gambler fallacy is a fallacy
January 9th, 2013 at 11:02:03 AM
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The Gamblers Fallacy is in fact a fallacy.....OK I've said it.....here come the math geeks. I'm guessing that right now that there is not one single game of Roulette where and even money chance has repeated 25 plus in the entire world. Each day we live we get closer to our deaths. Yes/No?
January 9th, 2013 at 11:04:12 AM
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I'll pass on this. The casinos need some bad gamblers to subsidize the good ones.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 9th, 2013 at 11:09:53 AM
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No, each day we live we don't get closer to our deaths. We don't know when our deaths will be, but there are events in life where we make decisions that extend our lives longer. Therefore, each day we live, we have a change to prolong our lives and therefore, at the end of the day, we are further away from death. This can include things like:
- career decisions to take on less stressful jobs.
- the decision to quit smoking or start an exercise program.
- losing weight
- curing a disease (such as cancer)
There are plenty of things we can do to extend our lives and therefore be further away from death at the end of the day we've lived.
- career decisions to take on less stressful jobs.
- the decision to quit smoking or start an exercise program.
- losing weight
- curing a disease (such as cancer)
There are plenty of things we can do to extend our lives and therefore be further away from death at the end of the day we've lived.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
January 9th, 2013 at 11:16:35 AM
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Do you disagree that there in nary a Roulette game worldwide currently that is showing 25 plus even money repeats? All streaks end right? That's not very nice to call me a bad gambler considering you have no idea who I am....Get out of your Ivory Tower Wizard.
January 9th, 2013 at 11:18:29 AM
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What?
January 9th, 2013 at 11:25:07 AM
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If you use Martingale,
firstly, you will reach the table limit way before doubling your bet 25 times (> 33.5 million betting units),
secondly, you either don't have the bankroll to reach the 25 double ups, your initial bet is too small to turn a significant profit, or you are filthy rich already and don't need any $10 roulette winnings in the first place.
firstly, you will reach the table limit way before doubling your bet 25 times (> 33.5 million betting units),
secondly, you either don't have the bankroll to reach the 25 double ups, your initial bet is too small to turn a significant profit, or you are filthy rich already and don't need any $10 roulette winnings in the first place.
January 9th, 2013 at 11:27:15 AM
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I never use progressions......they eventually tap the bankroll
January 9th, 2013 at 11:28:17 AM
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I am just imagining Mike with his Sauron robes on in his ivory tower as the Ents close in on him.
25 even money repeats = (18/37)^24 = 32,381,820:1
25 even money repeats = (18/37)^24 = 32,381,820:1
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
January 9th, 2013 at 11:35:46 AM
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hehe.....good job with the math. Yes, we all know the probability is the same for every spin but the degree of certainty changes. Again all streaks end....maybe in another galaxy a guy in on an infinite roll of reds.
January 9th, 2013 at 11:36:32 AM
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Quote: stoneynvThe Gamblers Fallacy is in fact a fallacy.....OK I've said it.....here come the math geeks. I'm guessing that right now that there is not one single game of Roulette where and even money chance has repeated 25 plus in the entire world. Each day we live we get closer to our deaths. Yes/No?
Sooo, the gambler's fallacy is a fallacy because none of the world's 5,000 roulette tables are currently displaying a status that is itself a 32.5MM:1 unlikelihood? Do you see how that statement makes you look like a fool?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
January 9th, 2013 at 11:38:32 AM
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Forgive me for my ignorance, but I haven't a clue what this means.
Quote: stoneynv... 25 plus even money repeats ...
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
January 9th, 2013 at 11:38:41 AM
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Quote: stoneynvthe degree of certainty changes.
No, it doesn't. Past spins don't impact future spins. Nothing is ever "due." But, let's say you're right that all streaks end - what methodology are you going to use to predict the timing of the ending?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
January 9th, 2013 at 11:39:40 AM
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A fool would be somebody that quotes Maurice Clarett
January 9th, 2013 at 11:43:15 AM
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If you consider that the 32.3 million to 1 applies to 5,000 tables (there's more like 40,000 tables in the world, and probably 10,000 in use at any one time, perhaps 20,000 on a weekend) and that a streak starts after the first color is thrown, and there are about 700 spins a day per wheel, I'd put the odds of a 25+ even number spin at about 10:1 for all operating wheels per day.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
January 9th, 2013 at 11:43:26 AM
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"let just say that I'm right and all streaks end"......I didn't realize that was open to debate
January 9th, 2013 at 11:46:30 AM
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Quote: stoneynv"let just say that I'm right and all streaks end"......I didn't realize that was open to debate
Of course it is. There is no mathematical or physical reason why a streak at a roulette table should ever end. It could roll red for the rest of it's operating life.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
January 9th, 2013 at 11:47:13 AM
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Quote: stoneynvA fool would be somebody that quotes Maurice Clarett
I can see the path of personal insults is too tempting.
