Macau Gaming Revenue is out of control

Well this is the 12th straight month of YoY drop in gaming revenue. The last 12 months were $36.6 billion, down from $48.4 billion, a drop of nearly $12 billion in the last year.

Month Million of Unit:MOP million
Jun 27,215 28,269 -3.7%
Jul 28,415 29,485 -3.6%
Aug 28,876 30,737 -6.1%
Sept 25,564 28,963 -11.7%
Oct 28,025 36,477 -23.2%
Nov 24,269 30,179 -19.6%
Dec 23,285 33,460 -30.4%
Jan 23,748 28,739 -17.4%
Feb 19,542 38,007 -48.6%
Mar 21,487 35,453 -39.4%
Apr 19,167 31,318 -38.8%
May 20,346 32,354 -37.1%

Macau in a free-fall and taking Wynn Resorts with it


“If you were to ask me, since we’re making forward-looking statements, what will the second quarter look like in Las Vegas? Weak. Do you hear me? Weak. So I’m trying to lower expectations here. This notion of a big recovery is a complete dream. I don’t think Las Vegas is experiencing a great recovery.”

— Wynn Resorts Ltd. Chairman Steve Wynn, April 28, 2015

Maybe Steve Wynn confused Las Vegas with Macau.


http://www.reviewjournal.com/columns-blogs/inside-gaming/macau-free-fall-and-taking-wynn-resorts-it

Quote: Deck007

This notion of a big recovery is a complete dream. I don’t think Las Vegas is experiencing a great recovery.”

It makes sense that Wynn may donwplay recovery in Las Vegas. Wynn Resorts still gets 25.7% of it's operating income from Las Vegas, while Sands Corporation gets 9.9% from Las Vegas. No one would expect Vegas to pull Sands out of the fire, but people could overly optimistic about Vegas pulling Wynn Resorts out of the fire.

Steve Wynn still has to pay Kazuo Okada, for his shares, and now he may have to buy back some of Elaine's shares to keep her from selling large amounts. Probably the last thing he wants right now is for his stock to rise.

In comparison with Sands numbers, Wynn did a little worse (he doesn't have casinos in Singapore), but not massively worse.

Wynn: Three Months Ended	March 31,	March 31,	Change
Revenues:	2015	2014
Casino	$826,099	$1,226,133	-32.6%
Rooms	$132,055	$136,476	-3.2%
Food and beverage	$136,013	$141,837	-4.1%
Convention, retail and other	$90,376	$106,860	-15.4%
Less - promotional allowances	-$92,305	-$97,693	-5.5%
Net Revenue	+$1,092,238	+$1,513,613	-27.8%
Operating expenses	-$907,179	-$1,136,782	-20.2%
Operating income	$185,059	$376,831	-50.9%
Operating income/Net Revenue	16.9%	24.9%	-31.9%

Sands: Three Months Ended	March 31,	March 31,	Change
Revenues:	2015	2014
Casino	$2,376,688	$3,372,065	-29.5%
Rooms	$371,413	$400,222	-7.2%
Food and beverage	$189,411	$202,787	-6.6%
Mall	$127,814	$109,031	17.2%
Convention, retail and other	$134,137	$137,376	-2.4%
Less - promotional allowances	-$187,841	-$211,097	-11.0%
Net Revenue	+$3,011,622	$+4,010,384	-24.9%
Operating expenses	-$2,300,507	-$2,866,559	-19.7%
Operating income	$711,115	$1,143,825	-37.8%
Operating income/Net Revenue	23.6%	28.5%	-17.2%

Above, the "Net Revenue" is shown as a gross revenue, with expenses then being deducted to come up with an Operating income. As mentioned to you some place, the use of "Net Revenue" continues to confuse us older school folks. Operating income is I assume before taxes.....and I think Sands only has one very large casino in Singapore. Onward we go, Manila will take some of the Macau and Singapore luster as they still allow VIP aka banked junkets.


http://news.asiaone.com/news/singapore/man-denies-cheating-manila-casino

Quote: NokTang

As mentioned to you some place, the use of "Net Revenue" continues to confuse us older school folks.

I am following the terminology used in press release of both companies. (see line #2 in press release)
http://investor.sands.com/ir-home/press-releases/news-details/2015/Las-Vegas-Sands-Reports-First-Quarter-2015-Results/default.aspx

Quote: NokTang

Operating income is I assume before taxes....

And before interest expenses. Wynn is reporting a net loss.

Quote: NokTang

. Onward we go, Manila will take some of the Macau and Singapore luster as they still allow VIP aka banked junkets.

Any idea how City of Dreams Manila did in it's first quarter?


