2 keys - 50/50 chance?

Ok, so I have 2 keys that look exactly the same at work. They are company issued, secure keys. I'm not allowed to alter them in any way. One opens my office door and the other opens the door to the Admin Building.

I've had these keys for about 4 years. A smart math guy would say I have a 50/50 chance to select the correct key to open my office door each time I pull the keys out of my pocket. WRONG! I would say I hit it about 20% of the time. Please explain this. This is not over a short period of time. This is 5 - 10 times a day, 5 days a week for 4 years.

Does this mean if I play a casino game where the odds are against me that I'm "due" to win since I lose so much in a 50/50 game?

Is it possible some sort of curse has been placed on me and I'm unaware of it?

Is the door lock showing some sort of key control or influencing?

Please help. This is very frustrating!

ZCore13

While some of those questions are begging for a sarcastic or tongue-in-cheek answer, in all seriousness there are a number of real factors that could explain the 20% figure.

1st is a selective memory, or confirmation bias, where the true number is not actually 20%, just feels that way because you remember more clearly or more recently the failures.

Another possibility is that if the keys are on the same key chain, they are positioned in such a way that you naturally reach for the wrong key more often, or it is easier to grab.

If they are on different key chains, you could be experiencing a buttered toast phenomenon, where each time you replace the keys, the good one ends up on top. When you go home, you set the keys down. Then you pick them up in the morning, and through this process, the bad key ends could up on top in your pocket. This would makes it easier to grab randomly, leading to the 20% figure.

you dont pay attention to the times you are correct. you just notice the times when you are wrong.


thats why all i see is terrible drivers, because thats all i notice.



another thing to factor in is, what else is on the key chain? if its just the 2 keys then your 20% must be incorrect, if its a bunch of keys and you keep picking the same one 80% of the time then maybe so.

Quote: Zcore13

A smart math guy would say I have a 50/50 chance to select the correct key to open my office door each time I pull the keys out of my pocket. WRONG! I would say I hit it about 20% of the time. Please explain this.

If your result (20%) were true, why won't you always use the "other" key instead ? You would magically have a success rate of 80%. Hence your result cannot be true. The only consistent result is 50%.


If you may not alter the keys itself: just put an easily identifyable key beneath your office key in the keyring. If you want to use the office key, choose the one beneath your easy key.

Quote: dwheatley

Another possibility is that if the keys are on the same key chain, they are positioned in such a way that you naturally reach for the wrong key more often, or it is easier to grab.

I was gonna say something similar...

I have a similar situation. I have a bunch of shows saved on hard drives and I can't read them from my bed, so I just have to randomly click on season/episode. Out of eight seasons and 20 episodes each, I find myself clicking the same season about a quarter of the time and quite often the same episode. It just happens, even if I plan on it not happening. This happens with multiple shows and over about a decade now.

I agree, it's probably the way the keys are positioned.

Quote: dwheatley

Another possibility is that if the keys are on the same key chain, they are positioned in such a way that you naturally reach for the wrong key more often, or it is easier to grab.

My key chain, along with my truck key, has my personal house key, as well keys to rental properties and storage units. My personal house key is next to my truck key, and a rental property key is on the other side of the truck key. For a long time, I noticed that when I would try to unlock my door, I would be using the wrong key, ie, the rental property key. I finally switched the two keys in their placement, and now I always grab my house key when I get home. I figure it must have to do with the way the key chain 'falls' into my hand upon removing the truck key from my vehicle.

Quote: ahiromu

I find myself clicking the same season about a quarter of the time and quite often the same episode.

I do not have any shows on DVD or saved anywhere. However, on lazy days, if I flipped through channels on broadcast/cable tv, I would often find myself landing on an episode of Criminal Minds. The same episode. Confirmation Bias will make me say that it's the only episode of that show I've ever seen, but I'm sure that's not true. It does seem that a disproportionate number of times, it was that particular episode that was on the air.