savmanchanda
savmanchanda
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November 19th, 2014 at 9:39:08 PM permalink
How is basic strategy calculate through probability calculations?
ChesterDog
ChesterDog
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Joined: Jul 26, 2010
November 19th, 2014 at 11:34:58 PM permalink
Quote: savmanchanda

How is basic strategy calculate through probability calculations?



Here's a YouTube of the Wizard showing how to calculate blackjack basic strategy with Excel.
RS
RS
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November 20th, 2014 at 5:56:38 AM permalink
Quote: ChesterDog

Here's a YouTube of the Wizard showing how to calculate blackjack basic strategy with Excel.



Damn...he makes it look so simple.
Romes
Romes
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November 20th, 2014 at 6:39:47 AM permalink
Quote: savmanchanda

How is basic strategy calculate through probability calculations?


If you're not looking to do the actual calculations and just want to know "what is basic strategy?" etc... Basic strategy comes from simulations of hundreds of millions of hands of blackjack. The simulations played the hands out with all of the different options (hit, stay, double, etc) and found the most optimal play by comparing the results. Since this is over hundreds of millions of hands this can be considered "the long run" which is why the playing decisions are reliable as the best play possible (i.e. if you hit hard 19 and draw a 2 one time, that doesn't make it the best overall play since you have such a small sampling size).

Summed up, basic strategy is the best way to play every hand of blackjack. Not that you'll always win, but it's the way in which you will for sure lose the least, in the long run (over years, not any 1 given night).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
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