Probability Theory

I stumbled upon your website while trying to figure out the odds of a
certain outcome which was insured by Berkshire Hathaway/Warren Buffett.

I am an investor with a reasonable track record, and trying to get better.
I constantly study Warren Buffett's decision and more and more it appears
that he thinks in probabilities.

My natural tendancy is not to weigh up odds, and I am desperate to change
this. I would be very very grateful if you could suggest books, articles,
websites,  and any other resources that you think may help me learn and
improve on probabilistic thinking. Please note I am a novice at present but
have an iron will to learn and improve.

*Wrong Forum.

Probably want to get a book on options and futures, like "Fundamentals of Futures and Option Markets" by Hull. It's the go-to text for using probabilities to price derivatives and other investment products.

He might be talking about the March Madness bet.

Quote: paisiello

He might be talking about the March Madness bet.

That is what I assumed he was talking about. It sounds like he just needs a recommendation of good beginner book on probability and statistics.

Quote: staivent

I would be very very grateful if you could suggest books, articles,
websites,  and any other resources that you think may help me learn and
improve on probabilistic thinking. Please note I am a novice at present but
have an iron will to learn and improve.

two good starts for probability and statistics online: http://stattrek.com/tutorials/statistics-tutorial.aspx
and
http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/index.html#stats

I like mathisfun because it is so basic it makes it fun while not being that hard
and making you feel like you will never understand any math.

Sally

Quote: dwheatley

like "Fundamentals of Futures and Option Markets" by Hull.

Although I like this book in general, it constantly confuses variance, standard deviation and volatility. Not a good source to study probability theory (despite the fact that it only touches the topic).