Revel promotion sounds too good to be true
Quote: WRXAsk Eliot Jacobson. He doesn't look like he's living the high life.
There's a name in Texas for people like him, a name usually reserved for illegal immigrants and democrats, and I won't be repeating it in polite company.
Quote: WizardNevertheless, maybe I'll do things differently next time.
Thank you. We just need a few hundred others to think about acting with similar discretion.
Quote: WizardNevertheless, maybe I'll do things differently next time.
IDT there was anything you could've done to make a difference. If you added more people to the group, it was mostly-passive members of this board who don't otherwise check AP promotion info; maybe a few, and certainly far from the top performers, just extra fleas.
"You literally can't lose!" says just that, it doesn't need an expert to tell you this is ripe for picking.
Quote: Mission146Nothing to worry about, bait & switch would be horrible pub for them, at this point, so I don't see this one changing.
Hmmm....
Quote: WRXWe just need a few hundred others to think about acting with similar discretion.
why ????
Revel casino in A.C. owes $34.7M to 22 companies, records show
"...At least 22 companies — builders, mechanics and janitors — and a local union claim Revel owes them a total of $34.7 million, a Star-Ledger review of court records, liens and notices of unpaid debt shows..."
http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/09/revel_casino_owes_347m_to_at_l.html
Quote: TexasOilManPeteQuote: fivespotQuote: camaplAs was disclosed on this forum, the Revel is in financial trouble. Whether you like this casino or its management or not, any plan to take them for so much money with little risk is unethical. Just because you can does not mean you always should. Is it too much to ask for a little professionalism from professional gamblers as a collective?
LOL. This is, of course, why Revel conducts detailed interviews with prospective customers, making sure that they aren't in financial trouble before taking their money. That is what they do, right?
That's an excellent point! I'll take your advice. The moment I see that the few hundred thousand a year I take out of casinos threatens the viability of the hundred-billion-dollar American gaming industry, I will cut back and start going easy on them.
Seriously, what is it with so many people in this forum treating billion-dollar corporations like they were helpless baby bunnies that must be nurtured and protected? Rest assured, they do not feel the same towards you.
Son, there's an old saying in Texas that my grandpappy used to tell me...
You can shear a sheep many times, but skin 'em only once. Casinos know their best "customers" like camapl here, and they prefer to shear 'em, keepin 'em comin' back for more time and again. People campl that aren't much more than children who think they're gettin' away with a fast one by tellin' their mama that the dog ate their ice cream to try to get a freebie, they're the perfect target for the casinos. The casino goes "oh, really? The dog got it? well here, have another" and they laugh all the way to the bank.
When a buncha smart fellers started hittin' up the revel, they knew it was more than an ice cream cone on the line this time, so they tried to skin 'em. Looks like they might've found a wolf in sheep's clothing, though...
I'm shocked that anyone would blame you personally for the casino changing this promotion I don't think YOU made the casino change this promotion. I'm fairly sure you don't consult or work for that casino and its not like you found a play then started a thread telling everyone about some secret play. I believe your math skill and this site is very valuable and a asset to people who want to gamble smarter, I respect that %100. I really respect the fact that you said you may do things differently next time. That really says a great deal to the serious AP's, especially people who do this solely for a living. When it comes right down to it different people make money in different ways I assume a majority of your income is from advertising BV by providing information on a site about gambling. serious AP's make money from good plays.Perhaps if we traded shoes with you we may think different and Vice versa. However I believe with the right people and your skills you would make 20x what you make doing advantage play. I just wish the casinos didn't have access the same information you provide everyone with.Quote: WizardThanks for the compliment on my work. I admit that many here are much more experienced APs than myself. I've never said I was a world-class AP.
While your opinion is duly noted, mine is still that I helped more people beat the Mohegan Sun and my input on Revel didn't make much difference, as that promotion had abject disaster written all over it. Nevertheless, maybe I'll do things differently next time.
