DJTeddyBear
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May 20th, 2022 at 2:44:02 PM permalink
In the two dice thread, there was mention of a get-together to prove/disapprove the 1/11 two dice result. And it was implied that the get-together would happen at some point during the table games show week, but maybe not near the show or even not on the strip.

Frankly, I was hoping it would be on the strip, since I’m not planning on renting a car this time.

With that in mind, and considering that that thread is generating several pages of replies every day, I figured we talk about the get-together venue and time, here.

There was an implication that it would be Wednesday, lunchtime, at Red Rock.

Is that true?
Any other ideas?
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
SphinxOfCups
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May 20th, 2022 at 2:46:13 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

In the two dice thread, there was mention of a get-together to prove/disapprove the 1/11 two dice result. And it was implied that the get-together would happen at some point during the table games show week, but maybe not near the show or even not on the strip.

Frankly, I was hoping it would be on the strip, since I’m not planning on renting a car this time.

With that in mind, and considering that that thread is generating several pages of replies every day, I figured we talk about the get-together venue and time, here.

There was an implication that it would be Wednesday, lunchtime, at Red Rock.

Is that true?
Any other ideas?
link to original post


I'm game for a get-together, but I agree to keeping it on the strip due to not renting a car. What's this about proving a dice result?
DJTeddyBear
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May 21st, 2022 at 11:58:34 AM permalink
Quote: SphinxOfCups

What's this about proving a dice result?
link to original post

How could you miss a thread that created over 30 pages in less than a week?

Anyway, the best post about the challenge is on page 14, here: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/all-other/37156-two-dice-puzzle-part-trois/3/#post850487

Note, PLEASE don’t discuss the problem or the challenge here except to discuss the location and date/time of the challenge.

On that note, I would like it to be on strip since I won’t have a car.

And if we can’t come up with a better location, depending on the number of people, we could do it in my hotel room at Excalibur.

So I guess I should also ask for a head count.

Who’s in?
Last edited by: DJTeddyBear on May 21, 2022
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
SphinxOfCups
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May 21st, 2022 at 4:30:02 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Quote: SphinxOfCups

What's this about proving a dice result?
link to original post

How could you miss a thread that created over 30 pages in less than a week?link to original post


I only hang around the Game Inventors forum.

Quote: DJTeddyBear


On that note, I would like it to be on strip since I won’t have a car.

And if we can’t come up with a better location, depending on the number of people, we could do it in my hotel room at Excalibur.

So I guess I should also ask for a head count.

Who’s in?
link to original post


I would say count me in as a maybe. How much time will there be for exhibitors to go elsewhere for lunch? I was expecting to need to man the booth pretty much all day.
zbrownson
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May 21st, 2022 at 6:29:34 PM permalink
I will be exhibiting as well so lunch is probably out for me. I also mostly stay in the game inventors forum, but if anyone here wanted to grab drinks or dinner Tuesday or Wednesday evening (anywhere south strip) I would be game.
Wizard
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May 23rd, 2022 at 9:02:21 AM permalink
LoquaciousMoFW has very kindly procured a Sky View suite to conduct the challenge. If these are the suites at the end of the hallways, which I think they are, I can confirm they are HUGE. Also the same type of suite Stephen Paddock used on 10/1/17 for the worst mass-shooting in US history.

The challenge is scheduled after the days Cutting Edge events. The table game showcase closes at 5:30 that day. I'd like to suggest those who want to meet at a restaurant, that I won't name here, but it is one one of the casinos south of Tropicana. I'll name it by PM on a "need to know" basis. Then, let's go to the Loquacious suite for the challenge.

At this time, can I get a list of names interested in dinner and/or the challenge. So far I've got LoquaciousMoFW, Wizard, and DJTeddyBear.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
DJTeddyBear
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May 23rd, 2022 at 11:11:45 AM permalink
Obviously, I’m in for both with no real preference of which is first.

