Revel promotion sounds too good to be true

Quote: Hunterhill

Why is the win goal listed as $25 units but the average win is listed as $125 units?

It's not. Everything is in $125 units.

Unless he changed it since you posted this.

Quote: kvitlekh

First, thanks to the Wizard for his detailed analysis. What I don't understand, however, is why someone would play 9-6 Double Double Bonus, which returns 98.98%, instead of 9-6 Jacks or Better, which with optimal strategy returns 99.54% (numbers taken from the Wizard's site, obviously).

Hi and welcome to the forum. The reason for playing 9/6 ddb is that it's best to win or lose as quickly as possible in a promo like this. Revel has 9/6 JoB at $5 ($25/hand), but offers the 9/6 DDB paytable at the $25 denomination ($125/hand). I took those numbers from VPfree2, which lists only "good" VP games. It occurs to me now that for this promo it might be better still to play a worse paytable at a higher denomination. When I was at Revel this last weekend, I didn't think to see if higher denominations were available, and what the paytables were on those machines.

Quote:

Why is the win goal listed as $25 units but the average win is listed as $125 units?

As someone else mentioned, I was referring to a $25-denomination game, which has a max bet of 5 coins, or $125.

Quote: AxelWolf

As far as talking about some different aspects of the promotion seems okay however, some things are better left unsaid. Unfortunately there are people who just like to talk about ways to win but never actually play anything, so its no skin off their nose. Then there are people who actually go play and win. If people keep talking about what the best games to play are before the promotion starts this may prompt the casino to exclude certain machines, create restrictions or make rule changes. I can think of a few ways they could make this hard on AP's (Hooters comes to mind) REMEMBER casinos reserve the right to.................screw advantage players

I'd like to see players win as much from this as possible. I wasn't the one who posted this thread, but a number of people asked me for my advice on how to play it. That is what I'm trying to do, advise those players who already know about it how to milk for all its worth. I'm sure those players who already know about the promotion and how to play it would prefer I delete the whole thread and prohibit further talk about it. However, I'm not going to do that. I believe the world would be a better place if there were unfettered access to truthful information, and I aim to provide that.

Quote: Wizard

Win goal	Prob success	Average win
100	73.1%	166.29
200	63.3%	222.06
300	56.7%	257.69
400	51.2%	284.36
500	46.6%	304.45
600	42.8%	319.62
700	39.3%	331.32
800	36.1%	340.25
900	33.3%	347.00
1000	30.7%	351.26
1100	28.4%	353.81
1200	26.4%	354.83
1300	24.6%	355.02
1400	22.9%	354.12
1500	21.4%	352.21
1600	20.0%	349.41
1700	18.8%	345.94
1800	17.6%	341.87
1900	16.5%	337.51
2000	15.5%	332.67
2100	7.0%	159.38
2200	4.2%	99.33
2300	2.5%	60.76
2400	1.4%	36.28
2500	0.8%	20.60
2600	0.3%	9.12
2700	0.1%	2.32

Thanks for the full table.

An interesting thing about this promotion is that if you hit your win goal on trip 1, you can go home and that's it. If you don't hit that win goal, you have to go back 20 more times. So there is tremendous value in hitting the win goal. Personally, I wouldn't mind sacrificing a few units of average win to get a higher probability of initial success. A win goal of 900 with a probability of 33.3% looks like the sweet spot to me, while sacrificing only 8 units from optimal play disregarding trips.

Quote: sodawater

Thanks for the full table.

An interesting thing about this promotion is that if you hit your win goal on trip 1, you can go home and that's it. If you don't hit that win goal, you have to go back 20 more times. So there is tremendous value in hitting the win goal. Personally, I wouldn't mind sacrificing a few units of average win to get a higher probability of initial success. A win goal of 900 with a probability of 33.3% looks like the sweet spot to me, while sacrificing only 8 units from optimal play disregarding trips.

You're welcome. I'm glad some appreciate the effort.

Yes, my table didn't consider the value of the player's time at all. Depending on how far I would have travel, I personally would probably quit even sooner than 900. If I had to travel from Baltimore, I'd probably quit around 600 to 700 units ahead.

