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kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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April 10th, 2013 at 11:41:22 PM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

Ah, then I stand corrected. I'll keep my mouth shut from now on before I make another mistake. (haha) :)



Relax, Beethoven. I'm not blaming you or anyone. Just saying the meaning of what was actually said has somehow 'evolved' a bit. lol Don't keep your mouth shut. Participate. Make mistakes. That's life. :)

Quote: Zcore13

To make it clear, here is what I'm saying:

A year of regular play IS the long run. Almost nobody wins, trust me.

You are believing too many stories if you think otherwise. I year of regular play is a HUGE sample size. In most cases, it is the long run.

And just a normal non AP player that plays regularly 4 hours a day, 5 days a week. 90 hands an hour since most regulars that try and win money that I've known don't play at full tables. That's 93,600 hands. At just a $5 bet with just a 1/2 percent advantage that's an expected loss of $23,400. And that's with only an average $5 bet. And that's the best table game in the house. It just doesn't happen that people win. I swear to you that I'm not lying. It does not happen.

ZCore13



Ok, again, just to clarify a few things. A year is NOT necessarily the long run and in most cases is not that huge of a sample size. I am not going to use your exact example because there are some problems with that, mainly the 93 thousand hands which I will get to in a moment, but let's just say someones expected loss was $23,400. Depending on circumstances, normal standard deviation is likely to be large enough that it covers an area that swings into positive territory as well as much further negative. That would mean that although the expected loss would be $23,400, any results ranging in this standard deviation range or even two standard deviations are not only possible, but would be considered 'normal'. So a winning year based on expected loss of 23 grand would not be as rare as you are making it out to be.

Now, 93,000 rounds of blackjack. Most professional player that I know, play far fewer than that. Most higher stakes players play only a couple days a month. Players that play lower, mid level stakes are called grinders because they play a lot and grind out a slim advantage and few grinders play anywhere near this amount. I myself have averaged 75-80 thousand rounds over the last 2 years and frankly I don't know anyone that plays as much as me. Most of my fellow AP's think I am foolish for playing so much. And this idea of 90 rounds an hour, 4 hours a day, 5 days a week.....ludicrous. Doesn't work that way. Casino industry paranoia forces short session with lots of travel and down time, not to mention scouting time.

Now, you work for a casino and compile stats and keep track of players wins and losses. As all I can say about that is based on my own win-loss statements from different casinos, you guys aren't doing such a good job. I keep extremely detailed records of my play, right down to the penny and what I am winning and what the casino has me down as usually losing, are miles apart. lol

Now, I am not going to continue to argue this with you. Think whatever you like. But I do have a question. If you are so convinced that NOBODY wins, then why the hell don't you guys lighten up and stop the backoffs, bet restrictions and shallow penetration and CSM. NOBODY is winning, so let us play. lol
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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April 11th, 2013 at 12:07:41 AM permalink
Nobody has been backed off in my Casino. The worst I can see happening is requiring a flat bet. We currently cut about 1 1/2 decks off and I'd love to take it down to 1 or even 3/4. We do not have a CSM and don't plan on getting one. We do have a maximum bet of $500, but that's a requirement by the State, not me. You are welcome at my place any time.

I can imagine some places having a hard time keeping track of win/loss. We don't have that problem. We are small enough to keep pretty good tabs. I actually used to enjoy players that would rat hole chips. It gave me a challenge during my shift. I also enjoyed watching players that thought they could count and could win.

I'm really not going to worry about and change the experience for 99.9 percent of my players for the 0.1 percent that may get a tiny advantage over me.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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April 11th, 2013 at 12:17:56 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

Nobody has been backed off in my Casino. The worst I can see happening is requiring a flat bet. We currently cut about 1 1/2 decks off and I'd love to take it down to 1 or even 3/4. We do not have a CSM and don't plan on getting one. We do have a maximum bet of $500, but that's a requirement by the State, not me. You are welcome at my place any time.

I can imagine some places having a hard time keeping track of win/loss. We don't have that problem. We are small enough to keep pretty good tabs. I actually used to enjoy players that would rat hole chips. It gave me a challenge during my shift. I also enjoyed watching players that thought they could count and could win.

I'm really not going to worry about and change the experience for 99.9 percent of my players for the 0.1 percent that may get a tiny advantage over me.

ZCore13



Well I applaud your attitude, ZCore. More of the industry should think along these lines. Zender first laid it out years ago, but few in the industry have paid any attention.

