How to break bad runs or unlucky streaks ?
Even the casinos are losing 2 months (even in a row) looking at the overall payback returns stats per each month in a year or so.
I mostly play skill games like backgammon or blackjack and tournaments. I do this for about 7 years now and say it was worthy.
But at some points in time, it really looks and feels like Lady Luck has totally forgotten that you still live somewhere on this earth.
- My maximum losing streak was 8 months in a row on games where I have an edge ranging from 7% up to 18% (I carefully choose my opponents, and also check every game I play) With all this, I had negative or no profit at all over a month. (of course I had a few winning days, but the money earned monthly was either none or a lose) Still I won more games than I lost but this not helped me because I range the stakes from $5 to $40 a game. This is how I always done it, because if I would stick to an exact amount, say $20 a game, then, while the profit would be "sure" positive over a month, I would certainly find way less players to play against, and the profit would not be worthy for the time invested when things works normally by the odds knowing the edge I have against the others. This 8 months losing streak occurred 2 years ago. Other than that, I had a few bad runs of around 2 months long. (At the moment I am in one of these) - The question is, does anyone have an idea of how to break this ? (a pause of a few weeks will not break it btw)
2) Drag her out to your car and nail her.
3) Go back in the casino and resume gambling.
If your bad streak continues, the girl wasn't fat enough; Go back to step 1.
No reason to break it. Runs, both ways are part of gambling. You think differently??Quote: PlayHunterThe question is, does anyone have an idea of how to break this ? (a pause of a few weeks will not break it btw)
Try this then...
#1) Let the whole world know you have an edge. A provable edge. (To establish the truth or validity of by presentation of argument or evidence.)
#2) Start a syndicate.
Do Team play.
That will make you have a very large bankroll to weather the downs of gambling.
You should be using some form of Kelly Betting, and expect bankroll swings.
Even with flat betting and a 12% edge over 1000 bets has wild bankroll swings
photo below shows many ups and downs, not much to show for during the first 200 bets
You really have an edge, stop worrying and just keep playing
"the bigger the baby the louder the crying..."
I think that was Laura Nyro
#3) and play 100,000 bets each week or better... millions if not billions of bets each month or year.
When you have an edge, you should HATE variance, so play 24/7 or close to it as possible
you need many trials for the edge to work with you
#4) stop thinking about losing streaks
they are just part of gambling
More good and bad luck to you
Quote: PlayHunterI, as many over here, am an AP. We know that everyone, has at some points, some very bad runs. Some of them are so long.
Even the casinos are losing 2 months (even in a row) looking at the overall payback returns stats per each month in a year or so.
I mostly play skill games like backgammon or blackjack and tournaments. I do this for about 7 years now and say it was worthy.
But at some points in time, it really looks and feels like Lady Luck has totally forgotten that you still live somewhere on this earth.
- My maximum losing streak was 8 months in a row on games where I have an edge ranging from 7% up to 18% (I carefully choose my opponents, and also check every game I play) With all this, I had negative or no profit at all over a month. (of course I had a few winning days, but the money earned monthly was either none or a lose) Still I won more games than I lost but this not helped me because I range the stakes from $5 to $40 a game. This is how I always done it, because if I would stick to an exact amount, say $20 a game, then, while the profit would be "sure" positive over a month, I would certainly find way less players to play against, and the profit would not be worthy for the time invested when things works normally by the odds knowing the edge I have against the others. This 8 months losing streak occurred 2 years ago. Other than that, I had a few bad runs of around 2 months long. (At the moment I am in one of these) - The question is, does anyone have an idea of how to break this ? (a pause of a few weeks will not break it btw)
The pure math guys here will say to keep playing as many hands, betting games, as you can at +EV. Look at the thread I started on Variance in Sports Betting section. I will not argue with the math.
P.S. listen to 7craps....he has some of the best responses that I have seen on here.
However, when I am running really bad playing blackjack, I play less often but if you are in a +EV game, the math says to keep betting. Proper bet size too.
I have really begun to re-evaluate my experience at the casino. I just don't see how it is worth my time any more, which is tough cause I love the games and love going to casino on Friday or Saturday night with friends.