Here is the data I got by simulation. Mike and I agree that a win-goal of 1260 is optimal, but our net-win values are off by about 10 units. (edit. my analysis is 9/6 JOB, not DDB, that's the answer -- $25/$125). I also give the average number of hours of play required, at 500 hands per hour, to complete the play with a given win goal. After a while, the extra hours required do very little to increase expected net-win. I favor lower win-goals than "optimal" suggests, based on the value the player puts on his time.

Quote: rdw4potus

Hi and welcome to the forum. The reason for playing 9/6 ddb is that it's best to win or lose as quickly as possible in a promo like this. Revel has 9/6 JoB at $5 ($25/hand), but offers the 9/6 DDB paytable at the $25 denomination ($125/hand). I took those numbers from VPfree2, which lists only "good" VP games. It occurs to me now that for this promo it might be better still to play a worse paytable at a higher denomination. When I was at Revel this last weekend, I didn't think to see if higher denominations were available, and what the paytables were on those machines.

Then why play video poker at all? Why not a high denomination slot on which you would likely go broke very fast but have a small chance at a huge jackpot?

Quote: kvitlekh

Then why play video poker at all? Why not a high denomination slot on which you would likely go broke very fast but have a small chance at a huge jackpot?

The main reason we are not discussing them is because we do not know the house edge, volatility, etc. of slot machines and we cannot engage in the academic excercises seen above without that information but it may well be a better strategy.

Quote: bigfoot66

The main reason we are not discussing them is because we do not know the house edge, volatility, etc. of slot machines and we cannot engage in the academic excercises seen above without that information but it may well be a better strategy.

I think somebody posted that the highest denom games were $25 in video poker and $100 in slots. If we assume a 3-coin bet on the slot machine, it is possible that is the better game to play. Casino Player magazine publishes the actual return of slots for each casino in Atlantic City. They probably don't get much play at the $100 level, so I wouldn't trust an actual return very much, but assume it to be set at about 97%.

When the Riviera did this I recommended playing slots, after they restricted all but the very low denomination video poker.

It isn't that we just throw our hands in the air when it comes to slots, but it pretty much comes down to a guessing game. The math is much more pure with video poker. I wouldn't scold anybody for playing $100 slots at max coin on this. It may be that the $25 video poker games are hard to get on, in which case the slot option may not be much of an option.

Quote: Wizard

It isn't that we just throw our hands in the air when it comes to slots, but it pretty much comes down to a guessing game. The math is much more pure with video poker. I wouldn't scold anybody for playing $100 slots at max coin on this. It may be that the $25 video poker games are hard to get on, in which case the slot option may not be much of an option.

This is a much more eloquent way to say what I was trying to say.

I am reminded about the guy who ran into an economist on all 4's under a street light. Guy asks why and he says that he is looking for his lost keys. Guy asks "Oh you dropped your keys here?" Economist replies, " No I dropped them in the gutter across the street, but the light is a lot better over here."

Take two, simulating 9/6 DDB, max-coin (5x$25 = $125). I ran 1M players per line.

I see from Revel's own website that electronic table games are eligible. Does this change any calculations on how to attack the rebate?

Quote: Jon21

I see from Revel's own website that electronic table games are eligible. Does this change any calculations on how to attack the rebate?

I doubt it. Electronic table games tend to have low maximum bets and the house edge on volatile bets, which we want for this promotion, is much higher than video poker.

Quote: Wizard

If we assume a 3-coin bet on the slot machine,

I thought the $100s are usually 1 "coin" bet? I know when we threw a couple hundreds in the Wheel Of Fortune $100, it was one pull per bill. I don't know if they are mostly like that or not.

Most $100s that i have seen allow 2 or 3 coins to be bet.

I took a walk around the hi limit slot lounge today at Revel. I saw a few $100 machines (slots), and some of those allow you to bet 2 credits. No $100 machines with 3 credits. I also saw many $25 9/6 JoB machines. And I know of at least 1 $.50 9/6 JoB machine (don't know if this is important to anyone). So if both DDB and JoB are available at the same denomination, is it much better to play JoB?