These numbers that you just posted, are much more realistic and fall in line with what I have been saying. They also contradict your earlier position that nobody ever wins. lol But that's ok, I am glad we are making progress with you. :)
Zcore13
Zcore13
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April 11th, 2013 at 12:24:10 AM permalink
Nobody wins over a full year with regular play.

Now, if you told me traveled around pouncing on promotions or that you specialized in counting side bets, that's a different story. That you could win at. But again, I think the number of people that do that successfully is so small it's barely worth discussing. If I were going to try AP play full time that's all I would focus on.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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April 11th, 2013 at 12:50:52 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

Nobody wins over a full year with regular play.



Now your boy is back-sliding! [g]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
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April 11th, 2013 at 12:54:35 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Relax, Beethoven. I'm not blaming you or anyone. Just saying the meaning of what was actually said has somehow 'evolved' a bit. lol Don't keep your mouth shut. Participate. Make mistakes. That's life. :)

Fighting BS one post at a time!
Jimbo
Jimbo
Joined: Mar 11, 2013
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April 11th, 2013 at 2:39:07 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

I can imagine some places having a hard time keeping track of win/loss. We don't have that problem. We are small enough to keep pretty good tabs. I actually used to enjoy players that would rat hole chips. It gave me a challenge during my shift.


Quote: kewlj

Now, you work for a casino and compile stats and keep track of players wins and losses. As all I can say about that is based on my own win-loss statements from different casinos, you guys aren't doing such a good job.


My experience is that some casinos do an excellent job of maintaining accurate win/loss statements and other casinos are way off.

I keep meticulous records of my play. Twelve years ago, I played one year at one particular casino that included many, many hours of higher stakes craps play (average bet in excess of $200). I was there numerous weekends for at least 2 days each and sometimes for 3-4 days at a time. I played other times during the weekday. On occasion, I saved chips from one trip to another. I would buy in with cash and/or use existing chips. My wife cashed some of my chips at times--under $3,000 and using black chips so she did not show an ID. I thought there is no way the casino could accurately track this. But at the end of the year, the casino was off by only $100.

I had a discussion with the the table games supervisor and my host at the time about this, and I learned a good deal about just how closely they followed my play. I have also observed what goes on at the craps and blackjack tables on buy-ins and color-ups--at least with my own play.

Even at a crowded craps table, if you are the only person who is using black chips (or even if there are 2-3 other players), then it should not be difficult to track the play even if you are inclined to rat-hole some of the chips. And if you using purple ($500) chips, then it is even easier for the casino to know what you have at all times. At the craps table, they are checking my chips in the rack regularly as the boxman checks his bank and entering the information in my record.

Regardless, I have received win/loss statements at other times from other casinos and I wonder where did they get the numbers, since they aren't even close to being correct.

I wonder what is the purpose of rat-holing chips anyway. Most people do not declare their gaming activities for tax purposes, so it can't be for the avoidance of taxes. A part of one's comps can be based on losses (separate from the Theo), and I suppose there may be something to be gained in greater comps if you can fool the casino into believing that your losses are more than they actually are.
teddys
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
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April 11th, 2013 at 7:11:11 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

That's because if you play table games or slots regularly there is almost no chance you will be ahead at the end of the year and more likely a month or two is the last time you'll see a positive total if you make it that far.

ZCore13

LOL! You know that is absolutely not true. You more than anyone should understand that's a function of E.V. -- playing a long term winning game you are more likely to be up at the end of the year than down. Almost everyone here realizes that -- that's why they are here. And those of us who play low E.V. games will have a better chance to be up at the end of the year than down, including extras and such.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
TIMSPEED
TIMSPEED
Joined: Aug 11, 2010
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April 11th, 2013 at 7:35:30 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

I'm really not going to worry about and change the experience for 99.9 percent of my players for the 0.1 percent that may get a tiny advantage over me.
ZCore13


Wow, really? I'll jump in the car right now and bring $100k with me...hope your bank account can handle it...since I'll playing against you
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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April 11th, 2013 at 7:48:02 AM permalink
Quote: TIMSPEED

Quote: Zcore13

I'm really not going to worry about and change the experience for 99.9 percent of my players for the 0.1 percent that may get a tiny advantage over me.
ZCore13


Wow, really? I'll jump in the car right now and bring $100k with me...hope your bank account can handle it...since I'll playing against you
u



Brilliant comment. If you've been following the thread "me" is the Casino that pays me to provide gaming to people like "you" the customer. So if you think the $100,000 cash hat you don't really have is enough to take down "my" house, drop on by.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.

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