Odds of winning
February 26th, 2012 at 11:16:06 AM
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Help settle a “bet” on an argument. Which AZ state lottery choice has the best odds of winning with the least amount of investment?
1st – AZ state lottery The Pick with a Jackpot guaranteed payout of at least $1M with 1:7,059,052 odds for $1 per play.
2nd – AZ state scratcher $100,000 Jackpot with 1:216,000 odds for $10 per play.
1st – AZ state lottery The Pick with a Jackpot guaranteed payout of at least $1M with 1:7,059,052 odds for $1 per play.
2nd – AZ state scratcher $100,000 Jackpot with 1:216,000 odds for $10 per play.
February 26th, 2012 at 11:20:08 AM
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Quote: anyseven7Help settle a “bet” on an argument. Which AZ state lottery choice has the best odds of winning with the least amount of investment?
1st – AZ state lottery The Pick with a Jackpot guaranteed payout of at least $1M with 1:7,059,052 odds for $1 per play.
2nd – AZ state scratcher $100,000 Jackpot with 1:216,000 odds for $10 per play.
If by your question you mean which are you more likely to win given the same dollar outlay, the 2nd one will be won sooner on average. The 1st has a less horrible 'house edge', but unless there are other prizes, both are very poor bets.
February 26th, 2012 at 11:34:15 AM
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Quote: anyseven7Which AZ state lottery choice has the best odds of winning with the least amount of investment?
You need to clarify your question. If you goal is to win, obviously with $10 you are better of playing the 2nd game than ten tickets on the first game. But the prize is much smaller.
Do you want to know what is the likelihood of winning a million dollars on the second game by buying enough tickets to win ten times? For example if I have $100 to invest, would I be better off trying to buy 100 tickets in game #1, or if to buy 10 tickets in game #2 and purchasing another 10,000 tickets if I win the $100K?
February 26th, 2012 at 11:51:44 AM
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Indeed pacomartin. Maybe rephrased: If someone were to spend $100 on both, how does that change the chances of winning the $1M @ 100 tickets vs the $100,000 @ 10 tickets. And if one were to bet $100, which one would you choose?
February 26th, 2012 at 11:54:59 AM
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Bad bets was the topic. Maybe rephrased: If someone were to spend $100 on both, how does that change the chances of winning the $1M vs the $100,000. And if one were to bet $100, which one would you choose?
February 26th, 2012 at 3:01:18 PM
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The normal mathematical method is to assume the player spends enough money to buy every combination and look at the total of prizes won compared with the total wagered. Thus the other prizes available are also a factor in this decision. However I suspect your question is what are the chances of winning big, little prizes are irrelevant, and which is best.
Now we get to the second question and that is how much difference would it make if you won $100K as opposed to $1M and is the latter worth 10x more to you? Are you trying to win a good holiday, a down payment for a house, a new car, enough to retire?
This is not a silly question, as for larger amounts I suspect for most of us it wouldn't matter if we won $1M or $2M compared with the difference in winning $100k and $1M (billionaires wouldn't care a jot); for technicians this is the log(value) issue.
If for instance you wanted a very nice car, which say costs $80k but with a bigger prize you could buy a much better one, you'd probably be better off going for the smaller prize - besides you win a nice new car! However if you hated your job and wanted to give in, then $100k wouldn't be enough, so you'd go for the lower chances of the bigger prize.
In the UK this year we have had three recent winners of the Euro Millions (i.e. they have won over £30M) - I doubt if they are significantly happier than if they had only won £5M. The sensible couple's first priority was to re-carpet the landing, i.e. they enjoyed their current lives and were going to continue, albeit with nicer cars and holidays and houses for their children etc.
Now we get to the second question and that is how much difference would it make if you won $100K as opposed to $1M and is the latter worth 10x more to you? Are you trying to win a good holiday, a down payment for a house, a new car, enough to retire?
This is not a silly question, as for larger amounts I suspect for most of us it wouldn't matter if we won $1M or $2M compared with the difference in winning $100k and $1M (billionaires wouldn't care a jot); for technicians this is the log(value) issue.
If for instance you wanted a very nice car, which say costs $80k but with a bigger prize you could buy a much better one, you'd probably be better off going for the smaller prize - besides you win a nice new car! However if you hated your job and wanted to give in, then $100k wouldn't be enough, so you'd go for the lower chances of the bigger prize.
In the UK this year we have had three recent winners of the Euro Millions (i.e. they have won over £30M) - I doubt if they are significantly happier than if they had only won £5M. The sensible couple's first priority was to re-carpet the landing, i.e. they enjoyed their current lives and were going to continue, albeit with nicer cars and holidays and houses for their children etc.