But if I may, challenge first, then dinner with waitress trivia, then maybe group gambling. Or is there a chance the challenge will take a long time? Hmmm… maybe dinner first is better.

I also suggest, depending on how many are joining us, get a reservation for dinner.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Wizard
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May 23rd, 2022 at 4:50:15 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Obviously, I’m in for both with no real preference of which is first.

But if I may, challenge first, then dinner with waitress trivia, then maybe group gambling. Or is there a chance the challenge will take a long time? Hmmm… maybe dinner first is better.

I also suggest, depending on how many are joining us, get a reservation for dinner.
link to original post



This challenge should take only an hour or so. I'm open to some tiles after the challenge at the MGM, based on group interest. I can also bring tiles and we can play against each other.

Agreed on the reservation.

Reminder -- trying to get a list of names going.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
SphinxOfCups
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May 23rd, 2022 at 7:44:39 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Obviously, I’m in for both with no real preference of which is first.

But if I may, challenge first, then dinner with waitress trivia, then maybe group gambling. Or is there a chance the challenge will take a long time? Hmmm… maybe dinner first is better.

I also suggest, depending on how many are joining us, get a reservation for dinner.
link to original post



This challenge should take only an hour or so. I'm open to some tiles after the challenge at the MGM, based on group interest. I can also bring tiles and we can play against each other.

Agreed on the reservation.

Reminder -- trying to get a list of names going.
link to original post


I'm on board, definitely looking to integrate myself more with the scene and community. To confirm we're looking at that Wednesday evening?
zbrownson
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May 24th, 2022 at 7:48:16 PM permalink
I am in for the dinner
Wizard
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May 24th, 2022 at 8:30:18 PM permalink
Quote: SphinxOfCups

To confirm we're looking at that Wednesday evening?
link to original post



Yes.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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May 24th, 2022 at 8:33:05 PM permalink
Updated list of names: LoquaciousMoFW, Wizard, SphinxOfCups, zbrownson and DJTeddyBear.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ksdjdj
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May 25th, 2022 at 1:16:04 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

(snip) Here are some tentative details:

  • Challenge to take place June 8 in Las Vegas
  • LoquaciousMoFW will wager $5 per shake
  • I have kindly upped the win for two 2's to 8 to 1.
  • LoquaciousMoFW has agreed to keep playing until losing $200. At that point, he/she has the option to back out.
  • If for some reason LoquaciousMoFW can't be present, he/she has agreed to front money and have a proxy play for him/her

(snip)
link to original post


Under the above rules, I want to bet^^^ on " that either side has lost less than $200 within 125 resolved*** bets" at even money (1/1).

^^^: I would like to wager between $100 and $500.

***: A bet is considered resolved, when it does not end in a push.

Anyone interested, just pm me.
Wizard
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May 25th, 2022 at 6:00:42 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Under the above rules, I want to bet^^^ on " that either side has lost less than $200 within 125 resolved*** bets" at even money (1/1).

^^^: I would like to wager between $100 and $500.

***: A bet is considered resolved, when it does not end in a push.

Anyone interested, just pm me.
link to original post



Loq can expect to lose 2/11 units per bet resolved, or $0.91. In 125 resolved bets, he should be down $113.64, well under $200.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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May 25th, 2022 at 11:02:38 AM permalink
I'm happy to say I arranged for a female friend to act as Loq's proxy for the challenge. I do plan to make a video of the challenge and she will definitely add some eye candy to it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
coachbelly
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May 25th, 2022 at 11:31:10 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Loq can expect to lose 2/11 units per bet resolved, or $0.91. In 125 resolved bets, he should be down $113.64, well under $200.