City of Dreams Manila
City of Dreams Macau

Quote: pacomartin

Any idea how City of Dreams Manila did in it's first quarter?

No idea. I seriously doubt you will get true and correct accounting out of the Philippines. As the Ambassador said "it's a basket case".

Quote: pacomartin

Well this is the 12th straight month of YoY drop in gaming revenue. The last 12 months were $36.6 billion, down from $48.4 billion, a drop of nearly $12 billion in the last year.

Now it is 13th straight month of YoY drop in gaming revenue.
The last 12 months were $36.1 billion, down from $49.3 billion, a drop of over $13 billion in the last year


A punishing loss that doesn't look as if it will change.

Quote: pacomartin

Now it is 13th straight month of YoY drop in gaming revenue.
The last 12 months were $36.1 billion, down from $49.3 billion, a drop of over $13 billion in the last year


A punishing loss that doesn't look as if it will change.

Maybe the lesson here, and AC is still the lesson in Vegas.

Vegas grew to its size and volume of commerce over decades.

(or maybe not, but sure is one difference between the 3)

Well, I'm not an expert (and I think Paco is) but the Macau situation is a long way from a free market. Their government's interference in junkets, gambler access, currency movement, permitting, probably a hundred other factors, are combining to severely constrain that region. They now have the facilities to entertain enormous amounts of both domestic tourism and foreign travelers and make insane amounts of money. They've proved that in the initial ramp-up. But for what I would consider non-capitalistic reasons, they're denying most of their people access and making it incredibly difficult for the rest. So it seems inevitable that the YoY numbers are going down given recent intervention in the business model.

So, if there were equal access, given the available facilities, the huge interest in gambling in the Asian market, and the extremely rapid rise in per person capital in China, then I would think we have not seen even the floor of what could be made there. Vegas is very conducive to maximum profitability, with gaming-friendly laws and politicians in place for decades, and China is the opposite, trending towards a more restrictive structure with each passing year. Totally a guess, but I think China could well just shut the whole thing down, regretting ever allowing it to be built because of the social disruption in their own country it represents.

With some of the breathless assertions of doom the thread gets incredibly silly at times. A series of YOY numbers that indicate stable to slightly increasing recent financial performance were just described by one here as a "fee fall!" Good grief.

Quote:

Mar 21,487 35,453 -39.4%
Apr 19,167 31,318 -38.8%
May 20,346 32,354 -37.1%

That three month series does NOT indicate a revenue trajectory in a state of continuous decline. It is a slight relative INCREASE in YOY terms over that three month period. Folks using sky is falling purple rhetoric have absolutely no idea how to evaluate the contextual significance of what they are looking at. These remain highly profitable properties within profitable enterprises, but less so when serving more of the mass market of the upper middle class in comparison to the earlier explosive growth in very high end business that was taking place prior to last year. The relative decline is from an extremely high peak. If I win a zillion, then win two zillion, then win "only" half a zillion, followed by another half a zillion, I am not sad, and will not find it necessary to be jumping out of any windows to cope with my grief. And earlier one individual opined that somehow this might make Boyd Gaming go broke. WTF?!?! Boyd Gaming has as much to do with it as does a taco stand in Cleveland: it has no connection to Macao whatsoever. None. Never has. Almost certainly never will.

Quote: rxwine

Maybe the lesson here, and AC is still the lesson in Vegas.

Vegas grew to its size and volume of commerce over decades.

(or maybe not, but sure is one difference between the 3)

No, it sure isn't. At all.

Some folks use statistics like a drunk uses a lightpost. For support rather than illumination.

Quote:

Chevy Chase: And now with tonight's commentary; Miss Emily Litella.
Emily Litella: Thank you, cheddar. What's all this talk about violins on tv? I think we need more violins and less of that loud rock music. And furthermore...
Chevy Chase: Uh, excuse me; Miss Litella. It's violence on TV, not violins.
Emily Litella: Oh. Never mind.

Quote: Ahigh

Some folks use statistics like a drunk uses a lightpost. For support rather than illumination.

Where did you get ahold of my picture anyway?
I'm older than that now, and that light post is no more.
Both facts are statistically normal.

Lowell Bergman, an investigative reporter working for PBS, has accused PBS of censoring a documentary about Macau. James Chanos, a hedge fund manager, was interviewed on camera in the documentary. Chanos was recently sued by Wynn for defamation. (Wynn lost the lawsuit.) Bergman alleges that PBS is worried about expensive slander lawsuits from Wynn and/or Adelson, so PBS has decided not to air the documentary.

