March 1st, 2013 at 11:32:08 AM
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The higher the denomination the slot machine, the higher the payback percentage is usually. Is that also the case with lottery scratch-off tickets? Would a $20 ticket have a higher payback than a $1 ticket?
March 1st, 2013 at 11:38:20 AM
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Yes, but it's still not good. higher tickets almost always have a higher hit frequency and a higher payback percentage. Based on a project I did 10 years ago, for the MN lottery, we're talking 1:3.xx $1 tickets are winners while 1:2.xx $20 tickets is a winner; average $1 win is $1.50ish, average $20 win is $29ish.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
March 1st, 2013 at 12:00:56 PM
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Most State scratch-off lottery tickets have the odds on the opposite side of the ticket, at least it has been that way in the states I have lived in (Illinois and Wisconsin)
A flute with no holes is not a flute, a donut with no holes is a danish
March 1st, 2013 at 12:25:06 PM
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Yes but are those odds for that particular ticket, or all tickets in general?
March 1st, 2013 at 12:26:49 PM
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I believe those are the random odds for that particular game.
A flute with no holes is not a flute, a donut with no holes is a danish
March 1st, 2013 at 12:28:37 PM
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Quote: hook3670The higher the denomination the slot machine, the higher the payback percentage is usually. Is that also the case with lottery scratch-off tickets? Would a $20 ticket have a higher payback than a $1 ticket?
Probably, but you would still be a fool for buying scratch offs considering people have supposedly cracked the distribution algorithms for the large prizes. Don't buy them.
https://www.google.com/search?q=wired+lottery+algorithm&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a
I am a robot.
March 1st, 2013 at 6:55:05 PM
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Quote: Gabes22Most State scratch-off lottery tickets have the odds on the opposite side of the ticket, at least it has been that way in the states I have lived in (Illinois and Wisconsin)
Not all states are like this. Missouri and Georgia are just required to post the overall odds of winning, which tells you nothing. Illinois was about a ~64% return for the smaller games, iirc. Obviously didn't make a big habit out of playing those.
September 19th, 2018 at 8:12:23 AM
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I wrote some software to pull information from the CA lottery website and do the math on this and it definitely looks like you're right. The higher denominations have a lot higher average expected value.
Here's the top 5 sorted by EV. The EV is the 2nd line for each game.
BONUS PLAY MILLIONS
84
$30
$10,000,000
TRIPLE JACKPOT
82
$20
$5,000,000
BIG MONEY
81
$20
$5,000,000
GRAND CROSSWORD
80
$20
$2,000,000
$5,000,000 Spectacular
79
$20
$5,000,000
And here's the bottom 5 sorted by EV
BONUS BALL BINGO
55
$3
$20,000
$25 FRENZY
53
$1
$1,000
ACE IN THE HOLE
52
$2
$20,000
5x crossword bonus match
51
$3
$20,000
TRIPLING BONUS CROSSWORD
40
$3
$20,000
Here's the top 5 sorted by EV. The EV is the 2nd line for each game.
BONUS PLAY MILLIONS
84
$30
$10,000,000
TRIPLE JACKPOT
82
$20
$5,000,000
BIG MONEY
81
$20
$5,000,000
GRAND CROSSWORD
80
$20
$2,000,000
$5,000,000 Spectacular
79
$20
$5,000,000
And here's the bottom 5 sorted by EV
BONUS BALL BINGO
55
$3
$20,000
$25 FRENZY
53
$1
$1,000
ACE IN THE HOLE
52
$2
$20,000
5x crossword bonus match
51
$3
$20,000
TRIPLING BONUS CROSSWORD
40
$3
$20,000