With resolved bets paying either $5 or $40, under what circumstances could the bettor be down $113.64...or any fraction of a whole dollar for that matter?
DJTeddyBear
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May 25th, 2022 at 11:40:52 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I'm happy to say I arranged for a female friend to act as Loq's proxy for the challenge. I do plan to make a video of the challenge and she will definitely add some eye candy to it.
link to original post

Does this female friend know you refer to her as eye candy? 🤣
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Wizard
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May 25th, 2022 at 12:07:29 PM permalink
Quote: coachbelly

With resolved bets paying either $5 or $40, under what circumstances could the bettor be down $113.64...or any fraction of a whole dollar for that matter?
link to original post



As I asked in a previous post, when did schools quit teaching what an average is?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ThatDonGuy
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May 25th, 2022 at 1:26:18 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Under the above rules, I want to bet^^^ on " that either side has lost less than $200 within 125 resolved*** bets" at even money (1/1).

^^^: I would like to wager between $100 and $500.

***: A bet is considered resolved, when it does not end in a push.


I get, within 125 rolls where at least one die is a 2:
The probability that the betting side is behind $200 at some point is 41.58745 %
The probability that the betting side is ahead $200 or more at some point is 1 / 17.5
The probability that neither side ever loses at least $200 is 52.71884 %


Behind $200 at some point
1,000,026,172,663,193,672,068,917,808,364,091,352,612,745,827,399,766,227,575,509,060,806,339,601,868,139,449,193,572,265,814,010,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 / 2,404,634,482,291,387,436,999,035,112,467,943,821,264,376,750,252,588,937,017,049,629,550,269,007,496,589,852,703,863,870,743,390,179,184,382,737,155,521,565,532,657,390,324,999,801

Ahead $200 or more at some point:
6,291,114,915,513,567,923,906,831,411,310,509,736,877,586,729,609,625,721,037,556,887,514,655,502,527,767,082,058,865,876,030,297,363,928,015,959,852,785,969,427,362,876,746,383,105,985,908,612,854,510 / 110,492,304,881,919,948,051,599,917,336,894,646,763,142,837,983,882,725,738,117,023,041,891,695,206,542,537,091,047,761,343,697,223,182,477,961,309,009,064,566,370,099,164,421,021,416,584,499,474,139,961

Either of these happens at some point:
52,242,047,405,889,288,413,301,758,578,995,133,421,038,943,621,711,568,852,833,657,310,810,632,005,947,760,991,861,601,221,542,930,165,889,055,735,462,785,969,427,362,876,746,383,105,985,908,612,854,510 / 110,492,304,881,919,948,051,599,917,336,894,646,763,142,837,983,882,725,738,117,023,041,891,695,206,542,537,091,047,761,343,697,223,182,477,961,309,009,064,566,370,099,164,421,021,416,584,499,474,139,961

coachbelly
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May 25th, 2022 at 2:14:05 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

when did schools quit teaching what an average is?



Oh I see...answering a question with a question, eh?

Is the Wizard Jewish. Does it seem like it?
Dieter
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May 25th, 2022 at 4:25:19 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: coachbelly

With resolved bets paying either $5 or $40, under what circumstances could the bettor be down $113.64...or any fraction of a whole dollar for that matter?
link to original post



As I asked in a previous post, when did schools quit teaching what an average is?
link to original post



I think that may be in 5th or 6th grade curriculum.

I'll accept whatever punishment is to be meted out.
May the cards fall in your favor.
ksdjdj
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May 25th, 2022 at 4:36:33 PM permalink
My previous offer is still open (see link here ) but I also want to put forward the wager below:

Wager: I want to bet^^^ even money (1/1) on "that there will be between 0 and 4 " two 2's ", after the first 50 resolved bets" (50 bets that don't involve a push).

^^^: I would like to wager between $100 and $500.

Note: In case my wording isn't clear, I will win the bet if 0 to 4 "two 2's" are rolled, and you will win the bet if 5 (or more) "two 2's" are rolled, in the first 50 resolved bets.
coachbelly
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May 25th, 2022 at 4:57:29 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

I'll accept whatever punishment is to be meted out.