Thanks

Quote: kvitlekh

I took a walk around the hi limit slot lounge today at Revel. I saw a few $100 machines (slots), and some of those allow you to bet 2 credits. No $100 machines with 3 credits. I also saw many $25 9/6 JoB machines. And I know of at least 1 $.50 9/6 JoB machine (don't know if this is important to anyone). So if both DDB and JoB are available at the same denomination, is it much better to play JoB?

This is big news about the 9-6 JoB machines. Somebody should tell vpfree2 about it. I'll run a simulation for that overnight. The return is higher, but the volatility is less, so it isn't obvious which game is the better choice.

Quote: kvitlekh

I also saw many $25 9/6 JoB machines...So if both DDB and JoB are available at the same denomination, is it much better to play JoB?

The following table shows the probability of success and average win (in units) for 9-6 jacks or better.

Goal	Prob. Success	Avg. win
100	63.4%	220.5
200	54.1%	273.0
300	50.2%	293.3
400	47.4%	306.5
500	44.7%	318.1
600	41.8%	329.1
700	38.6%	339.7
800	35.1%	349.6
900	31.7%	357.3
1000	29.3%	361.5
1100	27.4%	363.6
1200	25.7%	364.6
1300	24.1%	364.5
1400	22.6%	363.5
1500	21.1%	361.6
1600	19.8%	358.9
1700	18.5%	355.6
1800	17.4%	352.0
1900	16.4%	347.9
2000	15.5%	343.4

So, expected value is maximized at a goal of 1,200, considering goals evenly divisible by 100 only. Let's take a closer look at the range from 1,100 to 1,300.

Goal	Prob. Success	Avg. win
1100	27.4%	363.64
1110	27.2%	363.83
1120	27.1%	363.97
1130	26.9%	364.07
1140	26.7%	364.16
1150	26.6%	364.28
1160	26.4%	364.34
1170	26.2%	364.41
1180	26.1%	364.46
1190	25.9%	364.52
1200	25.7%	364.58
1210	25.6%	364.62
1220	25.4%	364.63
1230	25.3%	364.66
1240	25.1%	364.65
1250	24.9%	364.64
1260	24.8%	364.59
1270	24.6%	364.56
1280	24.5%	364.54
1290	24.3%	364.49
1300	24.1%	364.45

So, expected value is maximized at a goal of 1,230, with a 25.3% chance of success and expected win of 364.66 units.

I showed in this post that playing 9-6 double double bonus the maximum value is achieved with a goal of 1,260 units, also with a 25.3% chance of success, and expected win of 355.11 units.

So, to answer the question, expected value is 364.66-355.11=9.55 units higher playing jacks or better.

Quote: Wizard

Thank you for your analysis.

Just to clarify, when you say units, do you mean machine credits (i.e., $5 for a $5 machine; $25 for a $25 machine) or betting units (i.e., $25 for a $5 machine, $125 for a $25 machine)?

So, for example, on a $5 machine would the optimal win goal be $6,150 or $30,750?

A friend in New Jersey is considering taking advantage of this promotion.

Quote: teddys

Just to clarify, when you say units, do you mean machine credits (i.e., $5 for a $5 machine; $25 for a $25 machine) or betting units (i.e., $25 for a $5 machine, $125 for a $25 machine)?

Betting units.

Quote:

So, for example, on a $5 machine would the optimal win goal be $6,150 or $30,750?

1230*$25 = $30,750.

Quote:

A friend in New Jersey is considering taking advantage of this promotion.

He should.

Some questions (I hope they aren't too dumb to be raised).

1) If the chances of success are x, does that mean that the rest of the time you go broke, or does it mean that you simply don't reach your goal?

2) How does doubling or halving the bankroll affect the % of success? Does it necessarily also double or get halved?

3) Can it be estimated how good the comps/mailers will be for 9/6 JoB?

thanks

(PS - I live within minutes of Revel and could potentially be an ally to someone who lives a distance away but wants to take advantage of the promo. PM if interested.)