I'm not quite sure if i can articulate what I'm about to say without offending you or other people. I'm not sure about all the facts of Mohegan sun or how you helped. However, When a really good play comes along I don't know if by posting the math and some strategies how to crush the casinos help take a significant amount more money from the casinos probably not as much as we all think. The reason I say this is because usually its the serious AP's who really take a very large percent of the money from casinos mistakes/promotions. Most serious AP's already know or have access to that type of information. Take the Revel for instance I doubt anyone who was going out to risk 100k didn't already know what to play and have plans have plans to play what was talked about. luckily some good things were not talked about and they didn't get shut down until after the casino lost money and panicked. I'm certain if that had been talked about it probably would have been changed. Sure someone can argue that they didn't shut down all the $100 slots however i don't see anyone lined up to play them. This site and most of the people are great I just wish everybody was on the same side.
So, again, I refuse to bash the Wizard. Mistakes may have been made this time, but he is overall a force for good.
Maybe we need more information planted in news articles about how much it saves ordinary fish to gamble at Revel versus other joints. Some of these people are really math challenged. You may think it is obvious that a loss rebate is a great deal. These people think it is better to play at their lucky machine at Borgata or Caesar's than to play at a joint that rebates their losses for the month. They also tell me they can't show up every week for their rebate. This is from people that I know are coming to AC several times a week, on average. Isn't it better to collect most of your rebate than to play at a property that has no rebate at all?
I feel like I need to talk really slowly and explain everything before they grasp any part of the value proposition. One woman said, I don't want to lose $100. This is a person who comes to AC three times a week. She must be in denial.
Revel has done a poor job of explaining the promo in the press. They should remember that the people they want to attract are really slow at comprehending financial issues and are used to deluding themselves about the cost of their gambling activities. Maybe Revel should plant examples with the press: If you play penny slots for X hours a day for Y days this month, you will earn a total rebate of Z.
Quote: LossRebateMaybe we need more information planted in news articles about how much it saves ordinary fish to gamble at Revel versus other joints.
So how much does it save the ordinary fish who gets bait-and-switched on this rebate?
Quote: P90So how much does it save the ordinary fish who gets bait-and-switched on this rebate?
What bait and switch? The ordinary slot player has the same choice of games that existed in June. Revel will want them back for the next five months, and will gladly offer them loss rebates.
Maybe you don't understand the promo, either.
Quote: Mission146Quit worrying, they can't withdraw or bait-and-switch with this one, the publicity would be devastatingly bad. The casino is trying to recover right now, and get some of the gamblers that they should have had a good chance of getting to begin with, but screwed up.
Quote: TexasOilManPeteThere's a name in Texas for people like him, a name usually reserved for illegal immigrants and democrats, and I won't be repeating it in polite company.
Banned, Multiple Accounts, permanent.
Quote: JojoHmmm....
Well, it was still horrible pub for them!
Quote: FeanorThe Wizard definitely helped a lot of people on Mohegan Sun. Firstly, a lot of people didn't know about it til the thread here. Sure, the casino could have read it and shut it down, but they didn't. But also, the Wizard posted the correct changes in basic strategy to take advantage if triple down. Many additional plays became basic strategy triple downs when they were not basic strategy doubles. We could have simmed that ourselves I guess, but it was going to take some time and effort.
So, again, I refuse to bash the Wizard. Mistakes may have been made this time, but he is overall a force for good.
I appreciate this post and some other posts here.
In my opinion, the difference between Revel and Mohegan Sun is that Mohegan Sun is an establishment that does business in such a way that they believe in the importance in doing what they say they are going to do, absent other consequences. I can just imagine a suit getting ready for work that morning and looking in the mirror with a sideways smirk on his face saying, "We are going to get killed today!"
I find it hard to imagine anyone blaming WoV for this fiasco, because you still have a business not doing what it already said it would do. Let's look at this in the light of a comparable promotion, but a different industry.
Imagine if a grocery store had a sale by which you would buy one package of chicken breasts and you would get a coupon for $5.00 of your next purchase of chicken breast. However, the store made a mistake because they also advertised a sale on chicken breast for the same period making it $4.99 a package. Now, the smart shopper could go in and buy whatever the limit is on the sale, get $5.00 coupons for every one bought, run back through the store and grab more chicken breasts, and effectively get two packs for $4.98. I can assure you that is not profitable for the store.
