Wizard of Odds Academy

Quote: djatc

- be youtuber
- upload 10 minute videos for ad time
- ALL CAPS TITLE WITH (NOT CLICKBAIT) (IN THE HOOD) (GONE SEXUAL)
- thumbnail of cleavage
- unremovable overlays to SUBSCRIBE and to TITTY SMACK THAT LIKE BUTTON
- first 3 minutes explaining your V-bucks giveaway or PSN cards
- a couple more minutes of a backstory of what you did this week
- 30 seconds or so of actual content in the end somewhere, right before "SUBSCRIBE FOR MORE CONTENT AND TO ONCE AGAIN TITTY SMACK THAT LIKE BUTTON"

Don’t forget something about patreon.

Quote: Wizard

I tried for a whole semester to explain [Probabilities in Five Card Poker] in my class at UNLV and some students still never got it.

Even more ambitious to try to teach it in a short video. But you say so yourself.

I watched the first part of it. Knowing I am not going to be able to match the master, the pupil postponed indefinitely the rest of the video.

It seems to me to be an excellent video to watch for someone who is familiar with the math and wants to review and maybe improve his knowledge on the topic.

For someone new to it, it could work taking it slowly as a project, studying on the side parts that are hard to understand, then going back, etc. You'd have to dedicate some time and effort, like say, yep, a semester!

For an interested person who however never went far in math, I'd say no matter how clever a teacher or video maker you are, this just isn't going to click for them.

Your next lesson in the Wizard of Odds Academy is how to calculate the odds in the Powerball. You'll be happy to know I kept it just over eight minutes this time. Enjoy!


Direct link: https://youtu.be/Tsl3vlBqR7A

Wiz,

Watched the pass line in craps video and found it enjoyable and super informative.

I was also watching your Pai Gow videos while commuting to and from work via train, but I wasn't retaining the info. I've since printed the tiles chart and follow along with the videos and I am finally getting it. With some more practice, I will have the game knowledge necessary to play on the floor without feeling like an idiot.

Thanks for the videos and info! It is very appreciated!

JM

Quote: Wizard

Your next lesson in the Wizard of Odds Academy is

I made it to 58 seconds in. I did flunk
algebra in 9th grade, math is not my
forte.

This was better!

You can make it shorter by speaking faster. LOL, speaking clearly and speaking slowly are not necessarily the same thing. In fact, you should read from a script when doing voice-over so that there is no "searching for words." If you were telling a bedtime story to a child, you would not speak as slowly as you do in this video.

Even on topics I love, when I search through you-tube I favor the short videos. I simply tend to avoid clicking on a 10 minute or 20 minute long video because I would be investing in a long video of uncertain quality and relevancy.

Quote: Jmarch79

Watched the pass line in craps video and found it enjoyable and super informative.

Thank you! Nice to get at least one positive comment. For what little it's worth, I do hope to get better.

Wizard

Having already attempted this video I have a couple of suggestions!

FIRSTLY, there have to be assumptions of how "math-savvy" the viewer is. In your video, you assume the viewer is VERY familiar with Excel; so familiar that you don't even bother to explain how the column calculations work! Those calculations are based upon a fundamental understanding of how probability works when a limited set of possibilities present themselves. So, I would have focused on explaining that first, for example-

In a game called "True-Odds Six Geese", a single die is rolled, and players can be on any goose-number (1 - 6).
Question: If this game pays TRUE ODDS, then, what should the bet pay??
Answer: For any given goose-number, there are 6 WAYS total, 1 way wins, 5 ways lose, so the TRUE ODDS of hitting any given goose-number is FIVE TO ONE.

A visual representation of this most fundamental of all formulae drives it home... looking at the various WAYS this single die can roll explains how relative probability works... you need to count the total number of possible ways (6), and divvy that up into wins and losses (one win, 5 lose), then divide those two numbers to compute the TRUE ODDS probability.

