chance
April 24th, 2013 at 10:00:27 AM
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Would flipping 200 heads in a row be the same chance as flipping as flipping 1 head? Fair coin of course.
Each day is better than the next
April 24th, 2013 at 10:05:08 AM
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The question is worded badly.
I think you're asking: after 200 heads in a row, is the chance of the next flip being heads still 50%?
The answer is "Yes". Of course, I'd wanna look at the coin, but yeah, it's still 50% if it's a fair coin.
Put simply, past results have no affect on future outcomes.
I think you're asking: after 200 heads in a row, is the chance of the next flip being heads still 50%?
The answer is "Yes". Of course, I'd wanna look at the coin, but yeah, it's still 50% if it's a fair coin.
Put simply, past results have no affect on future outcomes.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
April 24th, 2013 at 10:13:30 AM
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"be the same chance"Quote: treetopbuddyWould flipping 200 heads in a row be the same chance as flipping as flipping 1 head? Fair coin of course.
depends on what is is.
Flip a fair coin one time.
You gots only ONE chance to flip a head.
Flip a fair coin 200 times in a row
You only got ONE chance of flipping it heads every time.
One chance to win for each event.
the probability may be different, still one chance to hit your winning event
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
April 24th, 2013 at 10:16:36 AM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearThe question is worded badly.
I think you're asking: after 200 heads in a row, is the chance of the next flip being heads still 50%?
The answer is "Yes". Of course, I'd wanna look at the coin, but yeah, it's still 50% if it's a fair coin.
Put simply, past results have no affect on future outcomes.
Yes, question was worded poorly.......my grammar is not the best. So, as you say "past results have no effect on future outcomes". You are then saying it's just as conceivable to flip the coin and get 200 heads in a row as it is to get just 1 head?
Each day is better than the next
April 24th, 2013 at 10:41:24 AM
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Quote: treetopbuddyYes, question was worded poorly.......my grammar is not the best. So, as you say "past results have no effect on future outcomes". You are then saying it's just as conceivable to flip the coin and get 200 heads in a row as it is to get just 1 head?
No, he's saying that if you flipped Heads 199 times in a row already, then it is just as conceivable that you will flip it a 200th time as opposed to flipping tails for the first time. That has to do with the independence of past results to future outcomes.
Now, each individual flip is independent, but if you haven't flipped at all yet, then I would need 200 independent events to go a certain way as opposed to just one, which has a probability of (.5)^200 = Almost Impossible
Now, if you are talking about a 200th flip of Heads after 199 have already happened, then this:
(.5)^199 = Almost Impossible, but Slightly less Almost Impossible than (.5)^200 has already happened, and you just need this:
(.5)^1
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
April 24th, 2013 at 10:57:28 AM
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Yes, it's always 50/50 on any coin toss that's elementary.....sooooo if it's always 50/50 then 200 heads in a row is just as conceivable as 1? Yes?
Each day is better than the next
April 24th, 2013 at 11:00:59 AM
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Quote: treetopbuddyYes, it's always 50/50 on any coin toss that's elementary.....sooooo if it's always 50/50 then 200 heads in a row is just as conceivable as 1? Yes?
The chance of 200 in a row is .5^200, the chance of 1 is .5^1.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
April 24th, 2013 at 11:01:14 AM
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Yeah, what Mission said is what I meant.
Frankly, I'd be looking at the coin a lot sooner than after 200 heads in a row!Quote: DJTeddyBearOf course, I'd wanna look at the coin, but yeah, it's still 50% if it's a fair coin. .
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
April 24th, 2013 at 11:03:30 AM
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No.Quote: treetopbuddyYes, it's always 50/50 on any coin toss that's elementary.....sooooo if it's always 50/50 then 200 heads in a row is just as conceivable as 1? Yes?
Th chance of a 200th head AFTER 199 heads is 50%. The chance of the NEXT 200 flips ALL being heads is .5^200
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
April 24th, 2013 at 11:09:16 AM
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Hmmmm.... Correction. A wording issue again.
"Conceivable" ? Sure.
"Probable" ? No.
"Conceivable" ? Sure.