Can you imagine the backlash against the store if they pulled one offer or the other? They wouldn't, though. They'll know that they have increased customer loyalty with the people who already shop there and may have gotten some new or infrequent shoppers to check them out. You hope that the promotion pays off after the fact, even though someone missed the fact that it would cost money to allow it to go ahead as advertised.
This isn't about AP's or a message board, it's about a bad business. It's not about Wizard publishing mathematical truths, but about the Revel's lies.
Yes, conceded. I was 100% wrong.
Quote: Mission146Can you imagine the backlash against the store if they pulled one offer or the other? They wouldn't, though.
They might not.
Are you familiar with the colossal blunder Pepsi committed in the Philippines in the 90s? Of course, they'd have gone broke if they'd honored their promises, but so might a small grocery store in your example.
Quote: jonThe person behind this promo is Randy Fine (of the Fine Point Group). I don't know him, but have heard his name many times and always in a very positive light. The guy is apparently very smart (Harvard educated). So, even though the promo seems mysterious to some of us, I can only assume that they have already done all the math and know what they are doing.
OK.
(After all,he is HARVARD educated).
Quote: BhappyRandy Fine is a very intelligent person. Only a moron would not think of the potential liability of high denomination VP machines.
When it comes to gambling related things Some of the smartest people have NO clue its almost like gambling or things related like promotion developing have some mysterious power to make people stupid. I have seen some very smart educated guys come up with all kinds of Waco theories and creative math for games like roulette. And i'm not talking clocking or biases. Where some guys with very little education are out making tons of money. It's both an art and a science even some smart guys who know all the proper numbers and games can't make a single dime.Quote: JojoOK.
(After all,he is HARVARD educated).
Quote: Jojo(After all,he is HARVARD educated).
At one time, I worked with a group of people which included one who was Yale undergrad and Harvard grad. She was, by far, the least competent in the group.
Quote: AxelWolfWhen it comes to gambling related things Some of the smartest people have NO clue its almost like gambling or things related like promotion developing have some mysterious power to make people stupid. I have seen some very smart educated guys come up with all kinds of Waco theories and creative math for games like roulette. And i'm not talking clocking or biases. Where some guys with very little education are out making tons of money. It's both an art and a science even some smart guys who know all the proper numbers and games can't make a single dime.
That is true, all management/sales/ads many other 'soft' abilities are part art and part science. But, it seems that the promo is working fine for most players, except for a very small subset of players (didn't you say the LIST had 30-40 names?)
Quote: BhappyAgain, Randy Fine is not a moron. He did not create this promotion on a whim. He certainly has resources to perform similar analysis, and eliminate weak points. Of course it was Revel's money, but he had to put his reputation (and future income) on line for this promotion to be either revenue neutral or make money off it.
Bhappy once again weighing in on Randy Fine's:
a) Great intelligence
b) The certainty that he knew what he was doing (which means subsequent to the above post that all of the day by day changes to the promotion were obviously planned far in advance)
Quote: kewljI have heard two different reports from folks at the scene this morning. One said that certain machines had been taken off line, shut down, placed out of order. A second said they had gone even further, removing certain machines from the floor altogether that had been on the floor only yesterday. I can't wait to hear more reports on this fiasco.
If this behavior was done in the retail world it would be called the 'classic' bait and switch, which is illegal. (yet still done).
But...Randy Fine is Harvard educated...
Just look at all the posts in this thread from people who are positive everything was planned this way.
Quote: Mission146
This isn't about AP's or a message board, it's about a bad business. It's not about Wizard publishing mathematical truths, but about the Revel's lies.
+1
I still would be interested in seeing some calculations on how much the casino can profit by giving free play against losses? Sorry folks, I can't consider "free play" as a rebate. I could consider it to be a consolation prize -- but not a rebate.
When I buy a new car, I get a $500 check in the mail, and that's a rebate.
When I buy a set of tires, I get a $25 Visa card, and that's a rebate.
But Free Play? I have to play that "free play" and hope I get lucky with it. And from what has been desciribed here, Revel doesn't have any "positive expectation games" so how much do I stand to lose with each free play dollar I bet?
And what about the players who can't redeem the free play? Figure that into Revel's bottom line.