I usually also provide an example of an "unfair mapping" which is a fancy name for a game that has a house edge; for example, I would explain that the game of "Six Geese" has no house edge to it, so in order to make it profitable, they have to add rules to swing the expected value of the game into their favor. Here is an example of such a rule-

The game of "Six Geese, Ugly First Duckling" is played like "True-Odds Six Geese", but that if the number rolled is a 1, then everyone loses... what are the odds to win that game? By working out the math on these simpler examples, I think the complex example of the pass-line bet in craps can be more easily understood, and the concept of true-odds vs. house-edge become apparent.


SECONDLY, a visual representation of the 2-dice WAYS TABLE is crucial for seeing exactly how each roll comprises it's percentage of probability. And I strongly suggest that this is required before you can then go on to show how they are computed in Excel... you need to show the ways table as you derive each of these calculations in each of your Excel rows. I know that you can "see numbers", but not all of us are that gifted!


THIRDLY, to explain how the pass-line bet works in craps, I start out explaining how the pass line bet works in CRAP-LESS CRAPS! This is because the crap-less game is far simpler to explain... not having to deal with the 2,3, or 12 on the come-out roll makes it very simple to explain how the overall odds of winning or losing is computed. Once this is understood, the added complexity of the 2, 3, or 12 on the come-out roll can be more easily understood.


CONCLUSION: I fully understood this video, but I doubt that even the most savvy of craps players can follow this presentation because 1) you don't explain how probibility works, in general, 2) you don't have the ways table to visualize what the Excel formulas are computing, and 3) it is confusing to consider the 2, 3, and 12 on the come-out roll without first understanding the much simpler game of crap-less craps.

Marty, 26-Apr-2018

Quote: discflicker

(fixed)

Ouch! Go back and fix this; I think you know what you are talking about, but the language is wrong. Fair odds for one out of six [the language of representing a fraction] is expressed as one TO Five ... 'odds given' are NOT said in the way a *fraction* is normally expressed. If you don't fix this no one will read the rest of your post.

Quote: odiousgambit

Ouch! Go back and fix this; I think you know what you are talking about, but the language is wrong. Fair odds for one out of six is expressed as one TO Five ... not as a *fraction* is normally expressed. If you don't fix this no one will read the rest of your post.

YOU ARE CORRECT!!!

1 TO 5

good catch, thanks

Quote: discflicker

Wizard

Having already attempted this video I have a couple of suggestions!...

Firstly, thank you for the suggestions. It is nice to get some comments from someone who has presented evidence of having actually watched the video.

Secondly, I hope you can see my conflict here. Everybody except you is giving me flack for the length already, saying nobody will watch anything without boobs in it if the length is over five minutes.

Thirdly, about the Excel, it was not my original intent to do these in Excel but with a tablet. However, my handwriting with this tablet is awful and slow. It is getting a little better, however. It is quite weird to write on one thing and see what you're writing elsewhere. I don't see how people can get through life without Excel, or some other spreadsheet. I think spreadsheets are one of the greatest human advancements of my lifetime. Maybe I'll try to do my one today both ways.

Fourth, I admit I cast my net towards a math and computer savvy audience already. Imagine how difficult it would have to explain the poker one to the average person. It would have taken hours. Like I wrote earlier, I taught a whole college course that was mostly on how many ways to pick x times out of y, and many students still never got it.

Quote: Wizard

Secondly, I hope you can see my conflict here. Everybody except you is giving me flack for the length already, saying nobody will watch anything without boobs in it if the length is over five minutes.

Actually, I thought the boobs were a MAJOR DISTRACTION in your craps video, and I wrote a comment stating so. It had to at least be uncomfortable... that was palpable.

Quote: Wizard

Thirdly, about the Excel, it was not my original intent to do these in Excel but with a tablet. However, my handwriting with this tablet is awful and slow. It is getting a little better, however. It is quite weird to write on one thing and see what you're writing elsewhere. I don't see how people can get through life without Excel, or some other spreadsheet. I think spreadsheets are one of the greatest human advancements of my lifetime. Maybe I'll try to do my one today both ways.

