The Lucky Nines side bet in baccarrat seems profitable if you are counting

The company interblock has the auto card dealing game baccarrat.
Included is a side bet called Lucky Nines and it is based upon the first four cards (two cards each for banker and player).
There are 8 decks and it appears to go through about 95%.

Payouts for the side bet:
1 nine: 1 to 1
1 nine of diamonds: 2 to 1
2 nines: 5 to 1
2 nines same suit: 15 to 1
3 nines: 35 to 1
3 nines same suit: 500 to 1
4 nines: 1000 to 1

My question is that it seems possible to keep a side count of nines, including even the suits. At first thought, it seems that since a 9 should appear roughly once every 13 cards, and we see 4 cards for which the bet is placed, just under 1/3 hands should see a 9.
I was playing and got through about 70 cards with only two 9's having appeared. This was still early, but sure enough, near the end of the 8 deck shoe, 9's kept coming out.
Ordinarily this bet is supposed to bring in an extra 4-6% to the house according to interblock, but it seems countable.

What are your thoughts? Can anyone do the math?

*As a side note, I got lucky my first time playing and did a $1 bet and there were three 9 of hearts, for a payout of $500 - I was not counting - just got lucky! Too bad I didn't have a $10 bet...

Variables:

- Is the cut card placed 16, 14, or 7 cards from the end of the shoe? Casinos are very specific about where they like to place it (hence the ribbon); there's no need to estimate "about 95%".

- Do they let you see the burned cards, by default or by request?

The side bet may well be favorable, but we can figure more exactly if we know the variables. I would guess that those would be up to the casino placing the game, rather than Interblock, but I haven't seen this setup.

It's certainly countable, but there is the question of how much money you stand to make. What is the max bet on the sidebet? I think this will be just like lucky lucky, the BJ sidebet. Very beatable, but with high variance. You could lose a lot chasing the positive counts.

If I remember, I'll run this through my simulator tonight.

Quote: heather

Variables:

- Is the cut card placed 16, 14, or 7 cards from the end of the shoe? Casinos are very specific about where they like to place it (hence the ribbon); there's no need to estimate "about 95%".

- Do they let you see the burned cards, by default or by request?

The side bet may well be favorable, but we can figure more exactly if we know the variables. I would guess that those would be up to the casino placing the game, rather than Interblock, but I haven't seen this setup.

The cards are in a machine and you can see the 8 deck shoe continually get smaller to almost nothing, but I can't tell exactly how many cards are left in the shoe. No, you cannot see the burned cards.

Quote: dwheatley

It's certainly countable, but there is the question of how much money you stand to make. What is the max bet on the sidebet? I think this will be just like lucky lucky, the BJ sidebet. Very beatable, but with high variance. You could lose a lot chasing the positive counts.

If I remember, I'll run this through my simulator tonight.

I'm not sure what the max side bet is, though it cannot be more than your bet on the banker/player, which isn't a big deal. The biggest side bet I did was $10. I'm pretty sure you would at least be able to do $25 on it, if not more.

No one is interested?

Quote: playpianoking

No one is interested?

Can someone update me on the pay table for this bet (there appears to be more than one pay table) and a casino where it can be found? Also, I can't find an independent description of it anywhere online. Of course, this is highly vulnerable to card counting.

Thanks.

This bet is about as vulnerable as they get. The count system is obvious -- 9's have the tag -12, all other cards have the tag +1. I am showing a win rate of about 5.8 units per shoe (when the cut card is set at 14 cards), with a trigger count of +4. With a $100 unit, the AP can make a good living playing against this bet.

Full detail soon on my blog.

I can't imagine that this wager is offered in any circumstance other than a CSM game.

Quote: teliot

I can't imagine that this wager is offered in any circumstance other than a CSM game.

If this is offered in the Organic game with the robotic shoe, it's not a CSM. It's a robotic system that deals/scans cards from an 8 deck shoe while it shuffles another one. There's definitely card depletion out of the current shoe.

Video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=z1KdUWE07Ho

Quote: MathExtremist

At 37 seconds, the words "complex mechanism" are displayed graphically in the video. I don't know why, but I found that kind of funny.

Yes. They also display "VERY DURABLE" at 2:12. So if I take anything from this, their Complex Mechanism is Very Durable.

Quote: teliot

At 37 seconds, the words "complex mechanism" are displayed graphically in the video. I don't know why, but I found that kind of funny.

It's also able to deal various games from "...baccarat to punto banco"

Quote: MathExtremist

If this is offered in the Organic game with the robotic shoe, it's not a CSM. It's a robotic system that deals/scans cards from an 8 deck shoe while it shuffles another one. There's definitely card depletion out of the current shoe.

Where? Somewhere in the US? With high maximums? This is worth traveling for.

I completed my analysis of Lucky Nines and posted my results in this blog article:

Card Counting the Lucky Nines Baccarat Side Bet

Fantastic article, as always, Teliot.

They'd better step it up if they intend to do anything about that game, because it's going to get crushed. Resorts World New York, right?

Unbelievable that a company with the financial resources to develop mechanical and electronic game technology didn't do the basic AP Math work on the side bet.

I wonder what they say to clients when the client comes to them and says "Can we really get crushed by an AP on this Side Bet?""

".....Ahhh, yes, but we are working on a solution!".....Amazing and good work Teliot!

Quote: Paradigm

Amazing and good work Teliot!

I wish my handle was just "Eliot" -- that T always confuses me. But, thanks for your kind words.

Naming aside, I have been withholding my work on "Lucky Nines" for over a month. That's the longest I have ever sat on my hands. But this one was just too big to release without first contacting the manufacturer. I was surprised to find that my contact at Interblock was a former game development client of mine. I did the mathematics for one of his games in early 2008. It was a dice game and not vulnerable to advantage play. He is a very nice guy and had to put me in my place a couple of times for my exasperated E-mails.

As far as the location of the single game they claim is in the market, I wasn't directly told that information.

It is Resorts World New York pursuant to this article:

http://digital.bnpmedia.com/display_article.php?id=964374

Scroll to the bottom of the article under:

Quote:

Natural Acceptance

Get it while it's there NEerners, because it ain't going to be for long, at least not the current bet, I would assume.

Quote: Mission146

It is Resorts World New York pursuant to this article:

http://digital.bnpmedia.com/display_article.php?id=964374

I am aware of this article and what it says. But I do not have independent confirmation that this is the current location of the wager. That article is over a year old.

No problem, Teliot, I'll get to work on figuring out where it is for sure. I tried to call Resorts World, but something came up with the hours of operation, asked me to leave a message, and then hung up on me...this happened twice. It's within business hours, perhaps I'll try again later.

Okay, Resorts World in New York DOES NOT have the machines with that side bet. I found out that Bally Technologies is the distributor of the Interblock games in the U.S. and that their games currently have placement at other casinos. I am now going to go to the Bally Tech website and attempt to find these machines.

By the way, I have it from the slot supervisor at Resorts World that their Quick Hits Platinum machines are at the 92.09% Base Return setting.