Meted out by whom?

Take a month off and get in the game without the stripes on.

Maybe then you can answer why the bettor should expect a condition that cannot occur.
ksdjdj
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May 25th, 2022 at 5:18:49 PM permalink
Even though "average" can mean more than one thing in Math, I take it to be the "Arithmetic Mean " in relation to this thread and "in general" (but I could be wrong).

Note: See link here , for a fairly simple explanation.
Joeman
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May 26th, 2022 at 5:42:29 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Even though "average" can mean more than one thing in Math, I take it to be the "Arithmetic Mean " in relation to this thread and "in general" (but I could be wrong).

I'm sure I learned "average" (arithmetic mean) in elementary school. (Actually, I was most likely introduced to it via baseball stats outside of school, but I digress.) But I'm pretty sure I never heard the term "Arithmetic Mean" until high school.

I'm guessing it is outlined somewhere in the Two Dice Puzzle thread, but what are the exact terms of this challenge? I'd rather not have to wade through that whole thread to find it, for my mental health's sake (plus I'm lazy!)
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
ThatDonGuy
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May 26th, 2022 at 8:06:34 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

My previous offer is still open (see link here ) but I also want to put forward the wager below:

Wager: I want to bet^^^ even money (1/1) on "that there will be between 0 and 4 " two 2's ", after the first 50 resolved bets" (50 bets that don't involve a push).

^^^: I would like to wager between $100 and $500.

Note: In case my wording isn't clear, I will win the bet if 0 to 4 "two 2's" are rolled, and you will win the bet if 5 (or more) "two 2's" are rolled, in the first 50 resolved bets.
link to original post


The probability of there being between 0 and 4 "two 2s" in the first 50 resolved bets is about 0.5186.
Wizard
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May 26th, 2022 at 9:58:54 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

The probability of there being between 0 and 4 "two 2s" in the first 50 resolved bets is about 0.5186.
link to original post



I'd love to have you at the challenge, giving a running commentary on the odds.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ThatDonGuy
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May 26th, 2022 at 10:53:25 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: ThatDonGuy

The probability of there being between 0 and 4 "two 2s" in the first 50 resolved bets is about 0.5186.
link to original post



I'd love to have you at the challenge, giving a running commentary on the odds.
link to original post



Actually, where there does appear to be a formula for calculating, say, the probability of reaching +200 before -200 from a particular point, it's somewhat complicated, and the formula itself varies based on the current point.
Since the bets are in steps of $5, let's simplify it to bets of 1, so each bet either wins 8 or loses 1, and the target is +/- 40.
If the current profit is P, starting at 0, the probability of reaching +40 before reaching -40 appears to be, if I am reading Ethier correctly:

1 - (10/11)^(40 + P) * f(40 - P) / f(80)
where f(k) = the sum over all n from 0 to floor((k-1) / 9) of {(-1)^n * combin(n - 8k + 1, n) * (10^8 / 11^9)^n}

It shouldn't be that hard for somebody to whip up an app that can run a simulation for a result from any particular profit point.
Ace2
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May 26th, 2022 at 12:13:38 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Even though "average" can mean more than one thing in Math, I take it to be the "Arithmetic Mean " in relation to this thread and "in general" (but I could be wrong).

Note: See link here , for a fairly simple explanation.
link to original post

What else can "average" mean in math?
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billryan
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May 26th, 2022 at 12:20:55 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: ksdjdj

Even though "average" can mean more than one thing in Math, I take it to be the "Arithmetic Mean " in relation to this thread and "in general" (but I could be wrong).

Note: See link here , for a fairly simple explanation.
link to original post

What else can "average" mean?
link to original post




Average could be mean, median ,or mode.
you can add all the numbers together and divide them to get an average figure.
you can look for the number that half the subjects are on either side of it
you can make the most popular figure the average.

