February 18th, 2013 at 8:17:34 AM
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On a full table, 6 deck shoe, I dealt 5 blackjacks in a single hand last month. Everyone told me that was incredibly rare. Then, last night, I did it again. Just how rare is this?
April 3rd, 2013 at 12:08:52 PM
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you have a 2.41 chance of getting a black jack... so .0241^5=.00000000796
which is the same as saying... if you deal 100 million hands, that should occur 796 times
which is the same as saying... if you deal 100 million hands, that should occur 796 times
April 3rd, 2013 at 12:47:35 PM
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Quote: poiklpyou have a 2.41 chance of getting a black jack... so .0241^5=.00000000796
which is the same as saying... if you deal 100 million hands, that should occur 796 times
This isn't quite right. OP said a "full table", which can be up to 8 people if you include the dealer as well. Also, you should consider changing BJ games if the probability of a blackjack is 2.41%. For an infinite deck it's 2*(1/13)*(4/13) = 0.47338 = 1 in 21.125.
From this we can use the binomial distribution to figure out how likely it is to get 5 (or more) blackjacks from 8 hands. It is roughly once every 85k rounds or so at a full table. If you get 60 rounds/hr at a full table, then you'll see it happen once every 1400 hours or so on average.
Card removal probably ups it to about 1 in 2000 hours of play for a 6-deck game on average, but I don't want to get into all of that at the second.
April 3rd, 2013 at 7:40:21 PM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!