Counting a random card flow

In blackjack games using multi-decks with big cut-offs, it seems the only way to keep your counter's advantage is to shuffle track. How else would you know the composition of the card flow on the played side of the cut-off? In any given shoe you're playing, a lot of the "upcoming" face-cards indicated by a good positive count might be sitting in the plug....or not. You wouldn't know whether you get to play them until the end-of-play marker shows up. Without knowing the composition, then wouldn't your usual count signals for boosting the bet size be all skewed? And wouldn't an assumption that the compostion is the same on both sides of the cut-off be as often untrue as true? Which you'd never know in the shoe you're playing until its done.

An unseen card is an unseen card. If you've seen lots of little cards, then you know there are lots of big ones left. You don't need to know whether they're before or after the cut card in a specific shoe to know that, on average, you're better off raising your bet when this situation presents itself.

Most casino shuffling methodologies were designed with game protection in mind. "Plugs" and "clumps" are broken up and diluted pretty readily. This is especially so when shuffliung machines, especially the continuous shufflers, are used. Also, casinos "strip" decks as part of the shuffling process, where clumps are cut out to be interlaced (or "diluted") by being riffled into other "low-count" random blocks.

You can count down a single deck, a double deck, or a shoe to anticipate a high-count area coming up, and raise your bet, but I wouldn't bank on tracking, unless you're working with a dealer as an agent. I view advantage play in blackjack as a dead end, both for trying to make money or in having a good time at gambling.

If you're interested in BJ advantage play, including plug tracking, there's a lot of info on this at the blackjack forum, and blackjackinfo.com.