I make a million dollars, my ten employees make $100,000 each.
I can say the average salary is almost $200,000, which is true
My employees can say the average is $100,000 which is true as it is the most popular, and half the employees make it or more, and half make it or less.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
ksdjdj
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May 26th, 2022 at 1:56:27 PM permalink
Quote: Joeman

(snip) I'm guessing it is outlined somewhere in the Two Dice Puzzle thread, but what are the exact terms of this challenge? I'd rather not have to wade through that whole thread to find it, for my mental health's sake (plus I'm lazy!)
link to original post


I am pretty sure these two links below sum up the rules and terms etc for the challenge (unless they have changed?):
Link_1
Link_2
Ace2
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May 26th, 2022 at 2:36:09 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: Ace2

Quote: ksdjdj

Even though "average" can mean more than one thing in Math, I take it to be the "Arithmetic Mean " in relation to this thread and "in general" (but I could be wrong).

Note: See link here , for a fairly simple explanation.
link to original post

What else can "average" mean?
link to original post




Average could be mean, median ,or mode.
you can add all the numbers together and divide them to get an average figure.
you can look for the number that half the subjects are on either side of it
you can make the most popular figure the average.

I make a million dollars, my ten employees make $100,000 each.
I can say the average salary is almost $200,000, which is true
My employees can say the average is $100,000 which is true as it is the most popular, and half the employees make it or more, and half make it or less.
link to original post

Nope. The average is the mean. The median is the median. The mode is the mode.

The three are equivalent only in a standard normal distribution...such as the probability distribution of 100 coin flips. Equivalent in this special case but never the same
Last edited by: Ace2 on May 26, 2022
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unJon
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May 26th, 2022 at 4:29:21 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: billryan

Quote: Ace2

Quote: ksdjdj

Even though "average" can mean more than one thing in Math, I take it to be the "Arithmetic Mean " in relation to this thread and "in general" (but I could be wrong).

Note: See link here , for a fairly simple explanation.
link to original post

What else can "average" mean?
link to original post




Average could be mean, median ,or mode.
you can add all the numbers together and divide them to get an average figure.
you can look for the number that half the subjects are on either side of it
you can make the most popular figure the average.

I make a million dollars, my ten employees make $100,000 each.
I can say the average salary is almost $200,000, which is true
My employees can say the average is $100,000 which is true as it is the most popular, and half the employees make it or more, and half make it or less.
link to original post

Nope. The average is the mean. The median is the median. The mode is the mode.

The three are equivalent only in a standard normal distribution...such as the probability distribution of 100 coin flips. Equivalent in this special case but never the same
link to original post



Billryan is correct that the word average, at least as used in common English as taught to me when I was in school, is broad enough to cover mean, median and mode. As used colloquially it usually is meant as mean.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
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June 6th, 2022 at 9:35:14 AM permalink
I just sent out a PM blast to all those who have expressed an interest in attending the challenge. If you wish to go and didn't get the PM, please let me know.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ksdjdj
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June 6th, 2022 at 6:28:00 PM permalink
I hope everyone has a great experience no matter the outcome, and I can't wait to see the video recording of the session (if / when available).
Wizard
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June 7th, 2022 at 6:56:21 AM permalink
The challenge is tomorrow! Last chance for anyone who wants to piggyback on the 8 to 1 odds for two 2's side to express an interest.

As a bit of trivia, between the three parts of the puzzle thread, I count about 1,680 posts over almost nine years.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ThatDonGuy
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rawtuffksdjdj
June 7th, 2022 at 9:03:34 AM permalink
For those of you following along, here are the probabilities of reaching +200 before -200 from any point from -195 to +195:


