New Roulette Betting Scheme

I was working on some simulations for Roulette when I noticed something. I was able to adjust my bankroll and betting numbers to beat the house edge of %5.263157. This makes no sense to me so I'm going to throw it out there and see what the Math people think. Here are the rules:

Start with a bankroll of $540
Betting $10 on a single number each spin and no other bets, keep betting until your bankroll is greater than $540 or you hit 120 spins (about 4 hours) or you walk away with nothing.

In the spoiler is my simulated results. I ran this many times and came up with very tight numbers. The losing percentage is %3.36 instead of the expected %5.26 or more.

What am I missing?



By the way, %70 of the time, you will walk away from the table a winner.

edit: After some more fine tuning, I got the loss down to %2.06. the rules for that are
Bankroll: $1440
Play until you a: lose it all b: reach 152 spins or if after a win, your bankroll is larger than $1440

You are missing your net$ column and total $wagered column

Your data looks right to me.
Seems to me you are not calculating the house edge
trying to mix in win/lose percentages

house edge = $net / total$wagered
I get (from your data)
$net = -$39,643,330
total$wagered = $743,223,214
he = -0.053339736 *100 = -5.3339736%

very close to -2/38

Quote: 7craps

You are missing your net$ column and total $wagered column

Your data looks right to me.
Seems to me you are not calculating the house edge
trying to mix in win/lose percentages

house edge = $net / total$wagered
I get (from your data)
$net = -$39,643,330
total$wagered = $743,223,214
he = -0.053339736 *100 = -5.3339736%

very close to -2/38

My calculation for total bet is incorrect. Thanks. Once I straightened that out, it all fell into place.

Quote: s2dbaker

edit: After some more fine tuning, I got the loss down to %2.06. the rules for that are
Bankroll: $1440
Play until you a: lose it all b: reach 152 spins or if after a win, your bankroll is larger than $1440

That 2.06% looks to be your bust rate.

What about the 5% sessions ending bankroll of $280
7.8% at $640 and so on. About 22% or so look to be losing sessions.

Good you found an error.
I do that a lot myself

Quote: 7craps

That 2.06% looks to be your bust rate.

What about the 5% sessions ending bankroll of $280
7.8% at $640 and so on. About 22% or so look to be losing sessions.

Good you found an error.
I do that a lot myself

A second set of eyes always helps.

Yes, 22% are losing and the rest are winning. My goal was to calculate an outcome most likely to produce a winner while also providing at least a few dozen spins. A friend of mine plays roulette and I wanted to show him that he could walk away a winner most of the time and still have enough spins for a fun evening of gambling. He likes to bet red and black and single numbers. I had some "data" that was pointing to a lower than expected loss so I thought I'd bring the question here.