I think you're asking: after 200 heads in a row, is the chance of the next flip being heads still 50%?

The answer is "Yes". Of course, I'd wanna look at the coin, but yeah, it's still 50% if it's a fair coin.

Put simply, past results have no affect on future outcomes.

"be the same chance"Quote:treetopbuddyWould flipping 200 heads in a row be the same chance as flipping as flipping 1 head? Fair coin of course.

depends on what is is.

Flip a fair coin one time.

You gots only ONE chance to flip a head.

Flip a fair coin 200 times in a row

You only got ONE chance of flipping it heads every time.

One chance to win for each event.

the probability may be different, still one chance to hit your winning event

Quote:DJTeddyBearThe question is worded badly.

I think you're asking: after 200 heads in a row, is the chance of the next flip being heads still 50%?

The answer is "Yes". Of course, I'd wanna look at the coin, but yeah, it's still 50% if it's a fair coin.

Put simply, past results have no affect on future outcomes.

Yes, question was worded poorly.......my grammar is not the best. So, as you say "past results have no effect on future outcomes". You are then saying it's just as conceivable to flip the coin and get 200 heads in a row as it is to get just 1 head?

Quote:treetopbuddyYes, question was worded poorly.......my grammar is not the best. So, as you say "past results have no effect on future outcomes". You are then saying it's just as conceivable to flip the coin and get 200 heads in a row as it is to get just 1 head?

No, he's saying that if you flipped Heads 199 times in a row already, then it is just as conceivable that you will flip it a 200th time as opposed to flipping tails for the first time. That has to do with the independence of past results to future outcomes.

Now, each individual flip is independent, but if you haven't flipped at all yet, then I would need 200 independent events to go a certain way as opposed to just one, which has a probability of (.5)^200 = Almost Impossible

Now, if you are talking about a 200th flip of Heads after 199 have already happened, then this:

(.5)^199 = Almost Impossible, but Slightly less Almost Impossible than (.5)^200 has already happened, and you just need this:

(.5)^1

Quote:treetopbuddyYes, it's always 50/50 on any coin toss that's elementary.....sooooo if it's always 50/50 then 200 heads in a row is just as conceivable as 1? Yes?

The chance of 200 in a row is .5^200, the chance of 1 is .5^1.

Frankly, I'd be looking at the coin a lot sooner than after 200 heads in a row!Quote:DJTeddyBearOf course, I'd wanna look at the coin, but yeah, it's still 50% if it's a fair coin. .

No.Quote:treetopbuddyYes, it's always 50/50 on any coin toss that's elementary.....sooooo if it's always 50/50 then 200 heads in a row is just as conceivable as 1? Yes?

Th chance of a 200th head AFTER 199 heads is 50%. The chance of the NEXT 200 flips ALL being heads is .5^200

"Conceivable" ? Sure.

"Probable" ? No.