"Current" is the current profit/loss value, starting with 0 and assuming bets of 5 that pay 8-1 when they win
"Prob of Win" is the probability of reaching +200 before reaching -200
CurrentProb of Win
-1951 / 1053.032
-1901 / 513.821
-1851 / 334.223
-1801 / 244.529
-1751 / 190.795
-1701 / 155.042
-1651 / 129.564
-1601 / 110.507
-1551 / 95.73
-1501 / 83.95
-1451 / 74.349
-1401 / 66.382
-1351 / 59.672
-1301 / 53.949
-1251 / 49.015
-1201 / 44.724
-1151 / 40.96
-1101 / 37.636
-1051 / 34.683
-1001 / 32.044
-951 / 29.675
-901 / 27.538
-851 / 25.603
-801 / 23.845
-751 / 22.242
-701 / 20.777
-651 / 19.433
-601 / 18.198
-551 / 17.06
-501 / 16.01
-451 / 15.038
-401 / 14.138
-351 / 13.302
-301 / 12.525
-251 / 11.801
-201 / 11.127
-151 / 10.497
-101 / 9.908
-51 / 9.358
01 / 8.843
51 / 8.359
101 / 7.906
151 / 7.48
201 / 7.08
251 / 6.703
301 / 6.349
351 / 6.016
401 / 5.702
451 / 5.406
501 / 5.126
5520.569 %
6021.683 %
6522.85 %
7024.073 %
7525.349 %
8026.693 %
8528.11 %
9029.605 %
9531.175 %
10032.817 %
10534.526 %
11036.294 %
11538.113 %
12040.128 %
12542.288 %
13044.55 %
13546.878 %
14049.241 %
14551.613 %
15053.973 %
15556.304 %
16060.277 %
16563.888 %
17067.171 %
17570.155 %
18072.868 %
18575.335 %
19077.577 %
19579.616 %

Yes, there is a 20% chance of reaching -200 before +200 if you start at +195.
ThatDonGuy
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June 8th, 2022 at 12:14:36 PM permalink
And here are the expected number of resolved bets remaining at any given point:

Profit# Bets Remain
-1955
-19010
-18515
-18020
-17525
-17030
-16535
-16040
-15545
-15050
-14554
-14059
-13564
-13069
-12573
-12078
-11582
-11087
-10591
-10096
-95100
-90105
-85109
-80113
-75117
-70121
-65125
-60129
-55133
-50137
-45140
-40144
-35147
-30151
-25154
-20157
-15160
-10163
-5166
0169
5171
10174
15176
20178
25180
30182
35183
40185
45186
50187
55187
60188
65188
70188
75188
80187
85186
90185
95184
100182
105179
110177
115174
120170
125166
130162
135157
140151
145146
150140
155135
160124
165113
170104
17596
18088
18581
19075
19569


ThatDonGuy
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June 8th, 2022 at 4:54:52 PM permalink
Er, when (and where) is the challenge, anyway?
DJTeddyBear
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June 8th, 2022 at 5:55:04 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Er, when (and where) is the challenge, anyway?
link to original post

It’s in just a couple hours.

For the location, send a PM to the Wiz for the details.

Note: I don’t know if everyone who asks will receive the info. I mean, it might be semi-private.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Ace2
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rsactuary
June 8th, 2022 at 6:44:42 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Er, when (and where) is the challenge, anyway?
link to original post

Right between the Star Trek Convention and the Dungeons & Dragons Annual Meeting
It’s all about making that GTA
ThatDonGuy
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June 8th, 2022 at 7:40:21 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Er, when (and where) is the challenge, anyway?
link to original post

Right between the Star Trek Convention and the Dungeons & Dragons Annual Meeting
link to original post


Got it - it's "in Vegas."