Current preparation: Teams of investors and bankrolled players assembling, millions of USD and credit lines, and attorneys on stand by in case of casino mischief.

Concurrent: Revel in-house legal and consultants running "what-if" scenarios and planning "out" strategies. These include background checks on all participants and associates to ferret out AP connections that would provide cover for non-payout of wins and withholding of rebates. Preparation of restrictive and bizarre rule tightening of ease of rebate acquisition. Example: must be at least 48 hours between obtaining weekly rebates. Video poker not allowed. Possibly excluding or removing $25 VP from HL before July 1st.

This could get interesting.

Quote: kvitlekh

(PS - I live within minutes of Revel and could potentially be an ally to someone who lives a distance away but wants to take advantage of the promo. PM if interested.)

I think that this is a profoundly bad idea. If you have $100,000 in freeplay coming to you and they find out that you have been breaking any rules they could take away that money. You have to figure that they are going to keep a better eye on guys that they are giving that much money to, and you would have to do it 20 times without getting caught.

Wiz, would it be too much to ask for some numbers for stoploss amounts smaller than 100K for 9/6 JOB? Clearly if we halve the stoploss and the stopwin amounts, the expected win will be greater than half the amount listed in your table. Perhaps the gains taper off rapidly enough by the time the stopwin gets up toward 100K that it might be a decent plan to optimize for a stoploss of say $60K.

It's even possible that the expectation will go UP by reducing the stoploss. Given a game and denom, there must be at least one [stoploss, stopwin] combination that will maximize expectation. It isn't a given that optimizing for a 100K stoploss will be superior to optimizing for any stoploss lower than 100K...

Quote: kvitlekh

1) If the chances of success are x, does that mean that the rest of the time you go broke, or does it mean that you simply don't reach your goal?

You go broke. My simulations assume you play until you lose the 800 units or achieving your winning goal.

Quote:

2) How does doubling or halving the bankroll affect the % of success? Does it necessarily also double or get halved?

Here is a table for a 200-unit bankroll. I added a row for the optimal win goal of 690 units, which has an expected profit of 131.30 units.

Goal	Prob. Success	Avg. win
100	45.7%	95.93
200	33.3%	114.97
300	27.1%	123.22
400	22.7%	127.83
500	19.5%	130.21
600	17.4%	131.14
690	15.8%	131.30
700	15.6%	131.30
800	14.0%	130.81
900	12.5%	129.80
1,000	11.2%	128.33
1,100	10.2%	126.68
1,200	9.3%	124.83
1,300	8.5%	122.81
1,400	7.8%	120.71
1,500	7.2%	118.48
1,600	6.7%	116.11
1,700	6.2%	113.78
1,800	5.7%	111.41
1,900	5.3%	109.05
2,000	5.0%	106.67

Quote:

3) Can it be estimated how good the comps/mailers will be for 9/6 JoB?

I would assume a value of zero. By the time this is done I think they will realize a huge mistake with this promotion and not be in a very generous mood to let players double-dip with comps and mailers.

Quote: bigfoot66

I think that this is a profoundly bad idea. If you have $100,000 in freeplay coming to you and they find out that you have been breaking any rules they could take away that money. You have to figure that they are going to keep a better eye on guys that they are giving that much money to, and you would have to do it 20 times without getting caught.

I will find out for sure, but I don't see the problem with playing someone else's slot play on their card with their pin #. Unless they specifically prohibit this (which I haven't seen written anywhere). And we already know that they aren't very savvy when it comes to these promos...

Quote: Wizard

By the time this is done I think they will realize a huge mistake with this promotion and not be in a very generous mood to let players double-dip with comps and mailers.

Would you say that Revel has been the most mismanaged $2.4 billion casino ever?

Quote: LocNguyen

Wiz, would it be too much to ask for some numbers for stoploss amounts smaller than 100K for 9/6 JOB? Clearly if we halve the stoploss and the stopwin amounts, the expected win will be greater than half the amount listed in your table. Perhaps the gains taper off rapidly enough by the time the stopwin gets up toward 100K that it might be a decent plan to optimize for a stoploss of say $60K.