The greatest super-app ever, yes, but you are at such a high level, that you can see numbers. The arrowhead-shaped 2-dice ways table visually shows where the numbers come from... its like you skipped a step in the explanation.

Quote: Wizard

Fourth, I admit I cast my net towards a math and computer savvy audience already. Imagine how difficult it would have to explain the poker one to the average person. It would have taken hours. Like I wrote earlier, I taught a whole college course that was mostly on how many ways to pick x times out of y, and many students still never got it.

That's why I thought it was a bit weird that you spent several minutes going over the pass line in the first part of your video... it seemed sophomoric compared to the Excel calculations.

HOW ABOUT THE IDEA OF EXPLAINING CRAP-LESS CRAPS calculations before jumping into craps?

I love this stuff.

Quote: discflicker

HOW ABOUT THE IDEA OF EXPLAINING CRAP-LESS CRAPS calculations before jumping into craps?

I feel it would insult the audience. The pass bet is not that complicated. Then again, I admit it is very difficult to explain at the table. When I redo the video, which I will eventually, I'll consider it.

Quote: prozema

You've got me on the names of betting progressions but I think the average gambler just wants to know how much to bring if they want to play for a few hours and not leave penny less. Maybe a walk through on how to calculate distribution curves would be a good video.

ahh.. found it!
betting 4/9 of your bankroll is called BOLD PLAY.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/11150-3rolls-w-proper-bankroll-vs-2rolls-with-bold-play-bet-size/

Your Wizard of Odds Academy lesson today is on the odds in keno.

Before the latest round of complaints, let me say one of the criticisms last time was the excessive use of Excel. This time I worked out most of the math by hand. However, I couldn't help throwing in a quick Excel calculation too. It is not exactly fast to write with this Creative Tablet, but I'm getting better.

Another comment was to "know my audience." My audience is not looking for a a two-minute video featuring large breasts. For that, I highly recommend Hot for Words.

Those throwing stones may not be "my audience." I admit these videos could be better but please keep in mind I'm trying to teach math here. How exciting was your trigonometry teacher? Thank you.


Direct link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4tZc7AOazk&feature=youtu.be

Quote: Wizard

Those throwing stones may not be "my audience." I admit these videos could be better but please keep in mind I'm trying to teach math here. How exciting was your trigonometry teacher? Thank you.

Agreed, because I would prefer longer videos with more excel.

I’d take most the naysayers with a grain of salt. These are video lectures, not buzzfeed videos.

Quote: gamerfreak

Agreed, because I would prefer longer videos with more excel.

I’d take most the naysayers with a grain of salt. These are video lectures, not buzzfeed videos.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Quote: Wizard

How exciting was your trigonometry teacher? Thank you.

Mr Singer? He was 50 and bald. He
was still more exciting than what
he was teaching. I dropped the
class.

Your Keno video appears to be unavailable. While I already know how to do the current stuff you are showing, your two videos on infinite deck blackjack were awesome. I’ve followed along several times to make my own versions.

Quote: miplet

Your Keno video appears to be unavailable. While I already know how to do the current stuff you are showing, your two videos on infinite deck blackjack were awesome. I’ve followed along several times to make my own versions.

Can you try again. I don't see what you do because I have admin status on my channel.


Direct: https://youtu.be/t4tZc7AOazk

Glad you liked those blackjack basic strategy videos. I made them because a good friend, who is in the business, once professed that she thought the basic strategy was a myth and wrong -- that there must have been a mistake in Thorp's work and everybody else has just been repeating the same mistake for decades, without ever considering to independently verify the work.

The Keno video works now.