See if my primitive math makes sense:
A player loses $10,000 during a weekend and gets 5% of that a week ($500) over the next 20 weeks.
Question: how many of those weekly rebates will he take advantage of?
Question: after this $10,000 player goes through the $500 free play, how much more might he pull out of his wallet "while he is there"??
Question: if the $500 is run through a 98% game one time, how much could the player "walk with"? $490 maybe?
Suppose Revel estimates that only half of the free play is redeemed? For our "$10,000 player" that would mean ten return visits with $500 of free play at each visit.
Expected return on that $500 of free play for 10 visits = $4900
Original loss = $10,000
Revel profit = $5100
Now, add in that our $10,000 player doesn't want to play just $500 of free play on each return visit. How much cash out of his own pocket will our "$10.000 player" play?
Will he play an additional $500 each visit?
Will he play an additional $1000 each visit?
Somehow I think Revel is going to make a lot of money out of this whole thing when all is said and done.
And why did Revel remove certain high limit video poker games with better pay tables from the promotion period?
1. For the same reason that some casinos offer 3,4,5 times odds at craps while others offer 10x or 100x odds -- they don't want the variance.
2. Or, perhaps they feel the promotion alone is enough to bring players in and they don't have to offer "better games."
And for those players who had their "cards pulled" and feel it was done unjustly and they did nothing wrong -- you should get a lawyer and you should take action. That is bait and switch at its worst.
Then there is this thread that shows in detail to everyone (pros, APers, wannabes, casino mgmt., etc.) how much of a positive play Revel's promo was.
In this thread you also have a video of Colin Jones, an invitee to this year's Bj Ball, being backed off a table in WA off while still losing. Point being he was allowed to lose, but not to win back to even, after being identified.
Then there is a lot of conjecture about Revel's timeline and decision to eliminate some of the players and choices to play.
Besides the databases casinos already have regarding players, they probably do have other intelligence. They have what little money it would take to buy more intelligence.
Quote: onenickelmiracleI can't understand why you're so infatuated with this place Bhappy. Can you explain your love for an inanimate object? Have you been hypnotized or brainwashed by their employees...
You obviously missed this post of Bhappy's:
"BTW I am a simpleton...".
Now that any analysis of $125 hands is irrelevant for this promotion, I have a what-if request for someone with an aptitude for simulation...
How would Royal Aces fare in comparison? How about Pick 'Em Nines? Joker 2P? Double Joker?
I am not looking for analysis on the full pay versions. I have chosen the games above, as they have a very distinct attribute. That they all have a probability of loss between 60% and 70% distinguishes them from the field.
Even though DDB has a much higher variance than JOB, the higher return of JOB seemed to allow it to (slightly) beat out DDB in the race. Added: Perhaps this is due to the ratio of rebate to bet size ($100K vs. $125?) I estimate that the probability of loss of a game is a more important metric than variance or return. If we could find one of the games above with a lower return than FP JOB and see how it compares, I think we might find something of interest for future promotions like this one. If need be, we could use TDB 9/7 for a control, as it has a comparable return and probability of loss as and a much greater variance than FP JOB.
Quote: JojoBhappy once again weighing in on Randy Fine's:
a) Great intelligence
b) The certainty that he knew what he was doing (which means subsequent to the above post that all of the day by day changes to the promotion were obviously planned far in advance)
Probably more intelligence than many on this board. This may translate in to him earning more than many. This also may explain, why Randy Fine is not chasing threads to get his kicks. That also may explain why he is not a vulture player.
Of course he is Harvard Graduate.
Quote: WizardThanks for the compliment on my work. I admit that many here are much more experienced APs than myself. I've never said I was a world-class AP.
While your opinion is duly noted, mine is still that I helped more people beat the Mohegan Sun and my input on Revel didn't make much difference, as that promotion had abject disaster written all over it. Nevertheless, maybe I'll do things differently next time.
Thank you. I'm glad you appreciate that I'm not trying to bash you. For you to give consideration to a different approach next time is all I could ask for.
