Vegas Tourism Population - Static or Changes with the Attractions/Hotels?

I'm sure a bunch of you can dig up facts and since I haven't been "of age" for long enough to follow Vegas through ups and downs I'm hoping one of you can answer the question:

When someone opens a new hotel in Vegas or a hotel is closed (ie the Sahara) - does it steal business from other properties or bring in new people? I have to believe a new hotel might bring in some new business for the short time (what I'm calling the honeymoon phase) - but in general my inkling is that they steal business.

Opinions are welcome but I'd appreciate them to be supported by facts in some realm.

I don't got none of them pesky facts... don't never bother with them.
I do want to point out however that whenever a hotel is closed in Vegas it does NOT steal business from other properties, nor does it bring in new people... its CLOSED.
Now as a newly opened hotel there is a great deal of talk which existing properties will suffer the most as market pressure is altered but I have no idea if all that talk is ever supported by facts.

Quote: FleaStiff

Now as a newly opened hotel there is a great deal of talk which existing properties will suffer the most as market pressure is altered but I have no idea if all that talk is ever supported by facts.

I believe Vegas reached its saturation point years ago. Any new property only syphons off business from existing properties. Especially now. Like any other situation, the strong will survive and the weak will fade away. What hurts Vegas more than anything is all the casinos opening in every state on an almost weekly business.

Quote: ahiromu

I'm sure a bunch of you can dig up facts and since I haven't been "of age" for long enough to follow Vegas through ups and downs I'm hoping one of you can answer the question:

When someone opens a new hotel in Vegas or a hotel is closed (ie the Sahara) - does it steal business from other properties or bring in new people? I have to believe a new hotel might bring in some new business for the short time (what I'm calling the honeymoon phase) - but in general my inkling is that they steal business.

Opinions are welcome but I'd appreciate them to be supported by facts in some realm.

That question sounds very easy to answer, but it is surprisingly difficult. Some very sophisticated econometric models do try to model these questions. The "rising tide floats all boats" theory is pretty strong. I think that the closing of Sahara will negatively impact on their neighbors. It makes the northern strip seem even more creepy.

On the other hand, I feel like the Plaza was dragging downtown even lower. It is still operating as a slot club, food court, entertainment venue, and Spanish restaurant. So it isn't a forbidding hulk. But removing a 1000 rooms that were going as low as $7 to $20 a night probably will help anyone.

But this is my gut reaction. After extensive analysis of all applicable numbers for downtown over several years, I could never pick out when the Lady Luck closed just from the numbers. There is too much variance in the revenue statistics. It obliterates any one casino.

When downtown revenue began to soar in mid 2005, it was tempting to think that it was all the money being sunk into the Golden Nugget, since it was the largest hotel and the only 4 diamond property. But actually the construction caused GN revenue to drop during this period. It was just the overpriced rooms on the strip.

Urban wide the huge increase in expensive rooms after 2008, combined with the drop in visitors of several million a year, hurt Vegas. It seems to me the secret must be in getting visitors to stay an extra day to soak up some of the capacity. The logistics of getting more visitors to come seem insurmountable (no trains, limited flights, expensive gas, etc.).

you also have the strip casinos closing entire floors the past few years. they still say they have all their rooms available, but if they are only running 50% or 60% of capacity, then it helps their bottom line to keep the people on several floors instead of all floors - less maintenance time door-to-door. Just like Ceasars buit the octavius tower but didn't furnish it to save money - they have it on standby for when demand comes back {if ever}.