The most explosive allegations in the film apparently have nothing to do with Chanos. The real battle between Bergman & PBS was about whether the documentary should include the unsubstantiated rumor that Wynn is involved with VIP high roller junkets organized by Charles Heung. (Heung has been linked to the Triads, a violent Chinese gang.) If Wynn knowingly does business with Heung, that would put the casino in violation of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. At a symposium on the campus of UC Berkeley, Chanos had hinted that it's impossible for any company to do business in Macau without violating the FCPA. His remarks in Berkeley were what launched the lawsuit.

Chanos' legal bills exceeded $420,000. If you were PBS, would you air the documentary?

Now, it is 20 months in a row of decreasing revenue. January revenue is back to level of 5 years ago.

January 2016 18,674 million patacas
January 2011 18,571 million patacas
January 2014 28,739 million patacas RECORD HIGH FOR JANUARY


Plans for Macau
Wynn Resorts is currently constructing Wynn Palace, an integrated resort containing a 1,700-room hotel, a performance lake, meeting space, a casino, a spa, retail offerings, and food-and-beverage outlets in the Cotai area of Macau. In July 2013, we signed a $2.6 billion guaranteed maximum price (GMP) contract for the project’s construction costs. The total project budget, including construction costs, capitalized interest, pre-opening expenses, land costs and financing fees, is approximately $4.1 billion. We expect to open our resort on Cotai in the first half of 2016. Total investment is $2.7 billion through June 30, 2015.

Mr. Adelson noted, "In Macao, we welcomed more than 16 million visits to our Macao property portfolio and delivered strong growth in the high-margin retail mall business. Notwithstanding a challenging environment in the VIP and premium mass gaming segments, we delivered $559.8 million in adjusted property EBITDA across our Macao property portfolio in the second quarter. We remain confident that our market-leading Cotai Strip properties, which will be complemented in the future by The Parisian Macao and the St. Regis tower at Sands Cotai Central, will continue to provide the economic benefits of diversification to Macao, help attract greater numbers of business and leisure travelers and provide an outstanding and diversified platform for growth in the years ahead."

Reporting on 22nd month of revenue drop for Macau.

Impossibly it seems as if it will keep up for two straight years.
February was down a mere -0.1%, so it looked like it may come to an end. But March went down -16.3% year over year.

Gaming Revenue for March 2016 was under 18,000 which hasn't happened since November 2010.

18,000 MOP million = $2.253 billion USD

I'm taking this more seriously now, because the 'comps' (the prior time periods used for comparative year-over-year rate of change) are now much more favorable, i.e. a much easier basis of comparison than before that should result in a bottoming out of revenue decline by now. I was thinking of looking for an entry point to consider buying back in to a couple of those with major Macau exposure, but now I'm not. I don't see existential threats to the fundamental viability of Wynn & LVS at these levels, but I'm not into the sport of falling knife catching, TYVM. Even when the knife is falling somewhat less quickly, but same direction.

IN RE: Chanos on Wynn (a few posts above but much earlier, last summer). For a 'documentary' one should certainly want more than the analysis information and interpretation of Jim Chanos. I'm familiar with and respect Chanos, he's been very successful in the past (though has had a very hard time more recently) and he's definitely no flake, and I do want to at least listen to him when he puts something in his crosshairs. But. He is exclusively a short side player, meaning he has a direct personal stake in seeing the price of things he's talking about going DOWN, the more the better and sooner not later, every bit as much as someone like Wynn has the opposite outcome at stake, and he'll naturally want to use whatever means he can to make that price decline happen when he's taken a position, for his own bottom line. That doesn't make him wrong, he's sometimes wrong but also often right in some things in the past, but it does make him precisely the same kind of source for information as asking Steve Wynn, for the same reason but in the opposite direction. Considerable corroboration that's not coming from Chanos' shop would be required if one is serious about a real news or documentary piece. Rather than a hit piece for which one can and should be sued up the ying-yang.

Quote: DrawingDead

I'm taking this more seriously now, because the 'comps' (the prior time periods used for comparative year-over-year rate of change) are now much more favorable, i.e. a much easier basis of comparison than before that should result in a bottoming out of revenue decline by now.

Jun 2013 - May 2013 | 383,441 MOP million = $48.0 billion (top 12 months)
Apr 2015 - Mar 2016 | 222,239 MOP million = $27.8 billion (most recent 12 months)
Mar 2015 - Feb 2016 | Nevada Statewide = $11.16 billion (most recent 12 months/ ALL NONRESTRICTED LOCATIONS )

I think you are saying that the probability of the next 12 months of gaming Revenue in Macau being lower than 222,239 MOP million are very low, I would agree. But all of these new casinos are going to open in that same time period.