Today's Wizard of Odds Academy video is part 1 of 2 on calculating the odds in sic bo. I hope all those complaining about the length of my videos appreciate that I divided this one in two. In this video you will learn how to calculate the probability of throwing any given total with three dice. Actually, any number of dice. In addition, the probability of throwing any given face 0 to 3 times. Enjoy!


Direct link: https://youtu.be/DuKpslLehcU

Here is the eagerly awaited part 2 in my sic bo series.


Direct link: https://youtu.be/chyV5DKT25I.

Quote: Wizard

Today's Wizard of Odds Academy video is part 1 of 2 on calculating the odds in sic bo. I hope all those complaining about the length of my videos appreciate that I divided this one in two. In this video you will learn how to calculate the probability of throwing any given total with three dice. Actually, any number of dice. In addition, the probability of throwing any given face 0 to 3 times. Enjoy!

Direct link: https://youtu.be/DuKpslLehcU

I first posted on Wizard of Odds in 1999 or so asking about Sic Bo. I was doing really well playing it at the time, operating under several wrong perceptions.
You were kind enough to straighten me( and at least one other member) out. Sadly, once I knew what I was doing was doomed to fail, it did just that.
I had fun playing it back in AC. For a while, it was really easy to get comps for minimal play.

Quote: billryan

I first posted on Wizard of Odds in 1999 or so asking about Sic Bo. I was doing really well playing it at the time, operating under several wrong perceptions.
You were kind enough to straighten me( and at least one other member) out. Sadly, once I knew what I was doing was doomed to fail, it did just that.
I had fun playing it back in AC. For a while, it was really easy to get comps for minimal play.

Thank you for the story! It is always nice to hear that my advice has been helpful. I'm sure I would have said that if you must play sic bo, bet on the small and big only. Hopefully these two videos have explained why -- as opposed to taking the advice on faith.

Totally awesome videos!! "Sic".

Ricochet payed 200 to 1 for those tipples. I bet it would have been wildly popular in Macao.

Hello students. Today your lesson will be on why you shouldn't play 6 to 5 blackjack, when 3 to 2 is available.


Direct link: https://youtu.be/V8CGYSl2N60

I've decided to reshoot the ending. Enjoy this lousy ending while you can for the next few hours.

Here is the 6-5 Blackjack video with the new and improved ending. I don't remember who recommended the $1,000 microphone, but this one I hope you'll find an improvement over the tiny one in my camera. It cost only about $50 though. Ahigh recommended the brand and model and he knows his audio/visual stuff as well as anyone I know.


Direct link: https://youtu.be/n4Ru1QHLg_I

4 times the hourly cost? WOW, I didn't think it makes that much difference. Thanks again, Mike.

Quote: discflicker

4 times the hourly cost? WOW, I didn't think it makes that much difference. Thanks again, Mike.

You're welcome!

Today's lesson will be on why you shouldn't take insurance in blackjack. Enjoy.


Direct link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRT6SdWT4tI&feature=youtu.be

Today's lesson will be how to calculate the odds in the Pair Square side bet.


Direct link: https://youtu.be/3XDTmnldND4

Today's lesson is on analyzing the pick 3 and pick 4 games in the Texas Lottery. Enjoy!


Direct: https://youtu.be/fUfMwzbhA5s

I watched the 6/5 video both on here and you tube. Volume sucks. Cranked all the way up to even hear, and then at 5:39 until the end mostly static, Clicked on another utube video, and had to reduce volume knob by 2/3rds.

Quote: edwardjsmith

I watched the 6/5 video both on here and you tube. Volume sucks. Cranked all the way up to even hear, and then at 5:39 until the end mostly static, Clicked on another utube video, and had to reduce volume knob by 2/3rds.

Yes, I've heard this complaint before. Personally, I can hear just fine with the volume at about 15 on a 1 to 100 scale. My computer speakers are nothing special. Nevertheless, I am looking into getting some more advanced editing software that lets me control the volume of the final product. If anyone has any suggestions, I'm all ears.