Quote: boymimbo25 even money repeats = (18/37)^24 = 32,381,820:1
Anyway, you won't get anyone to bet you even money that 25 reds in a row will happen, nor take 32 million to one neither. 33 million to one I'll take though! You're on! [I've got the one dollar end of that bet]
Unfortunately I insist your end be put in escrow.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
January 9th, 2013 at 11:48:26 AM
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great insight.....OK bump it to 35 spins........
January 9th, 2013 at 11:49:19 AM
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Are you saying you have a way to bet against 25 even money repeats without hitting the table limit? - I'd like to know how.
To get to your original point "no roulette wheel in the world with 25 repeats":
If the 450 wheels in Nevada alone run only 12 hours per day (365 days a year), the probability of the 25 repeats NOT occuring within one year at one of those tables is about 3%. In other words, in any given year, 25 even money repeats will happen at least once with 97% probability.
(I have counted the zeros to go against the player. i.e. the probability of an unfavorable repeat is 20/38)
To get to your original point "no roulette wheel in the world with 25 repeats":
If the 450 wheels in Nevada alone run only 12 hours per day (365 days a year), the probability of the 25 repeats NOT occuring within one year at one of those tables is about 3%. In other words, in any given year, 25 even money repeats will happen at least once with 97% probability.
(I have counted the zeros to go against the player. i.e. the probability of an unfavorable repeat is 20/38)
January 9th, 2013 at 11:49:53 AM
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earth to dwheatley
January 9th, 2013 at 11:54:53 AM
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Yeah, but I would take an even bet that at least 1 of 5,000 roulette wheels operating at 1 spin every two minutes would hit 25 red or black in a row within a week. (single zero).
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
January 9th, 2013 at 11:57:01 AM
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makes sense.......just joined the Wizard and I'm impressed with quality of posts......if one brings up "gambler fallacy"......watch out for incoming
January 9th, 2013 at 11:58:58 AM
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Quote: odiousgambit
Anyway, you won't get anyone to bet you even money that 25 reds in a row will happen, .
I won't, but I offer even money on 25 non reds in a row (i.e. either black or zero) happening in Nevada in 2013. (Interestingly this distinction makes quite a difference and crosses the even money point. (I've reduced the estimated number of spins for this calculation just to be safe, it is some nice EV...)
January 9th, 2013 at 12:01:29 PM
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Quote: stoneynvmakes sense.......just joined the Wizard and I'm impressed with quality of posts......if one brings up "gambler fallacy"......watch out for incoming
That's not just going to happen for the gambler's fallacy. It goes for all obviously, laughably wrong statements;-)
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
January 9th, 2013 at 12:01:56 PM
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Quote: dwheatleyThere is no mathematical or physical reason why a streak at a roulette table should ever end. It could roll red for the rest of it's operating life.
At which time the streak ends.
January 9th, 2013 at 12:03:11 PM
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sounds about right
January 9th, 2013 at 12:07:29 PM
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Quote: SanchoPanzaAt which time the streak ends.
Isn't it an X spin long streak forever if there are never any additional spins on the wheel?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
January 9th, 2013 at 12:07:42 PM
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Hey Ohio State, I'm simply stating the obvious, all streaks end. Is that foolish?,
January 9th, 2013 at 12:08:55 PM
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Quote: stoneynvHey Ohio State, I'm simply stating the obvious, all streaks end. Is that foolish?,
Yes, using the word all in that statement is foolish. Really, really foolish.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
January 9th, 2013 at 12:11:28 PM
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Quote: stoneynvHey Ohio State, I'm simply stating the obvious, all streaks end. Is that foolish?,
The fallacy is that you can make money betting on the situation. Do you think the casino fears you have figured out that it is rare to see? Even 6 in a row. Does the pit boss run up and declare "no more even bets !!! " ?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
January 9th, 2013 at 12:15:09 PM
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deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
January 9th, 2013 at 12:15:10 PM
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OK, I'm the fool. .....let me in on a game of even odds repeaters that is going on infinitum......goof
January 9th, 2013 at 12:18:12 PM
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the "gambler fallacy" rants can go on for infinitum unlike repeaters on a Roulette wheel.....