The table in my last post for a 200-unit bankroll shows an optimal expected win of 131.3 units. Compare that to 355.11 units for an 800-unit bankroll.

My advice is to get your hands on every penny you can for this promotion, up to $100,000. Then bet on the $25-denom ($125 total bet) video poker games until you achieve the appropriate winning goal or go bust trying.

I'll post some tables for 25, 50, 100, and 400 unit bankrolls before July 1. My computer is running the simulations now.

Quote:

It's even possible that the expectation will go UP by reducing the stoploss. Given a game and denom, there must be at least one [stoploss, stopwin] combination that will maximize expectation. It isn't a given that optimizing for a 100K stoploss will be superior to optimizing for any stoploss lower than 100K...

No. This is called the "you can't lose" promotion. The more money you put into this the greater your expected return.

Quote: Wizard

You go broke. My simulations assume you play until you lose the 800 units or achieving your winning goal.



Here is a table for a 200-unit bankroll. I added a row for the optimal win goal of 690 units, which has an expected profit of 131.30 units.

Goal	Prob. Success	Avg. win
100	45.7%	95.93
200	33.3%	114.97
300	27.1%	123.22
400	22.7%	127.83
500	19.5%	130.21
600	17.4%	131.14
690	15.8%	131.30
700	15.6%	131.30
800	14.0%	130.81
900	12.5%	129.80
1,000	11.2%	128.33
1,100	10.2%	126.68
1,200	9.3%	124.83
1,300	8.5%	122.81
1,400	7.8%	120.71
1,500	7.2%	118.48
1,600	6.7%	116.11
1,700	6.2%	113.78
1,800	5.7%	111.41
1,900	5.3%	109.05
2,000	5.0%	106.67

I would assume a value of zero. By the time this is done I think they will realize a huge mistake with this promotion and not be in a very generous mood to let players double-dip with comps and mailers.

So cutting the bankroll in 4 resulted in a 15.8% of success at the optimal goal, down from 25.3%. At the risk of asking too much, what would the table look like with, say, 2,000 units?

I ask because they offer 9/6 JoB all the way from $.50 to $25 and we wouldn't want people with only modest amounts of $ to miss out.

(PS I recently sent you an email alerting you to a possible mistake in one of your pay tables.)

and thanks again for the great work.

Apologies for the redundancy; the Wizard's reply above came as I was typing this.

Wiz, thanks for the quick answer and the numbers on the 200u stoploss!

Quote: Wizard

No. This is called the "you can't lose" promotion. The more money you put into this the greater your expected return.

Ok, after reading this I realized that you're mostly right but there is still a limit to how high to set the stoploss even in theory. For instance, if the max loss was $10 million, I believe your expectation will be *exactly* the same whether you actually are prepared to lose the full 10 mil or plan to call it a day once you drop 9 mil. And even that is based on treating the reimbursement as a true cash equivalent, which isn't precisely correct. Even ignoring the added variance, there is still the churning cost of -.0046 on the freeplay. So that's an extreme, but it's an example of doing better by reducing the stoploss.

I'll be interested to see to what extent this effect kicks in as the stoploss approaches 100K. I'll plot your 25, 50, 100, 200, 400, and 800 results on a scatter graph and post.

I wouldn't say that you can't lose. There are risks some of which I listed before. Many are intangible and cannot be simmed or approximated. There is also a significant chance that the promo maximum will be severely capped during or even before the first week.

Quote: kvitlekh

I will find out for sure, but I don't see the problem with playing someone else's slot play on their card with their pin #. Unless they specifically prohibit this (which I haven't seen written anywhere). And we already know that they aren't very savvy when it comes to these promos...

All casinos have a problem with this if they find out about it. Also, I am assuming the Revel is going to make everyone go to the player club booth to get the freeplay put on each week. They are going to want to see ID to make sure the person is actually there. With up to $5000 a week for a player, they are going to take it very serious.

Quote: AbeFrohman

I wouldn't say that you can't lose. There are risks some of which I listed before. Many are intangible and cannot be simmed or approximated. There is also a significant chance that the promo maximum will be severely capped during or even before the first week.