Quote: Wizard

Yes, I've heard this complaint before. Personally, I can hear just fine with the volume at about 15 on a 1 to 100 scale. My computer speakers are nothing special. Nevertheless, I am looking into getting some more advanced editing software that lets me control the volume of the final product. If anyone has any suggestions, I'm all ears.

What software program(s) are you currently using?

Quote: gamerfreak

What software program(s) are you currently using?

Windows Live Movie Maker. It is defunct software that you can't buy any longer. I'll be forced to learn something new when I upgrade computers, which I'm long overdue for.

I tried adjusting a few things and probably only made things worse. However, please watch this video and give me your feedback on the volume. Thank you.


Direct: https://youtu.be/LycjXaAf9_s

Here is another version, that is probably equal or worse.


Direct: https://youtu.be/zcT3huNgSRQ

I have a stupid question. What it the catch with free Open Source software like Shortcut video editor? I've wondered the same thing about WordPress. I'm an economics major and something you learn on day one is there is no free lunch. "Free" things are almost never truly free.

Thank you.

Quote: Wizard

If anyone has any suggestions, I'm all ears.

I have not looked in some time, but I used YouTube for increasing the sound, adding music and other fixes to a video that I uploaded, iirc.
I am sure it is way better now. you should look into what it could do for you.
most videos I have looked at that you just created has audio problems, being too quiet, even using headphones.

just for sound, I have also used VLC media player in the past for audio additions in videos
and don't forget
Audacity for normalizing and increasing the volume.
Sally

There is no free lunch.
WRONG. (In a certain sense and certainly when it comes to free software).

Lets start with the bar room free lunch.
It was free but you were expected to buy beer. And the foods were generally, though not exclusively, salty which might induce more beer drinking. Anyone who abused the system would "get the bum's rush" and be tossed out into the alley. Does this sound a bit like a Card Counter and a Blackjack table? It should, its sort of the same thing.

If you don't mind picking yourself up from the alley a few times, you did indeed get a free lunch for a few days. After which, you pull the same stunt for a few days at the tavern on the next street corner. Eventually your ship comes in and you start buying beer or you become unwelcome at every place in town.

Free software? Its often a "labor of love" for a few diehards programmers who are true believers. Often the Free Version is similar in concept to the "do a short video and offer a link to the longer video filled with the dreaded maths". People develop and sell a free software program and then offer a super duper version for sale. Or the super duper version is free too but consultancy fees are available for the desperate.

The free software may be later abandoned or left to volunteers but it works. Look at Note Taking software. Several free programs and several commercial programs. Want to download from some humungous database and the database server will offer you five or six different formats, some of the free ones, some of them the pricey ones. Many people stick with the adequate freeware rather than graduating to the versions that are dripping with adjectives and options.

Quote: FleaStiff

Lets start with the bar room free lunch.
It was free but you were expected to buy beer. And the foods were generally, though not exclusively, salty which might induce more beer drinking. Anyone who abused the system would "get the bum's rush" and be tossed out into the alley. Does this sound a bit like a Card Counter and a Blackjack table? It should, its sort of the same thing.

Okay, point taken, but I still say the bar room lunch isn't totally "free." There is an implied contract to buy beverages. True, you could get away with being a mooch a few times but the price would be you get 86'd from the bar.

Maybe a better example would be a coupon for a free new candy bar. If you went to the store and only got the candy bar, they might say under their breath, "what a cheap bastard," but wouldn't do anything, because they get reimbursed by the candy maker. I would say there is that the consumer provided a service to try the candy bar. He may even like it and buy many more.

About the software, you may have a point. My Wizard of Odds site was totally advertising free the first 2.5 years. My MathProblems site still is and DT pretty much is. I have never made a dime from the attorney ad there, it was meant hopefully lure other advertisers, but never did.