January 9th, 2013 at 12:23:58 PM
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The Gambler's fallacy is not that streaks must end, it's that it's any more likely to end this spin than the next or the one before it, or three spins time.
It's the fallacy that prior events have an effect on future events in a truly random system. Nothing is DUE on a roulette wheel.
It's the fallacy that prior events have an effect on future events in a truly random system. Nothing is DUE on a roulette wheel.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
January 9th, 2013 at 12:27:21 PM
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you right......nobody win gambling
January 9th, 2013 at 12:30:05 PM
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You guys are being trolled. The GF argument is
a famous trolling question on gambling forums.
Look at the OP's attitude, he's arrogant and insulting,
he wants to be banned. I'm sure its somebody who's
been here before.
a famous trolling question on gambling forums.
Look at the OP's attitude, he's arrogant and insulting,
he wants to be banned. I'm sure its somebody who's
been here before.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
January 9th, 2013 at 12:42:00 PM
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Hey, uneven bob, if you took to time to read entire thread (wouldn't blame you if you didn't) you would find that the thread started with a simple statement/idea.....the insults came to me and of course I'm going to defend myself........goof
January 9th, 2013 at 12:44:53 PM
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Quote: stoneynvHey, uneven bob,
Like I said, a troll. And not even a good one.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
January 9th, 2013 at 12:47:14 PM
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EvenBob may be alot of things to
alot of people, but that last thing
he is is a *goof*.
alot of people, but that last thing
he is is a *goof*.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
January 9th, 2013 at 12:49:08 PM
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O.K. UnevenBob, I've been found out. goof
January 9th, 2013 at 12:50:48 PM
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Quote: EvenBobYou guys are being trolled.
OH YEAH, I forgot!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_1lg4Y6mvw
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
January 9th, 2013 at 1:01:30 PM
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O.K........I'm releasing my system free to all the nice people on this thread.......ready........wait for EvenBob to actually be up (my have to wait awhile or forever ) then start playing the exact opposite of EvenBob.....
January 9th, 2013 at 1:08:38 PM
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Quote: stoneynvO.K........I'm releasing my system free to all the nice people on this thread.......ready........wait for EvenBob to actually be up (my have to wait awhile or forever ) then start playing the exact opposite of EvenBob.....
lol! sounds about as good as any other system:-)
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
January 9th, 2013 at 1:10:00 PM
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finally a friendly post.....thank you
January 9th, 2013 at 2:22:47 PM
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Quote: stoneynvGet out of your Ivory Tower Wizard.
I'm heating up the cauldrons of boiling lead. Ivory tours are a useful place to pour them from.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 9th, 2013 at 2:27:18 PM
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I'll be sure to bypass any Ivory Towers
January 9th, 2013 at 3:12:45 PM
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I think you mean Saruman. :)Quote: boymimboI am just imagining Mike with his Sauron robes on in his ivory tower as the Ents close in on him.
This is Sauron:
And while Sauron was vanquished from Middle Earth, he's found a new home at the Cheesecake Factory:
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
January 9th, 2013 at 3:20:54 PM
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That is by-far the best part about the cheesecake factory. It's like:
The all-seeing eye of cheesecake
actual cheesecake
Penny from BBT
cheesecake factory food
The all-seeing eye of cheesecake
actual cheesecake
Penny from BBT
cheesecake factory food
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
January 9th, 2013 at 5:15:25 PM
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Quote: EvenBobYou guys are being trolled. The GF argument is
a famous trolling question on gambling forums.
Look at the OP's attitude, he's arrogant and insulting,
he wants to be banned. I'm sure its somebody who's
been here before.
This. Obviously.
January 9th, 2013 at 7:14:59 PM
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I apologize if I'm wrong here, but hasn't the Wizard already admitted that a martingale without a bankroll or betting limit can work? That's exactly what you're doing with the 25/35/45 spins or whatever, you can make it statistically impossible for you not to see 25/35/45 straight reds or blacks. The fact remains that there's still a chance, however remote, that you will see that many consecutive same colors - and it never relates in a positive note to how much money you're risking.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