I think you may underestimate your own influence. You pointed out earlier that this is a small forum, while millions of people see Revel's advertisements. This is true. But how many people are prepared to fully exploit a promotion like this? One in a hundred thousand? Probably less? A substantial fraction of those people follow your work, or read vpfree where Dancer posted, or know about the radio show. The selectiveness of the audience goes a long way to nullify the raw numerical difference.
If you asked me which would have more influence on the future of a highly profitable high-stakes promotion, a mention in TV advertisements seen by millions or a extensive discussion and analysis on your forums (plus a mention on vpfree), I'd probably go with the latter. It'd be close.
I do think it's more likely than not that the Revel promotion would have turned into a disaster regardless of your actions... but then, I thought the same about Mohegan Sun :)
Quote: SanchoPanzaThat is precisely what the AP's and their partisans express here regularly. The effort is to control and limit strictly the "entitlement" to a very small self-appointed "elite" group. And no one else should even discuss it, despite the fact that it is widely broadcast, even with an aspect of national reach.
Sancho, I am not trying to prevent other people from learning or profiting. If you look through my previous posts, here or on vpfree, you'll find that I've often offered advice or analysis to others. In the casinos, if other players ask me for advice, I answer honestly. Hell, during the Mohegan Sun promo I was flashing signals to a stranger across the table to tell him when to triple down, so he wouldn't have to consult his strategy chart and possibly draw heat.
When there is truly plenty of free pie to go around, I will cheerfully help advertise the fact. I like pie, and I like it when other people get pie, too! But when there is only some pie, and a huge rush of customers might freak out the pie shop and induce them to shut their doors for the day and then NO ONE gets pie... then yes, I think it is more prudent to not spread the news around too much. I don't think Wizard and I even disagree on this general principle, only on the assessment of this particular situation. And perhaps on the advisability of stretching pie metaphors far past the breaking point. :)
Quote: rainmanLet it go man :) Wizard does gaming math, Some people requested he do some for the revel promo and he did. He is not on team AP.
Wizard would be completely within his rights to say that. He doesn't owe anything to me, or to any other player.
But he didn't. He said he was trying to maximize the total amount that players won from the promo. I think a different approach would have been more successful in accomplishing his stated goal. That's all.
Quote: FeanorThe Wizard definitely helped a lot of people on Mohegan Sun. Firstly, a lot of people didn't know about it til the thread here. Sure, the casino could have read it and shut it down, but they didn't. But also, the Wizard posted the correct changes in basic strategy to take advantage if triple down. Many additional plays became basic strategy triple downs when they were not basic strategy doubles. We could have simmed that ourselves I guess, but it was going to take some time and effort.
We did compute it ourselves. I didn't share my results with you because they were the same as Wizard's, which you already had. :P
Quote:So, again, I refuse to bash the Wizard. Mistakes may have been made this time, but he is overall a force for good.
Agreed.
| Goal | Avg win | Prob success |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 36.54 | 62.84% |
| 20 | 44.70 | 53.51% |
| 30 | 49.36 | 47.55% |
| 40 | 52.50 | 43.01% |
| 50 | 54.78 | 39.19% |
| 60 | 56.35 | 36.08% |
| 70 | 57.46 | 33.42% |
| 80 | 58.25 | 30.98% |
| 90 | 58.76 | 28.80% |
| 100 | 59.04 | 26.83% |
| 110 | 59.13 | 25.10% |
| 120 | 59.05 | 23.56% |
| 130 | 58.85 | 22.15% |
| 140 | 58.55 | 20.83% |
| 150 | 58.14 | 19.58% |
| 160 | 57.64 | 18.38% |
| 170 | 57.11 | 17.32% |
| 180 | 56.54 | 16.40% |
| 190 | 55.97 | 15.58% |
| 200 | 55.37 | 14.83% |
So, the maximum goal is 110 units with an average win of 59.13 units. At $200 a bet that is an expected win of $11,826.
I don't know if they actually have Double Diamond there, but I think this table would work fairly well for any single-line three-reel game. For practical purposes, not wanting to actually invoke the rebate 20 times, I think a goal of 50 units is enough.
Quote: WizardI don't know if they actually have Double Diamond there, but I think this table would work fairly well for any single-line three-reel game.