Quote: mustangsally

I have not looked in some time, but I used YouTube for increasing the sound, adding music and other fixes to a video that I uploaded, iirc.
I am sure it is way better now. you should look into what it could do for you.

Thanks Sally. I tried that yesterday but the YouTube volume was already cranked up all the way.

Maybe I do need that $1,000 microphone that somebody else recommended I get.

Quote: Wizard

Thanks Sally. I tried that yesterday but the YouTube volume was already cranked up all the way.

Maybe I do need that $1,000 microphone that somebody else recommended I get.

I would try this before I spend a grand on a microphone. We use these for video conferencing all the time and they are fine.

Plantronics 85619-101 Black Wire C320,M , Wired Headset , On- Ear , Gray https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01CQ8CC3Q/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_i_cJj-AbAESC2PW

Quote: Wizard

Maybe a better example would be a coupon for a free new candy bar.

Radio Shack used to do that decades ago. FREE flashlights just walk in and pick one up off the table. One to a customer, totally FREE. Stacked all over the place were batteries for sale.
Six months later: FREE batteries. Stacked all over the place were flashlights for sale.

And always the (Insert your favorite ethnic group here) would walk in and only take the free item without buying a cent for anything, but most people did spend money once they were in the store.

Think of the other examples I've mentioned. The people who would go to ski resorts but never ski so they never had to buy lift tickets but enjoyed the rooms, meals, drinks and parties without buying expensive lift tickets.

See the Casino analogies looming? Free cherry pie? Free chicken dinner, Free spin, Free Love. Well.... free a lot of things.

Taverns were often language schools for immigrants, job referral halls, etc. So a true "bum" would actually be deserving of the famed bum's rush but usually would be given three days to be a man about it. Even during the depression at the Three Penny restaurants for poor men who had families, heaven help the man who paid with a nickel and failed to leave the two cents as a tip. To this day there are the Dinty Moore's bars in NYC. Sell lots of beer and offer a free steam table of meat and potatoes and the like. They no longer give a man three days though, just one day. After that they throw you out if you haven't been swilling beer.

Free open source parallel programming languages like Rust are used for developing web crawlers that download petabytes by the zillions. Keeps the makers of hard drives and memory chips in business.

Free video editing software may have a bit of a learning curve but what doesn't? Its the final product that you want to focus on,.

DT should probably have a box of rotating ad spaces. I sent that attorney's name and number to someone who was selling his California home and moving to Vegas. Don't know if it lead to anything or not.

Quote: FleaStiff

Radio Shack used to do that decades ago. FREE flashlights just walk in and pick one up off the table. One to a customer, totally FREE. Stacked all over the place were batteries for sale.
Six months later: FREE batteries. Stacked all over the place were flashlights for sale.

I haven't thought about this in some 40 years, but I vaguely recall going in there with a coupon for a free battery. There was a Radio Shack by my house and I went there as a kid all the time. I remember buying a lot of blank cassette tapes there to copy friends records onto.

Quote: prozema

I would try this before I spend a grand on a microphone...

Thanks for the suggestion. Just minutes before reading this I ordered something similar on Amazon. I noticed when I did that testing yesterday it helped a lot if my mouth was about six inches from the microphone. Hopefully that will solve the problem.

Quote: prozema

I would try this before I spend a grand on a microphone. We use these for video conferencing all the time and they are fine.

Plantronics 85619-101 Black Wire C320,M , Wired Headset , On- Ear , Gray https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01CQ8CC3Q/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_i_cJj-AbAESC2PW

Plantronics made all of our ATC headsets my entire career. They work very well, especially the corded ones.

I haven't done a non-cubing video for a while. For the benefit of all you people who don't have volume knobs, I got a new clip-on microphone, so I hope you'll be able to hear me better. Please let me know.

The topic of this video is the Sum it Up bets in the Pick 3 and Pick 4 games of the Texas Lottery. I appreciate all comments, volume or otherwise.


Direct: https://youtu.be/-NxwCTFYVsk