Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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February 17th, 2019 at 7:56:52 PM permalink
let's use a video poker example: $1 5play dstp 9/5 JoB (99% return), $35 a spin, $50k coin-in.
$50k/35 = 1429 spins

variance 49.16
st dev 7.011419257

OriginalSD 245.399674
sd(1429 spins) $9276.63

ev = -525 on avg but 1 s.d. can swing +/- $9k.

from a math standpoint, is anything outside of -2 s.d. (-$18k) considered running badly?
and anything within +/- 2 s.d. is considered normal variance?
(2 s.d. = +/- 95%)

if not, how many s.d. from norm do you consider running badly? -1.5 s.d. (-87%)?
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Feb 17, 2019
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
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February 18th, 2019 at 1:20:35 PM permalink
Think it's a relative kind of question. I had 10 straight losing blackjack hands from a $100 buy-in, $10 min. Felt like the cards ran badly.

Mathematically speaking, variance is a b*tch. Not uncommon to see events outside a few standard deviations. You'll see a couple in programmed pseudo-random systems. Check out the stock market and those 10 standard deviation events do still occur and at frequency greater than anyone can predict.

The house always wins.
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
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February 18th, 2019 at 10:29:48 PM permalink
SD values aren't good for estimating how good or bad you're running in VP. VP wins aren't a normal distribution in the short run. A program that can simulate this scenario is much more accurate.
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February 25th, 2019 at 2:26:10 PM permalink
Running badly is whenever I loose on ANYTHING.
Dost thou even hoist
Joined: May 3, 2016
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March 3rd, 2019 at 9:47:40 PM permalink
'Constitutes' or 'Constitution'?

Any private business open to the PUBLIC (ie. droned out casinos) cannot have a criminal trespass enforced against an individual without GOOD CAUSE (Disruptive or Disorderly conduct). You will never go to prison for being thrown out of a casino for legal advantage play and then returning because it's simply unconstitutional 'as applied' to the individual. 'As applied' constitutional issues must FIRST be raised in DISTRICT COURT (trial court) to have it thrown out. You CANNOT raise it on APPEAL This is the best kept secret in the world of casinos not just in Vegas but everywhere in the country. Thank me later.
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March 3rd, 2019 at 10:33:12 PM permalink
Running bad is obviously relative. Running bad (in general terms) is doing worse than EV, while running good is doing better than EV.

IMO, anything within +/-1 SD is just normal, as in, Iím happy if Iím within that range. Obviously Iíd rather be at the far right (double entendre, or something like that, as the Ancient ahawaiians used to say).

If youíre ZK, being at +1 SD is probably considered a horrible run, because ????

@ZK. No offense. Btw. SCG misses you. Come back plz.
Last edited by: RS on Mar 3, 2019
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March 4th, 2019 at 1:54:35 PM permalink
Running badly is either:

A) Losing.

B) Jogging with a leg injury
The best things in life are not free.

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