Can a casino simply change the par sheet (specifically symbols weights) on a slot machine which would result in the same return (e.g., 85%) but lower volatility? I wouldn't trust anything Revel does at this point. At least with VP you know what you are getting.
http://media.revelresorts.com/press-release/102/
This was not some secret machine that pays out too many points, some massive +EV progressive, or a dealer that exposes their cards, this was a widely advertised and known promotion. Some of you seem to think it was some secret that only you had the right to know about which is ridiculous. Others are free to discuss it just as you are. No discussion in this forum caused people to pull players cards on Ultimate X machines or end up on some list of excluded players.
Thank you to Mike and everyone else that keep the ideas flowing in this forum.
Quote: jonCan a casino simply change the par sheet (specifically symbols weights) on a slot machine which would result in the same return (e.g., 85%) but lower volatility?
No. For any given game the casino will have several EPROM chips, each associated with a particular return. The variance will be about the same on each one. In the case of Double Diamond, the standard deviation is 6.27.
Quote: PokeraddictThank you to Mike and everyone else that keep the ideas flowing in this forum.
Thanks! I appreciate the vote of confidence.
Quote: PokeraddictPeople blaming Wizard and this forum for the promotional issues are way out of line. Revel sent out a PR to many media outlets including to me. You can see it here:
This was not some secret machine that pays out too many points, some massive +EV progressive, or a dealer that exposes their cards, this was a widely advertised and known promotion. Some of you seem to think it was some secret that only you had the right to know about which is ridiculous. Others are free to discuss it just as you are. No discussion in this forum caused people to pull players cards on Ultimate X machines or end up on some list of excluded players.
Thank you to Mike and everyone else that keep the ideas flowing in this forum.
This press release is dated June 20.
Much of this discussion is about events after June 20.
Do you think the Revel had a list of 40 or so players whose cards and play were to be restricted, should they arrive? Do you think that happened? Do you think Revel was deliberately misleading in telling an Admin here that the games on the floor were not going to change?
I honestly don't understand the point being made by posting a June 20 press release in light of the allegations that have followed, with all respect.
And unfortunately for players, I think the Revel acted legally even if the worst allegations are true.
Quote: WizardSo, the maximum goal is 110 units with an average win of 59.13 units. At $200 a bet that is an expected win of $11,826.
I don't know if they actually have Double Diamond there, but I think this table would work fairly well for any single-line three-reel game. For practical purposes, not wanting to actually invoke the rebate 20 times, I think a goal of 50 units is enough.
Thank you for the slot analysis. I believe for the most part that you are correct - you won't be far off from most 3-reel games that have a single payline with respect to the lowest return setting and variance. Not a bad idea to adjust your goal according to how easy or difficult it would be to collect your freeplay in the case that you lose.
Wizard, I am curious about your method and that of any of the others who run simulations. Do you write a program? If so, what programming language do you use and why? If not, do you utilize some sort of packaged software? Do any of the VP analyzer packages out there include a simulator? If so, does it lend itself to this type of analysis or does it provide some different functionality?
I have learned a programming language or two, and I have written a fairly simple simulation in the distant past. This was quite some time ago, and the sim was for a course on Queuing Theory, so not very similar. I had already learned Pascal at the time, but we were required to use Matlab for the sim. Fortunately, the syntax between the two was fairly close, and the project was a simple one to demonstrate the power of the software that we would be using for the course. At this point, I would be quite rusty at programming, and I no longer have access to any of the software that was available to me when I was a student. I was hoping someone might be interested in analyzing certain VP games WRT this promotion as a comparison to the JOB and DDB already done. Any takers? If so, please see my previous post, which I have bumped a couple of times.
Quote: WizardNo. For any given game the casino will have several EPROM chips, each associated with a particular return.
True! For a many games, I would expect to see about half a dozen PAR Sheets (and corresponding chip) for each machine type. Machine types would include the following:
3-reel, 1-line, 1 coin multiplier
3-reel, 1-line, 2 coin multiplier
3-reel, 1-line, 3 coin multiplier
3-reel, 1-line, 4 coin multiplier
3-reel, 1-line, 5 coin multiplier
3-reel, 1-line, 6 coin multiplier
3-reel, 1-line, 10 coin multiplier
3-reel, 1-line, 2 coin buy-a-pay
3-reel, 1-line, 3 coin buy-a-pay
3-reel, 1-line, 4 coin buy-a-pay
3-reel, 3-line
3-reel, 5-line
3-reel, 9-line
...and more combinations for 4-reel and 5-reel versions. Each type would likely have returns in the range from low- to mid- 80's to mid- to high- 90's.