"Probable" ? No.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
April 24th, 2013 at 11:32:55 AM
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Quote: treetopbuddyYes, it's always 50/50 on any coin toss that's elementary.....sooooo if it's always 50/50 then 200 heads in a row is just as conceivable as 1? Yes?
NO. Yes the odds of a head in a single toss are 50/50....DJ and Mission are also correct that past results do not affect future outcomes, so that the odds of the 200th flip are also 50%. But for that to occur the first 199 flips must be heads (highly unlikely). Consider that for a coin to come up head 200 times in a row. You have to have it be heads every time. So 1st flip Heads...odds 50%...second flip Heads 50% of the ALREADY FLIPPED COINS THAT CAME UP HEADS the first time so 25%; third flip 50% of the 25% or 12.5%...(.50x.50x.50 =.125 get it?)...repeat this as much as you'd like.
Don't confuse individual events with a series of events. So if you walk by the Roulette Table and it's been red 199 times in a row. BLACK IS NOT DUE!!
Having said all that; in the unlikely event I saw a roulette table hit Red 199 times in a row...I'd own the casino.
April 24th, 2013 at 11:40:35 AM
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Quote: vendman1
Don't confuse individual events with a series of events.
So, could it be said Roulette, for example could be viewed as a series of events vs. individual events?Each day is better than the next
April 24th, 2013 at 11:41:50 AM
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So, could it be said that Roulette, for example could be viewed as a series of events vs. individual events?
Each day is better than the next
April 24th, 2013 at 12:01:26 PM
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Quote: treetopbuddySo, could it be said that Roulette, for example could be viewed as a series of events vs. individual events?
Sure. But the events in that series have no impact on each other.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
April 24th, 2013 at 12:20:29 PM
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1 head in a row is going to happen 50% of the time
200 heads in a row wont ever happen .5^200, not sure of exact answer but it looks something like this 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%
(it will actually be quite a few more zeros that what i showed)
100 heads in a row is around e-30 (30 zeros)
but if you are asking what do i think the probability of the next flip being heads or tails? 50/50 man, always
200 heads in a row wont ever happen .5^200, not sure of exact answer but it looks something like this 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%
(it will actually be quite a few more zeros that what i showed)
100 heads in a row is around e-30 (30 zeros)
but if you are asking what do i think the probability of the next flip being heads or tails? 50/50 man, always
April 24th, 2013 at 12:57:24 PM
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you guys are being trolled
April 24th, 2013 at 12:58:54 PM
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Quote: gts4everyou guys are being trolled
F***Y** numb nuts
Each day is better than the next
April 24th, 2013 at 3:27:30 PM
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Quote: treetopbuddyF***Y** numb nuts
And there it is.
A post worthy of nomination for a suspension.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
April 24th, 2013 at 3:53:35 PM
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Here is an engineering trick.Quote: nezbit200 heads in a row wont ever happen .5^200, not sure of exact answer
2^10 = 10^3 (approximately -- to 2 digit accuracy, 1000 vs. 1024). This is very useful for making approximations of the number of digits in a power of 2.
So, in this case, 2^200 = (2^10)^20 = (10^3)^20 = 10^60, so there are about 60 digits. In other words, 200*(3/10) = 60.
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
April 24th, 2013 at 5:24:00 PM
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Quote: treetopbuddySo, could it be said that Roulette, for example could be viewed as a series of events vs. individual events?
You can view it however you want, but the casino only accepts bets on individual events. There is no way to book a wager that the next 200 spins will be red, or on any other series of bets, in a standard roulette game.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
April 25th, 2013 at 4:12:05 AM
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Game idea! Roulette streak!!! Copyright Boymimbo TM.
5 red or blacks in a row pays 35.(normally pays 32). HA 11.764% on double zero.
5 red or blacks in a row pays 35.(normally pays 32). HA 11.764% on double zero.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
April 25th, 2013 at 9:12:41 AM
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Quote: boymimboGame idea! Roulette streak!!! Copyright Boymimbo TM.
5 red or blacks in a row pays 35.(normally pays 32). HA 11.764% on double zero.
:+) 36 to 1 gets 11.764%. 35 to 1 is 14.489%
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
