Joined: Dec 16, 2011
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November 27th, 2012 at 2:55:02 AM permalink
Maybe some on this forum are familiar with this, but for those who aren't,

I stopped by last Friday thinking it might be a slow day so my EV would be better if I decided to play a session. I read the rules and it looked simple, if not boring. In the preliminary rounds the player receives 50k in chips and may place bets on the player or banker with a min of 1k and a max of 50k. No commission would be taken on winning banker bets and only 10 hands would be played. The math was complicated by 3 bonus bets, tie, player pair, and banker pair. Player and Banker pair pay 12-1 and tie pays 8-1. The top 8 scores of the day cash, and the top 10 are invited to a semi final on december 2nd. I had asked the registration desk how many players they had the previous day(thanksgiving) and he told me "around 100". Considering $15k is awarded in prizes for every preliminary day I thought it was quite a good play, especially factoring in advancement.

I decided that my best strategy was to bet large on banker, and just hope to get a nice winning streak. A supervisor looking over the table kindly explained to me that the player and banker pair bets would be "where I made my money", but I ignored that sage advice. I had access to the list of winning scores from the previous day and it appeared that $250k was safe for top 8, so that was my target. Long story short, I lost one hand more than I felt I could to top 8, and finished with a respectable $200k. The last 2 hands I bet the pair bets in an attempt to bolster my chipstack to my goal of 250k to no avail. I was tied for 3rd place on the day with 200k when I left, but I was sure after seeing the previous day's scores that I was out of both the money and the advancement. Much to my surprise I received an email the next day letting me know that I had made the top 10 and advanced. Players are allowed to win multiple of the top 8 prizes and may buy in any number of times, so Im guessing alot of people already qualified to allow me to sneak into the top 10 not already invited to the semi final.

So all of that is leading into...I find myself in the semi final this coming Sunday. 12 tables of 6 players and the top score from each advances to the final where $45,000 will be split among 12 players. The rules for the semi finals are: 15 hands to be played, $75k starting bankroll, min 2k max 75k, tie bets and pair bets max 10k. At the end of 10 hands play will halt for everyone to see where they stand, and the 15th hand betting will be concealed for each player.

Does anyone have an idea of a solid strategy for this scenario? Playing aggressively seems like a bad play, considering all you do by risking your bankroll is force others in turn to risk theirs to chase you, and considering you risk yours first you are at a disadvantage. At the end of the day I know luck will play a major role, but I'm looking to maximize my chances. Any feedback/discussion would be interesting and appreciated.
Joined: Jan 15, 2010
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November 27th, 2012 at 5:27:20 AM permalink
I'll give you a bump and wish you good luck. Hopefully one of the real stats nerds here sees this. The wizard has something on the Odds website about tournaments, but iirc it is very generic.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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November 27th, 2012 at 11:12:56 AM permalink
Quote: ahiromu

The wizard has something on the Odds website about tournaments, but iirc it is very generic.

Also an IIRC, but I believe there is very little there except "buy Wong's book"
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

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