Macau's location might be the reason for those revenues. Being close to Hongkong where all those tourist has easy access to Macau. But things will change this in the future since new Casino's has been building all over the region namely Singapore and Philippines.

Quote: DrawingDead

I'm taking this more seriously now, because the 'comps' (the prior time periods used for comparative year-over-year rate of change) are now much more favorable, i.e. a much easier basis of comparison than before that should result in a bottoming out of revenue decline by now.

Month #23 decline YoY by -9.5%.

Incredibly enough it looks like this could go round for a third year.

Quote: DrawingDead

IN RE: Chanos on Wynn (a few posts above but much earlier, last summer). For a 'documentary' one should certainly want more than the analysis information and interpretation of Jim Chanos. I'm familiar with and respect Chanos, he's been very successful in the past (though has had a very hard time more recently) and he's definitely no flake, and I do want to at least listen to him when he puts something in his crosshairs. But. He is exclusively a short side player, meaning he has a direct personal stake in seeing the price of things he's talking about going DOWN, the more the better and sooner not later, every bit as much as someone like Wynn has the opposite outcome at stake, and he'll naturally want to use whatever means he can to make that price decline happen when he's taken a position, for his own bottom line. That doesn't make him wrong, he's sometimes wrong but also often right in some things in the past, but it does make him precisely the same kind of source for information as asking Steve Wynn, for the same reason but in the opposite direction. Considerable corroboration that's not coming from Chanos' shop would be required if one is serious about a real news or documentary piece. Rather than a hit piece for which one can and should be sued up the ying-yang.

wow The first time I read the above paragraph I thought it is computer generated gibberish. I read it again very slowly, now I see it is not gibberish. Is it just me bad at reading English or there is something wrong with writing in such a style?

Quote: supergrass

wow (sic) The first time I read the above paragraph I thought it is (sic) computer generated gibberish. I read it again very slowly, now I see it is not gibberish. Is it just me bad (sic) at reading English or there is something wrong with writing in such a style?

Thank-you.

Quote: DrawingDead

Thank-you.

Hahaha. You so love being inscrutable.

He's right, of course: it's a constructive nightmare. Care to write TO us instead of AT us? It's an interesting post and topic. :)

I thought I might have been too clear in pointing out just a few of the numerous errors of grammar, basic English usage, and simple punctuation. "...(sic)..." But good, glad it wasn't so 'scrutable. And to be fair about that, I just looked at some other posts, and I think this may quite possibly have come from someone whose original language was not American English. If so, that puts a different light on it for me, and in that case I don't want to be cranky. When that's the situation, personally I'd rather be extra polite. More so than the usual garden variety forum dwellers.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Hahaha. You so love being inscrutable.

He's right, of course: it's a constructive nightmare. Care to write TO us instead of AT us? It's an interesting post and topic. :)

Well, no, as a matter of fact I don't necessarily want to do that. Sometimes I don't want to write a reply all that directly TO something. Which then becomes to someONE. Because then it becomes something that's read and felt by them as saying that 'YOU, individually and personally, are all wet because that thing you quoted from is flaky and not what you think it is.' And I don't want that. Except for sometimes (like if it happens to be someone who rhymes with "EB"). And not this time. And other times, it is because I'm REALLY not wanting to engage other folk too much in other ways for other reasons on a site like this, just the substance TYVM. It sometimes relates to the reasons the overwhelming majority of people I know who've looked at the forum because they're interested in the subject matter quickly decide they do not want to sign on to it. And I'll just leave that right there. I have absolutely no intention of engaging in further discussion with you about that here, B. Don't ask.

But just for you B3, if you think someone might actually care, enough to stick your neck out to tell me I ought to do it better, I'll mash that wordy post of mine into some cheese-whiz on a cracker. Here ya go:

The 'Jim' dude who is putting out stuff to anyone who'll print it saying the company did really bad stuff and might be in a whole bunch of big trouble, so everybody should be afraid to own the stock, is someone who makes money if he can get the stock to go down. That's what he does. He's good at it, and very famous for it. And it is not bad that there are people doing that. Some good can come from that. But his business is all about companies going down. And that's okay. It doesn't mean he's all wrong. But y'all should know that he's selling something. And when you* know he's selling something, you* should say so when you* pass it around.

That something is a lower price, for this company's stock, so he can make money. If the price of the company stock does fine, he loses money. Which is okay, he's not bad for doing that. But it is pretty important to know that when you* decide what you* think about what he says and how you* should tell other people about it. If you* are really interested in what he said, then you* should look into it from other guys & gals who don't get paid if they move the price. Just like you* should know if someone putting out stuff makes money on a higher price, instead.

