
I don't think the Revel is afraid to potentially lose a bit of money to a few players, just the Free Play match for July has theoretically infinite value for a player who intends to just run his Free Play through and roll out without gambling any of his own money under any circumstances. This rebate will still have +ER for anyone who is not a complete screw-up, but I'd be highly shocked if the Revel took out these machines because of what was said here, or anywhere else, even though they were originally planning to leave them in.
Quote: HunterhillWell lets keep explaining exactly how to beat it and how much we can make,so that Revel will make it unplayable.Everyone keep talking.
Oh, come on!!!!
Are you really suggesting that the Revel doesn't know that, if they match a Free Play offer, that someone could just run the Free Play through and leave?
Really?
You really believe they either need an Internet message board or a Harvard educated mathematician to figure that one out?
Trust me, with the $25 VP gone, they will make more money than they lose, now. Many AP's won't want any part of the slots without knowing what the specific expected return is, not to mention the probability distribution. It's still advantageous, but optimal stop-win points would be a semi-educated guess, at best.
Quote: HunterhillIf you think discussions here have no effect on promotions,I`m afraid you are sadly misinformed.I have fist hand information that says otherwise.I will not go into more detail,but this board is read by some higher ups.enough said.
Oh, first hand information from a source that will remain anonymous. I have first hand information from a source that will remain anonymous that they were pulling the $25 VP before this promo was even announced.
Quote: Mission146Oh, The Wizard should shut up?
Maybe you should prove that this message board or GWAE had something to do with it before you suggest that your host here should shut up.
Guess what? It probably didn't. These guys know what they are doing and they know which games get killed. I understand you're upset because you were going to hammer this thing, and I think there are many AP's who are upset, but instead of wasting time pointing the finger, just adjust your game plan.
For example, there is still a ton of value in those $100/denom slots.
Another shot at The Wizard will be a month ban for you, unless you have proof, or can make your point respectfully.
That is proof, it's proof he cost everyone ev. We don't know how much ev, but my estimation is it's substantial.
The point is that we don't know if the casino would have done this anyway, but there is some chance that they wouldn't have and so we adjust the cost for the nonzero probability that the message board and gawe matter.
I'm not wasting time. We have to show everyone that posts online have consequences. We had a bunch of people that never intended to play the promo costing everyone who did intend to play the promo. We should make sure people know what happens when they do that so they don't do it again.
Quote: SanchoPanzaHave you ever played in Jersey? Do you have any idea of the controls mandated by state law and exercised by the DGE and CCC?
No fill me in.