As it turns out, for Double Diamond 3-reel 1-line 2-coin multiplier, I have 22 different PAR sheets with returns ranging from 75.0090% to 98.0170%, all but 3 of which are above 90%. All but 5 show a top jackpot of 1600 coin. The others are 1000, 1199, 32000, 62000, 400000-coin, respectively.
| Goal | Avg win | Prob success |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | 75.20 | 35.43% |
| 110 | 76.13 | 33.50% |
| 120 | 76.82 | 31.76% |
| 130 | 77.31 | 30.15% |
| 140 | 77.63 | 28.64% |
| 150 | 77.82 | 27.22% |
| 160 | 77.88 | 25.85% |
| 170 | 77.81 | 24.60% |
| 180 | 77.65 | 23.47% |
| 190 | 77.42 | 22.44% |
| 200 | 77.12 | 21.50% |
| 210 | 76.77 | 20.62% |
| 220 | 76.37 | 19.81% |
| 230 | 75.92 | 19.05% |
| 240 | 75.43 | 18.33% |
| 250 | 74.90 | 17.65% |
| 260 | 74.34 | 17.01% |
| 270 | 73.76 | 16.40% |
| 280 | 73.15 | 15.82% |
| 290 | 72.50 | 15.26% |
| 300 | 71.84 | 14.72% |
So, the optimal goal is 160 units with an expected win of 77.88 units. At $200 a bet that is an expected win of $15,576.
Stay tuned for the 95% and 98% games.
Quote: camaplI have 22 different PAR sheets with returns ranging from 75.0090% to 98.0170%, all but 3 of which are above 90%.
75.009%?!?!?! FOR SHAME, IGT!!! Nevada really should change their minimum payout law to fall in line with the virtually nationwide accepted 80% minimum. To out do that, newer states are usually demanding 85%+.
Quote: Wizard
So, the optimal goal is 160 units with an expected win of 77.88 units. At $200 a bet that is an expected win of $15,576.
Stay tuned for 95% and 98% games.
Is this is before playing through the freeplay if you fail to reach the win goal? Because if you were forced to play the same machine for the freeplay, then the actual realized win would be a lot lower. Obviously switching to quarter video poker and the like for the freeplay is the better move.
Quote: AbeFrohmanCurrent preparation: Teams of investors and bankrolled players assembling, millions of USD and credit lines, and attorneys on stand by in case of casino mischief.
Concurrent: Revel in-house legal and consultants running "what-if" scenarios and planning "out" strategies. These include background checks on all participants and associates to ferret out AP connections that would provide cover for non-payout of wins and withholding of rebates. Preparation of restrictive and bizarre rule tightening of ease of rebate acquisition. Example: must be at least 48 hours between obtaining weekly rebates. Video poker not allowed. Possibly excluding or removing $25 VP from HL before July 1st.
This could get interesting.
Wow you were right on the money on 6/25. I'll give you credit by assuming VP not allowed to mean the redemption of the loss rebate FP.
This is the biggest thing you mentioned IMO and it has to be somewhat the way it goes to reduce their risk for the second part of the offer.
Of course all this does it makes it hard for the average player, but not for someone determined to get it all back.Quote: AbeFrohmanPreparation of restrictive and bizarre rule tightening of ease of rebate acquisition. Example: must be at least 48 hours between obtaining weekly rebates.
Quote: WizardNo. For any given game the casino will have several EPROM chips, each associated with a particular return. The variance will be about the same on each one. In the case of Double Diamond, the standard deviation is 6.27.
Wizard, I know you are a gaming expert. However, it seems that days of EPROM chips are gone. I have read numerous places that all the PAR sheets are pre-loaded on new machines. During set up phase they just pick one. A casino with 3,000-4,000 machines would have hell of a time securely storing all those chips.
