Trancending basic math in calculating house edges

As a long time advantage player I have always been keenly interested in the house edge, against which I would count or play hole cards etc. Your excellent website is an invaluable source for that type of information. Now I have found myself with a new perspective, in California, banking as a third party proposition player. I have looked at the Wizard's numbers for three games after adjustment for element of risk, UTH, Mississippi stud, and California three card poker. My question is how do we estimate the practical house edges given the generally clueless play by the average sort, and which of these three games is best for the player to bank? Furthermore, I am concerned that California three card, although its Wizard published advantage is roughly five times greater than that of UTH, actually is less preferable to bank because there is a diminished strategic mine field across which to traverse. Most people know intuitively, in three card, not to play an 875 off against a king, whereas, many in UTH fail to raise before the flop with hands like AK suited. Please enlighten me.

House edge is always calculated based upon perfect strategy, for the very reasons you specify: Just how do you calculate for stupidity?

But there is another metric that is hard to calculate: playing thru a bankroll many times.

As a result, casinos generally focus more on the hold rather than the edge. And hold can only be calculated after-the-fact.

Well you can always calculate the loss in EV for a specific (wrong) decision.

Quote: MangoJ

Well you can always calculate the loss in EV for a specific (wrong) decision.

True, but how can you estimate how often that wrong decision will come into play?

I am brand new to this site but I have spent time reviewing some of the math threads. Before I noticed how many posts you had it was obvious to me by your various responses that you know your stuff. I thereby value your opinion. If you had a gun to your head and could chose only one game to bank, three card with almost 3% but limited complications, or UTH with .5% but multiple inflection points leading to perhaps unprecedented complexity, which game would you choose? If your answer is you don't know, by the way, that in itself is revealing in a most useful way.

I'm going to say "I don't know" but I'm also going to say 'why'...


Frankly, I'm not an industry insider. I read - and retain - a lot. I'm just an ordinary player, who happens to have invented a side bet, Poker For Roulette. As a result of the invention process, I've gained a lot of insight, but no real world experience, yet.

When I play, I generally only play craps, blackjack and live poker. I have never played 3CP, and only briefly played one of the many hold-em table games. Therefore, I have no real way of analyzing things to give you an answer.

Gun to my head? I'd try to get info from other casinos about the table hold for the games in question. Failing to get that, I'd ask players why they enjoy the games. On the surface, the player mistake factor seems to make UTH attractive. But player error can have a negative effect. If it causes players to not enjoy the game, they may not play it much. And that would mean a low table hold.

And, as I specified, hold is everything.


Does that answer the question?

I have good results over a substantial number of hours banking UTH. I have heard it is the first game in Ca history in which the corporation earn (or perhaps "hold") actually exceeds the house collection. The only problem is that the action in UTH has slowed down considerably while three card seems to still have heavy action. I am concerned about transitioning, even temporarily, because with the two dollar charge per banked hand (greatly vitiating the edge in all California table games for the player-banker) the lower the edge the higher the probability of ruin. When things are dead in UTH I am wondering if I am better off going to another casino to bank UTH or simply slide over to the busy three card game? Does the wizard himself often weigh in on these threads?

Why do you play craps? Are you an action junkie? Surely you know the game is unbeatable unless you are sliding dice or cheating.

Quote: joethomas135

Does the wizard himself often weigh in on these threads?

He may offer a response, but you're kinda venturing into an area where you'd be better off talking to him about his consulting services.

I wish I could give you better responses to your other questions.

Quote: joethomas135

Why do you play craps? Are you an action junkie? Surely you know the game is unbeatable unless you are sliding dice or cheating.

"Action Junkie" ? Yeah, I guess I am.

I am not any sort of Advantage Player. I play BlackJack mostly because it's a game that most of my family also plays, and we often play together. Then again, we often play craps together too. My wife loves Let It Ride, but I'd rather put a bullet in my head. On the other hand, I occasionally play PaiGow Poker, but she calls is "That stupid game with the quarters." I can't wait until EZPG hits my area....

I love the man vs man aspect of poker. Plus the fact that, with practice, it's potentially beatable.

One way is to observe how the average player plays and make notes on how often they play certain plays.
In order to minimise the work you have to chose plays that come up often and are not obvious plays.
Then you run simulations based on the observation and how often suboptimal plays are made.
Of course you will not a simulation program for the specific game.
It is a lot of work and the result of course will be an estimate or a range of estimates.

The alternative with a simulation program is to find the specific game online (for play money) and play it using the common mistakes for several thousands hands. This estimate though will be a far less reliable estimate as the sample will be small.

The best aletrnative and the easiest to start is to find other people who bank the game (and have been doing this for a long time) and find what kind of profit they have been making.

Quote: joethomas135

As a long time advantage player I have always been keenly interested in the house edge, against which I would count or play hole cards etc. Your excellent website is an invaluable source for that type of information. Now I have found myself with a new perspective, in California, banking as a third party proposition player. I have looked at the Wizard's numbers for three games after adjustment for element of risk, UTH, Mississippi stud, and California three card poker. My question is how do we estimate the practical house edges given the generally clueless play by the average sort, and which of these three games is best for the player to bank? Furthermore, I am concerned that California three card, although its Wizard published advantage is roughly five times greater than that of UTH, actually is less preferable to bank because there is a diminished strategic mine field across which to traverse. Most people know intuitively, in three card, not to play an 875 off against a king, whereas, many in UTH fail to raise before the flop with hands like AK suited. Please enlighten me.

Are there CA installations of UTH and MS Stud?

thanks.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

True, but how can you estimate how often that wrong decision will come into play?

It's not complicated

We take a particular player, and analyzes the 100 games.

Base EV Casino +1%

For example Player (A) made one mistake: otpimalnoe solution 0.55 and the player decided to 0.15 (error 0.4 = 40% ante)

EV Player (A) = -1.4% (instead -1%)

DJ " And, as I specified, hold is everything." WRONG ! Win is everything.

The hold is the percentage of money won from players by the casino.

Win is the amount of chips that the players, after a specific period of time, do not get to cash in but leave at the table as losses.

A game with a high hold but little action is a LOSER.

Quote: Dobrij

It's not complicated

We take a particular player, and analyzes the 100 games.

Base EV Casino +1%

For example Player (A) made one mistake: otpimalnoe solution 0.55 and the player decided to 0.15 (error 0.4 = 40% ante)

EV Player (A) = -1.4% (instead -1%)

And how many profiles would we need or does one size fit all ?

Buzzard I like your way of thinking!

It really is possible to make all players.

But there is underwater pits!

(please forgive me for my English, I write through the online translator)

Forgive my sometimes not-so-good English. I do not use an on-line translator.

As for liking my way of thinking, they haves cures for that now.

Only 13 posts since June. Come on in, lots of room now that EvenBob has abandoned us.