Walkinshaw30t
Walkinshaw30t
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April 16th, 2013 at 1:43:34 AM permalink
This may be a stupid question but is there ways of choosing outside bets in roulette or player/ banker in baccarat that will lower variance between wins and losses?
I have heard people with bet selection strategies that they claim lower variance in wins/ losses- is this possible? And if so what strategies would you reccomend?
Time will tell
Walkinshaw30t
Walkinshaw30t
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April 16th, 2013 at 1:52:28 AM permalink
Any ideas?
Time will tell
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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April 16th, 2013 at 10:08:44 AM permalink
A little impatient don't ya think? I mean, a follow up after only nine minutes! Plus some people sleep at that hour...



Yeah, you lower variance in roulette rather simply: Spread the bets around. You win more often but don't win as much. Unless I'm completely off my rocker, that's the very definition of lowering variance.
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odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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April 16th, 2013 at 10:34:30 AM permalink
In negative expectation, when you lower the variance, the casino likes it.

Go ahead and bet more numbers. As you bet more and more, you progress towards the condition of betting all 38 numbers. In that case you would hand the casino 38 units and they hand you back 35. Complete elimination of variance.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: 典hanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell! She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
MangoJ
MangoJ
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April 16th, 2013 at 11:14:12 AM permalink
Quote: Walkinshaw30t

This may be a stupid question but is there ways of choosing outside bets in roulette or player/ banker in baccarat that will lower variance between wins and losses?



Sure, bet on opposing events simultaneously. Bet Red and Black, or Odd and Even, at the same time. Unless you hit the zero, you will always push - variance will be minimized.

Minimizing variance on a negative EV game is a pretty bad idea from the players point of view. The house will love you, but that is not the answer you are looking for, right ?
FinsRule
FinsRule
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April 16th, 2013 at 11:22:52 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

In negative expectation, when you lower the variance, the casino likes it.

Go ahead and bet more numbers. As you bet more and more, you progress towards the condition of betting all 38 numbers. In that case you would hand the casino 38 units and they hand you back 35. Complete elimination of variance.



Hate to be accuracy police, but you'd be handing them 37. Or they're handing you 36. However you want to phrase it.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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April 16th, 2013 at 11:25:20 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Hate to be accuracy police, but you'd be handing them 37. Or they're handing you 36. However you want to phrase it.



you may be right, I don't play, but doesn't it depend on whether the table is zero or double zero? Since you can put it on zero & d-zero [right?] that makes up to 38?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: 典hanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell! She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
AceCrAAckers
AceCrAAckers
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April 16th, 2013 at 11:28:57 AM permalink
To lower the variance in roulette, spread the bet around and the house edge will eat away a little at a time. You won't get any big wins. The opposite is to bet the entire bankroll on one number only and if you hit, you win big but only 2.6% chance to hit it.

As for baccarat, you can lower the variance by not playing the side bets. Also, since they don't make you bet everytime you can bet only when you "feel" you know which side is going to come up. Since all casino games are negative expectation game, don't play trying to win, have some fun and leave it at that.
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gr8player
gr8player
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April 16th, 2013 at 11:40:20 AM permalink
Quote: Walkinshaw30t

This may be a stupid question but is there ways of choosing outside bets in roulette or player/ banker in baccarat that will lower variance between wins and losses?
I have heard people with bet selection strategies that they claim lower variance in wins/ losses- is this possible? And if so what strategies would you reccomend?



Hello, Walkinshaw30t. Good question, my friend.

I'm not so sure about "lowering" one's variance, especially at an "even chance" game such as Baccarat, but I do happen to believe in the "harnessing" of variance statistics.

Variance happens. It is a very natural "cause and effect" within the boundaries that are the Banker and Player selections at Baccarat. Reduction of variance? Difficult, at best.

So I utilize a form of variance "tracking" in my play:

I have 4 "preferred trending plays" that I utilize exclusively.
I have calculated, for each one of those plays, their inherent "variance statistics".
To define "statistics":
a.) Strike rates (w/l %) on each play.
b.) Distance between (read: variance) their median (read: avg) range that each play will/can stray.
c.) Longest win and loss streaks on each play.

That's it. There's my variance "formula". Does that, alone, put me ahead of their house edge? Nope. Nor will any singular approach.

But, combined with my other "Player's Edges", it surely does.

Variance exists. We all, as serious players, must come to terms with it as best we can. That is the very nature of the formula I just laid out herein.

I wish you all the very best of it.
EvenBob
EvenBob
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April 16th, 2013 at 1:10:13 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear


Yeah, you lower variance in roulette rather simply: Spread the bets around. You win more often but don't win as much. Unless I'm completely off my rocker, that's the very definition of lowering variance.



Exactly what I would have said. Sure you can lower
your variance in roulette, bet on all 100+ spaces
except a few and you'll win every time, except
for the few when you don't. It will change nothing,
the house edge will take just as much of your money
in the long run.

People make way too much out of variance. The house
always gets your money, good variance just means it
does it slower. In the end, which is all that counts, whats
the difference.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal

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