Wait until the last week, make sure it is the same.

Quote: Wizard

I encourage discussion to continue. This forum is tiny compared to the size of the Revel, so it should have little effect.

Just how does one compare a 2 dimensional forum to a 3D Revel?

You would have to be quite disciplined to take advantage of this offer too. 20 weeks in a casino and only using loss rebates is something that only the most disciplined I think could handle.

Quote: kvitlekh

And we already know that they aren't very savvy when it comes to these promos...

The person behind this promo is Randy Fine (of the Fine Point Group). I don't know him, but have heard his name many times and always in a very positive light. The guy is apparently very smart (Harvard educated). So, even though the promo seems mysterious to some of us, I can only assume that they have already done all the math and know what they are doing.

Quote: jon

So, even though the promo seems mysterious to some of us, I can only assume that they have already done all the math and know what they are doing.

Isn't it like taking out a short term loan from one's customers, payable in 20 weeks?

Quote: Nareed

Isn't it like taking out a short term loan from one's customers, payable in 20 weeks?

That's exactly what I noted earlier in this thread. At a very high rate of interest. Having just emerged from bankruptcy, the banks/investors probably won't loan Revel any more money. So why not borrow it from the players?! Brilliant!

Quote: jon

The person behind this promo is Randy Fine (of the Fine Point Group). I don't know him, but have heard his name many times and always in a very positive light. The guy is apparently very smart (Harvard educated). So, even though the promo seems mysterious to some of us, I can only assume that they have already done all the math and know what they are doing.

I agree wholeheartedly, what does this accomplish for you if you are the Revel:

1.) Some players may give the Revel a second, and maybe even first, chance and decide that they like the place better and wish to move their action there, in part or in whole.

2.) The Revel, in its limited history, had acquired a reputation of not caring about the gamblers as well as being stingy on comps and Free Play, with exception to some of the high-rollers. The Revel wanted the majority of its market to consist of high-rollers, but could not secure enough of the high-rollers in that market.

-These promotions will dispel the belief (which was probably true) that the Revel is stingy with Comps and FreePlay.

-These promotions will show that the Revel cares about the gamblers now, and wishes to retain their business.

-These promotions will show that the Revel wishes the business of fleas and high-rollers alike, by making the minimum amount lost to qualify for the rebate such a low amount.

3.) The Revel has any number of offerings, over and above the casino, designed to separate individuals from their money. Even if people were to do well on Free Play, there may be other money-separating experiences at Revel that would be of interest to the individual...but they have to get him in the door first!

-Think about this, if you do the promo and lose, for maximum value, you MUST return twenty times.

4.) The Revel will also be counting on the lost Expected Return from those players who fail to return the twenty times. Even if your Free Play were $25-$50 (Total actual loss of $500-$1,000) it would be hardly worth diligently returning every single week, even for those who are somewhat local.

5.) Discipline is the key, as has been mentioned, to APing this promotion. Some individuals will simply lack either the discipline or desire to run the exact amount of the Free Play through and then leave. Many, if not most, will go back and run the Free Play through, see some return, and lose what was returned and possibly more.

Conclusion

Sometimes, in the most dire of circumstances, a business has to throw a Hail Mary to try to get itself some customers. They have to offer something extreme, because they have no other choice but to do so. The Revel is almost definitely in that situation, the bankruptcy offers no guarantee of future financial success as, with their gambling revenues, they were probably having difficulty just meeting operating expenses...forget about liabilities!

This is something you see at the grocery store. The fish is about to be outdated tomorrow? Throw a 75% off Clearance sticker on it and get that baby sold, do we want to break even on those cuts of fish, or at least make back what we paid for them? Protein bars going bad in a month, $1.99 each? Make them $0.50, that particular manufacturer doesn't credit us for outdates, at least we can get most of what we paid for them back.

Before the gas boom, at the hotel I managed, I once resorted to absurdly low weekly rates because an absurdly low rate still pays more than an empty room. I specifically had the guests sign a confidentiality agreement with the rate that stated it could be revoked at the end of any week, and the guest could not disclose to any other hotel, or any other guest of that hotel, what I was doing.

