treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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April 24th, 2013 at 10:00:27 AM permalink
Would flipping 200 heads in a row be the same chance as flipping as flipping 1 head? Fair coin of course.
Each day is better than the next
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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April 24th, 2013 at 10:05:08 AM permalink
The question is worded badly.

I think you're asking: after 200 heads in a row, is the chance of the next flip being heads still 50%?

The answer is "Yes". Of course, I'd wanna look at the coin, but yeah, it's still 50% if it's a fair coin.

Put simply, past results have no affect on future outcomes.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
7craps
7craps
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April 24th, 2013 at 10:13:30 AM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Would flipping 200 heads in a row be the same chance as flipping as flipping 1 head? Fair coin of course.

"be the same chance"
depends on what is is.

Flip a fair coin one time.
You gots only ONE chance to flip a head.

Flip a fair coin 200 times in a row
You only got ONE chance of flipping it heads every time.

One chance to win for each event.

the probability may be different, still one chance to hit your winning event
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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April 24th, 2013 at 10:16:36 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

The question is worded badly.

I think you're asking: after 200 heads in a row, is the chance of the next flip being heads still 50%?

The answer is "Yes". Of course, I'd wanna look at the coin, but yeah, it's still 50% if it's a fair coin.

Put simply, past results have no affect on future outcomes.



Yes, question was worded poorly.......my grammar is not the best. So, as you say "past results have no effect on future outcomes". You are then saying it's just as conceivable to flip the coin and get 200 heads in a row as it is to get just 1 head?
Each day is better than the next
Mission146
Mission146
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April 24th, 2013 at 10:41:24 AM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Yes, question was worded poorly.......my grammar is not the best. So, as you say "past results have no effect on future outcomes". You are then saying it's just as conceivable to flip the coin and get 200 heads in a row as it is to get just 1 head?



No, he's saying that if you flipped Heads 199 times in a row already, then it is just as conceivable that you will flip it a 200th time as opposed to flipping tails for the first time. That has to do with the independence of past results to future outcomes.

Now, each individual flip is independent, but if you haven't flipped at all yet, then I would need 200 independent events to go a certain way as opposed to just one, which has a probability of (.5)^200 = Almost Impossible

Now, if you are talking about a 200th flip of Heads after 199 have already happened, then this:

(.5)^199 = Almost Impossible, but Slightly less Almost Impossible than (.5)^200 has already happened, and you just need this:

(.5)^1
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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April 24th, 2013 at 10:57:28 AM permalink
Yes, it's always 50/50 on any coin toss that's elementary.....sooooo if it's always 50/50 then 200 heads in a row is just as conceivable as 1? Yes?
Each day is better than the next
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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April 24th, 2013 at 11:00:59 AM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Yes, it's always 50/50 on any coin toss that's elementary.....sooooo if it's always 50/50 then 200 heads in a row is just as conceivable as 1? Yes?



The chance of 200 in a row is .5^200, the chance of 1 is .5^1.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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April 24th, 2013 at 11:01:14 AM permalink
Yeah, what Mission said is what I meant.
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Of course, I'd wanna look at the coin, but yeah, it's still 50% if it's a fair coin. .

Frankly, I'd be looking at the coin a lot sooner than after 200 heads in a row!
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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April 24th, 2013 at 11:03:30 AM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Yes, it's always 50/50 on any coin toss that's elementary.....sooooo if it's always 50/50 then 200 heads in a row is just as conceivable as 1? Yes?

No.
Th chance of a 200th head AFTER 199 heads is 50%. The chance of the NEXT 200 flips ALL being heads is .5^200
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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April 24th, 2013 at 11:09:16 AM permalink
Hmmmm.... Correction. A wording issue again.

"Conceivable" ? Sure.

"Probable" ? No.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁

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