And you don't want to know how many people whine year after year that the GenCon gaming convention, which gets its name from the fact that originally it was held in the city where the company that originally made D&D was headquartered, is far too big for Indianapolis (seriously, the annual "housing lottery" to see who lets shut out of a hotel that isn't within 10 miles, much less "walking distance," from the convention center, is a sight to behold) and needs to be moved to somewhere with far more concentrated hotel space - say, the Las Vegas strip. Don't worry; it will almost certainly never happen, for two reasons; it needs to be much closer to the eastern half of the country, and yes, they do realize that quite a few of the attendees are under 21.
Dieter
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June 8th, 2022 at 7:42:36 PM permalink
I think the math may get different if you borrow dice from the D&D group.
May the cards fall in your favor.
Wizard
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June 9th, 2022 at 6:12:15 AM permalink
The challenge went well. Forum members attending were DJTeddyBear, LoquaciousMoFW, SphinxOfCups, and me. Besides the proxy, there were four other friends who attended at least part of it.

Recall that LoquaciousMoFW agreed to keep playing until he lost $200, betting $5 at a time. That said, here is a count of every turn.

0 2's: 225
1 2: 104
2 2's: 8
Total: 337

The net win for LoquaciousMoFW was 104*-5 + 8*40 = -200.

The ratio of two 2's to bets resolved was 8/112 = 7.14% or 1 in 14.

The expected number of two 2's in 112 bets resolved is 112/11 = 10.18. So, there was a small shortfall in two 2's, but nothing to be suspicious about. It took quite a while to see the first pair of 2's. As I recall, the proxy was down about $120 by the first time it happened.

The total rolling time I would estimate was a little under an hour.

A video will be forthcoming documenting the event.

I would like to thank LoquaciousMoFW for both the nice suite to perform the challenge and taking the losing side. I also thank the Proxy for her help.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
OnceDear
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June 9th, 2022 at 7:06:56 AM permalink
Thanks for the report. Who's proxy was that? Or is it a secret.
Didn't Coachbelly show?
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ThatDonGuy
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June 9th, 2022 at 7:51:49 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Recall that LoquaciousMoFW agreed to keep playing until he lost $200, betting $5 at a time. That said, here is a count of every turn.

0 2's: 225
1 2: 104
2 2's: 8
Total: 337

link to original post


112 resolutions does seem a little low, but it turns out that 3/8 of the time, the bettor loses the entire $200 in 112 or fewer resolutions. The median length is around 148.
gordonm888
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June 9th, 2022 at 12:22:04 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

here is a count of every turn.

0 2's: 225
1 2: 104
2 2's: 8
Total: 337

link to original post



So, there were 112 trials in which at least one of the two dice was a 2. And only 8 out of 112 times were both dice a 2. If the frequency of two 2s in this challenge was 1 in 6 then we would have expected an average of about 18.7 pairs of 2's out of 112 trials in which at least one of the dice was a two.

I imagine that no one has changed their mind because of this trial, and that the earth continues to spin around the sun.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
teliot
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camapl
June 9th, 2022 at 1:13:25 PM permalink
The NULL hypothesis here was "1/6-th of the time that one of the dice shows a two they will both show a two."

In other words, if you take the total number of times there was a two and divide that by 6, you should get the number of times both were two. Since there was a 2 on 112 tosses, the NULL hypothesis predicts that 112*(1/6) = 18.7 of those should have been 2-2 and the other 84.3 should show only one two.

Chi-square analysis of this experiment gives a p-Value of 0.004. This is widely recognized as sufficient to negate the NULL hypothesis. Often, p < 0.05 is used as evidence to negate the NULL hypothesis, so this is pretty strong.

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Wizard
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June 9th, 2022 at 5:39:28 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

The NULL hypothesis here was "1/6-th of the time that one of the dice shows a two they will both show a two."
link to original post



Meanwhile, here is the same table with expected totals based on correct probabilities.

Twos Ways Actual Expected
0 25 225 234.028
1 10 104 93.611
2 1 8 9.361
Total 36 337 337.000


p value = 0.427605218
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
DJTeddyBear
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June 9th, 2022 at 5:50:13 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

I imagine that no one has changed their mind because of this trial, and that the earth continues to spin around the sun.
link to original post

Well, I maintain that the world is not round.

(It’s an oblate spheroid.)
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
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