Free lotto tix: Which is more +EV?
http://nylottery.ny.gov/wps/portal/!ut/p/c5/04_SB8K8xLLM9MSSzPy8xBz9CP0os_jggBC3kDBPE0MLC0dnA09vT0fLQDNvA0dfU30_j_zcVP2CbEdFACF_Djk!/dl3/d3/L0lDU0lKSWdrbUEhIS9JRFJBQUlpQ2dBek15cXchLzRCRWo4bzBGbEdpdC1iWHBBRUEhLzdfU1BURlRWSTQxODhBQzBJS0lBOVE2SzBRUzAvYU5PZGw3NTc0MDAwMQ!!/?PC_7_SPTFTVI4188AC0IKIA9Q6K0QS0_WCM_CONTEXT=/wps/wcm/connect/nysl+content+library/nysl+internet+site/home/jackpot+games/powerball/powerball+-+promotions
in the case of Powerball ($275M cash), it's $2 per ticket.
thus buy 5tix, get 1 free.
For Megamillions ($37M cash), it's $1 per ticket.
Thus 10tix + get 2 free.
For fun, i thought which free tix would be a better value?
on the surface, megamillions seems better since you get an additional free chance at the jackpot.
but since the Powerball jackpot is so large, the value of that free tix might be better?
What do you math guys say?
edit:
how about overall value?
$10 for 6 Powerball tix @$275M cash) or 12 Megamillions tix @$37M cash?
Quote: sodawaterseems obvious to me that the powerball is better for this promotion.
The powerball jackpot is more than seven times the MM and from what I remember both the $1MM and $2PB have about the same expected value per dollar.
You have to keep in mind that since the Powerball jackpot is so high there is a high probability of there being several winners. That makes the calculation much more complicated.
Quote: FleaStiffzero winners at last drawing... yet "high probability" of multiple winners at the next drawing??
Do you remember the frenzy last time when the lottery jackpot got high? As I recall there were no winners in the previous drawing, but when the jackpot became relatively "huge" everyone went out and bought tickets and there turned out to be 3 winners. I believe the Wizard did an analysis of the chances of multiple winners, and while I don't remember the exact expected number of winners it was somewhere in the vicinity of 3.
Quote: winmonkeyspit3Do you remember the frenzy last time when the lottery jackpot got high? As I recall there were no winners in the previous drawing, but when the jackpot became relatively "huge" everyone went out and bought tickets and there turned out to be 3 winners. I believe the Wizard did an analysis of the chances of multiple winners, and while I don't remember the exact expected number of winners it was somewhere in the vicinity of 3.
Something to keep in my mind is that PB are $2.00 a ticket so fewer tickets are bought.
Quote: FleaStiffzero winners at last drawing... yet "high probability" of multiple winners at the next drawing??
It isn't super high. But it is about 27% with the current sale estimates. But the fact that the jackpot is soooooooooo high, powerball is the easy choice for EV here.