How's that? Best I can do. Still no good? Sue me. It would get thrown back in my face if I made it that simple and direct in just about any place I've ever worked. But before you sue me, first you'll want to have most of the people I've worked with shot, since you'll surely hate their prose worse. And if you'll do the time, I'll pay for the shells.

*See what I did there. I addressed "you." Times nine. And if those smaller more simple words said to "you" make it sound like I'm calling you an imbecile, oh no, I'm not at all. Not the "you" that is you. It was another different "you." Not any "you" that's here. It is just for someone behind a tree over yonder named "Mr. You, Esq." that I said it like that.

Thanks, DD. Love your posts. Mean it. Still laughing. ..

Quote: pacomartin

Month #23 decline YoY by -9.5%.

Month #24 decline YoY by -9.6%.

Wynn report 1st Quarter 2015
Macau Operations In the first quarter of 2016, net revenues were $608.2 million, a 13.8% decrease from the $705.4 million generated in the first quarter of 2015.
Wynn Palace Project in Macau: The total project budget, including construction costs, capitalized interest, pre-opening expenses, land costs and financing fees, is approximately $4.2 billion. Wynn Resorts expects to open Wynn Palace in the third quarter of 2016.

Quote: pacomartin

Month #24 decline YoY by -9.6%.

Wynn report 1st Quarter 2015
Macau Operations In the first quarter of 2016, net revenues were $608.2 million, a 13.8% decrease from the $705.4 million generated in the first quarter of 2015.
Wynn Palace Project in Macau: The total project budget, including construction costs, capitalized interest, pre-opening expenses, land costs and financing fees, is approximately $4.2 billion. Wynn Resorts expects to open Wynn Palace in the third quarter of 2016.

With the global economy tilting up recently, do you believe that the Chinese government will eventually loosen their stranglehold on the flow of gambling junkets into Macau? It is difficult to believe that so much of the bubble was "dirty" money no longer available due to the campaign to wipe out corruption in the Politburo... or maybe not??

Quote: Ayecarumba

With the global economy tilting up recently, do you believe that the Chinese government will eventually loosen their stranglehold on the flow of gambling junkets into Macau?

After 26 months the downward trend is finally over. The following trend is in August monthly revenue in MoP
Aug MOP ................. YoY% Net%
2013 MOP$30,737
2014 MOP$28,876 -6.10% -6.1%
2015 MOP$18,623 -35.50% -39.4%
2016 MOP$18,836 1.10% -38.7%

MOP$18,836 ~ US$2.358 billion

Wynn Palace opening date was August 22, 2016, so that event may be responsible for the slight uptick.
The Parisian under construction by Las Vegas Sands will open on 13 September 2016.

I'm amazed by the speedy reporting. For Nevada August revenue numbers wouldn't be available for another month or more. And Macao involves more money and more of it from gambling than Las Vegas, as I'm sure you know.

Quote: pacomartin

After 26 months the downward trend is finally over. The following trend is in August monthly revenue in MoP
Aug MOP ................. YoY% Net%
2013 MOP$30,737
2014 MOP$28,876 -6.10% -6.1%
2015 MOP$18,623 -35.50% -39.4%
2016 MOP$18,836 1.10% -38.7%

MOP$18,836 ~ US$2.358 billion

Wynn Palace opening date was August 22, 2016, so that event may be responsible for the slight uptick.
The Parisian under construction by Las Vegas Sands will open on 13 September 2016.

What was the racetrack supposed to be? The hookers walking in circles in the lobby as I've seen on YouTube I presume.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

What was the racetrack supposed to be? The hookers walking in circles in the lobby as I've seen on YouTube I presume.

Another difficult to grasp in English post. The racetrack is and I think always has been where you go to find hookers. They don't sit down because you are required to buy a drink if you sit.

On a related note, Manila development continues and will for sure hurt Macau. I don't know why the American companies don't go into Manila. It must be related to paying bribes being illegal for publicly listed companies?

Because Macau is very near to Hongkong it is not surprising to see their revenue to go higher. Hongkong has been flock by tourist all around the world as well as a premier business hub in Asia. Their is only one threat for in revenue and that is competition from neighbor countries like Singapore and the Philippines where they are positioning their country to be the Vegas of Asia.

With Macau turning around Sands is now selling their casino in Bethlehem PA to MGM resorts.

Quote: pacomartin

With Macau turning around Sands is now selling their casino in Bethlehem PA to MGM resorts.

Nice to see you again, paco! :-)