My wife LOADED UP on clothes from Fashion Bug when they were closing. It's simple, our lease on this location is up on x date, if we sell this stuff for x and pay the employees to be there, that will LOSE LESS MONEY than it will cost to ship it all back to the warehouse and re-distribute it.

That's just how it works. As a business, sometimes you gamble, and the Revel is gambling right now. It's an educated gamble, but they are taking a shot.

I also think it is wise of them to spread it out over twenty weeks. More visits, more opportunity to fall in love with the place and want to go there. If it were a next day promotion, I think it would be a horrible idea. I also think it is good (even though the expected player profit is greater) compared to just straight Free Play matching/doubling and have that be that. A player goes in, runs the FP through once, never returns. They probably don't think the retention rate of that would be high enough to cover the costs.

It's kind of like sacrificing the battle knowing you will win the war. Let them have their +ER, this one time, because they will never have it again...but they will, by God, come back.

Quote: kvitlekh

but I don't see the problem with playing someone else's slot play on their card with their pin #

ARE YOU KIDDING ME ? THIS IS THE TYPE OF COMMENTS THAT AMAZE ME. Seriously ? I really can't express how dumbfounded I am about all of your comment without being suspended.

Quote: AxelWolf

ARE YOU KIDDING ME ? THIS IS THE COMMENTS THAT AMAZE ME. Seriously ? I really can't express how dumbfounded I am about all of your comment without being suspended.

Yup.

Quote: jon

That's exactly what I noted earlier in this thread. At a very high rate of interest.

How do you determine the interest?

See here: I give Revel, say $10,000 today. Over 20 weeks they return to me $10,000. Assuming I play it all on their best VP table, chances are I'll lose some money. Say $150 or so all told on 6/9 JoB. So what's the interest rate, positive or negative, for Revel under such circumstances?

Of course Revel risks me coming out on top. Variance happens on every level. But $10 k at a low enough denomination, over 20 weeks to boot, does approach the infamous "long term" rather nicely.

"So... I don't know."

Quote: AxelWolf

ARE YOU KIDDING ME ? THIS IS THE TYPE OF COMMENTS THAT AMAZE ME. Seriously ? I really can't express how dumbfounded I am about all of your comment without being suspended.

1.) The first thing that I noticed when I first ever received a Free Play mailer is the stress that, "Free Play has no cash value." If Free Play has no cash value, what could one possibly be defrauding the casino of if using someone else's Free Play, and the rule that you cannot not specifically stated?

2.) If the Free Play is loaded onto your card without any requirement of identification, as it has been in all casinos in which I have played, (Of course, these were lower amounts) then it would take longer, but the player could play a machine that would make a handpay impossible. E-Craps would be a good one, from an EV standpoint.

I simply don't think they could make a case for anything, except refusing to pay a handpay. Of course, they can 86 you for any reason they want, and I imagine deactivate the Player's Club card, if they wanted to.

Here is resume of Randy Fine

Member of Board of Directors
Affinity Gaming, LLC
May 2013 – Present (2 months)Las Vegas, Nevada Area
Public Company with operations in Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, and Missouri. Election subject to regulatory approval.
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August 2012 – Present (11 months)
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February 2008 – Present (5 years 5 months)Ontario, Canada
Venture-capital backed table game optimization software startup.

The Fine Point Group
Managing Director
The Fine Point Group
July 2005 – Present (8 years)Las Vegas, Nevada Area
Las Vegas-based gaming consultancy with regional offices in Arizona, Colorado, Mississippi, and Florida. Have worked with 60 clients in more than 20 states. Developer of LaserPointCRM.

Have completed expert witness assignments for Shearman & Sterling; Strook, Strook, & Lavan; SNR Denton; and Akin Gump.

(Open)20 recommendations, including:

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January 2009 – December 2009 (1 year)Greater Detroit Area
$350M revenue casino-hotel in Detroit, Michigan. In conjunction with an FPG engagement.

