Andy Eppink
1) Regarding Don't Pass/Don't Come w max allowable odds (and maybe considering the opposite Pass/Come bets as well, which vig's differ only marginally from the Don't ones), CONSIDERING ONLY THESE BETS, which seem very popular, how in the world does the house make money w ROI's (for want of a better word) this lo? A non gambling business is going to shoot for 25% return on investment if they can get it. And in a couple Indian casino's outside of Albuquerque there's no vig whatever on their Free Buy 4 & 10 bets and in their Field Bets which pay triple on 2 and 12!
2) I lose more or less consistently betting the above bets, FAR, FAR in excess of that predicted by probability/statistical analyses I've read and esp in view of the tiny vig's involved. And I'm not the Lone Ranger. I've talked to a lot of guys who experience the same thing. I don't get it. Very frustrating.
Thx in advance for other's viewpoints.
Andy Eppink
1. I don't think ROI is the right word, but if you do want to use ROI, you're missing a step. The house has an expected profit on every roll, so you'd need to sum those profits over some unit of time. i.e. "my craps table takes in $12,500/month, but costs $10,000 to operate per month. My ROI is 25%"
2. Think of a casino more like a retailer than another type of business. Grocers make about 2%, and make it up on volume. That's pretty close to the casino's general model for their gaming business.
3. Don't forget that casino food, lodging, and drinks are sold at huge markups when they aren't given away free, and those items make the casino a tremendous amount of money even with freebies netted out. So it's kind of like the games are a loss-leader for the other more profitable items in the casino.
Edit: These all address your first point. I suspect that variance and over-betting are the cause of your second point. I don't have anything substantive to add there.
Quote: APEppink
2) I lose more or less consistently betting the above bets, FAR, FAR in excess of that predicted by probability/statistical analyses I've read and esp in view of the tiny vig's involved. And I'm not the Lone Ranger. I've talked to a lot of guys who experience the same thing. I don't get it. Very frustrating.
If you bring $1000 and bet at a craps table over many hours, you may have made $50,000 in bets. If your expected loss PER BET is 1%, then your expected loss is $500, not $10. You may feel like you lost $500 out of $1000......which in bankroll terms you did, but you actually lost $500 out of the $50,000 you wagered. Hope that helps.....
Quote: SOOPOOIf you bring $1000 and bet at a craps table over many hours, you may have made $50,000 in bets. If your expected loss PER BET is 1%, then your expected loss is $500, not $10. You may feel like you lost $500 out of $1000......which in bankroll terms you did, but you actually lost $500 out of the $50,000 you wagered. Hope that helps.....[/q
Thx. Seems reasonable. Thx to all for the very sensible answers.
Quote: SOOPOO$If you bring $1000 and bet at a craps table over many hours, you may have made $50,000 in bets. If your expected loss PER BET is 1%, then your expected loss is $500, not $10. You may feel like you lost $500 out of $1000......which in bankroll terms you did, but you actually lost $500 out of the $50,000 you wagered. Hope that helps.....
Man. Thoroughly p_____. Lost ~$500 at Sta. Ana Star Casino, Bernalillo, NM, bang, bang, bang, just likd that, in just over an hr making $5 bets w maybe a +- 20% bet variation on the 0 vig bets only - the Free Buy 4 & 10's and the 2 & 12 Triple Pay Field bet. No others. Didn't roll the dice, no other bets whatsoever. Thoroughly p_____. Do not understand it.