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Carl Icahn-owned portfolio of four distressed casinos in Las Vegas, NV (including the Stratosphere) and the Sands Atlantic City. Icahn made profits in excess of $1 Billion on the sale of the company.


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Designed and led effort to overhaul Total Rewards, the gaming industry’s leading loyalty program. “TR2” launched June 17, 2003.

Responsible for $3B revenues and 42,000 slot machines, including game development, regulatory compliance, yield management, service delivery, merchandising, and floor design.


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July 1999 – July 2001 (2 years 1 month)



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Held this role for Divx, a technology startup owned by Circuit City.

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Taught Freshman Economics to Harvard Undergraduates

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I bet the promotion will be changed drastically before it ever starts with talk like this.

Quote: AxelWolf

ARE YOU KIDDING ME ? THIS IS THE TYPE OF COMMENTS THAT AMAZE ME. Seriously ? I really can't express how dumbfounded I am about all of your comment without being suspended.

Feel free to PM me and rant all you want. And as dumbfounded as you are, I've done other promos many times that required me to use someone else's card with their pin number, and I've never had any problems.

Quote: kvitlekh

Feel free to PM me and rant all you want. And as dumbfounded as you are, I've done other promos many times that required me to use someone else's card with their pin number, and I've never had any problems.

Many of us have, but again we are talking about a hundred effing grand here. They are not gonna make this easy for you and you would have to be a fool to think that it is worth risking $100,000 that you could get away with this 20 times.

People with lots of experience in the financial field have expressed concerns that there is a legitimate chance that Revel will declare bankruptcy if they don't do well in the next few months, and all the people who think they are due free slot play will just become creditors, and Revel has already shown that they have no problem defaulting on their creditors and basically reopening their business. Your opinion?

Some are comparing this promotion to a short-term loan to the Revel. If one must put it that way, it would be at a huge "interest rate." As I showed in this post, the player playing the whole $100,000 has a 25.3% chance at winning 1,260 units of $125, or $157,500. That is an expected win of $44,389. If he loses the 100K, then he gets it back, granted with some loss due to having to play it as free play. Let's say the actual refund is $40,000, assuming a little breakage in the Revel's favor. That is an expected win to the player of:

25.3% * $157,500 + 74.7% * -1000 = $39,100.

So, 39% interest for a short-term loan. I wish I get in on loaning money at that interest rate.

Quote: kvitlekh

People with lots of experience in the financial field have expressed concerns that there is a legitimate chance that Revel will declare bankruptcy if they don't do well in the next few months, and all the people who think they are due free slot play will just become creditors, and Revel has already shown that they have no problem defaulting on their creditors and basically reopening their business. Your opinion?

If that happened, it would be really bad publicity.

A lot of players would stay away.

Here is the table for a bankroll of 400 units. I added a row for a winning goal of 910, which is the optimal stopping point pared with a losing stop point of 400 units.

Win	Exp. Val.	Prob. Win
100	133.45	60.3%
200	169.99	48.4%
300	189.75	41.3%
400	202.35	36.1%
500	210.76	32.1%
600	216.18	28.9%
700	219.77	26.2%
800	221.98	23.6%
900	222.99	21.4%
910	223.02	21.2%
1000	222.78	19.5%
1100	221.93	17.8%
1200	220.29	16.4%
1300	218.24	15.1%
1400	215.74	14.0%
1500	212.93	12.9%
1600	209.73	12.0%
1700	206.42	11.2%
1800	202.80	10.4%
1900	199.12	9.7%
2000	195.27	9.1%

This is important so I'd like to make clear that this table would be appropriate only for the player who could raise $50,000 only. He should use that money to play $25 video poker ($125 total bet), which comes to $50,000/$125 = 400 units. Everybody should be playing $25 video poker on this promotion, it is just a matter of how many units you get your hands on and the appropriate winning stopping point for that bankroll. I've presented tables for 200, 400, and 800 units thus far.

On a related topic, I am guest hosting on Gambling with an Edge this Thursday. We taped the show yesterday and we talk quite a bit about this promotion.