Do you think that the Virus will bankrupt MGM or Wynn?
Poll
 | 4 votes (16%) | ||
| | 21 votes (84%) |
25 members have voted
I personally think no because they have cash in the bank plus credit lines to tap. There have been BK closures in the past but they were, by and large, in AC with mismanagement at the heart of the problem.
reopen nobody will be flocking to the
casinos for a long time and most will
have to shut down or scale back
drastically. Vegas is done, I think. It
was on the way out anyway..
The psychological impact will keep people
from traveling to be in crowded locations.
Think of the convention industry, shows
etc...
This may be good for online legalization
nation wide which is what I want.
If you are an advantage player, I'm not sure that's what you would want. In the short term there might be some good opportunities,however, in a long run I actually don't think it will be good, especially if it closes down all the offshore places and we have far less brick-and-mortar casinos.Quote: rainmanIt will be very tough for LV to ride this out.
The psychological impact will keep people
from traveling to be in crowded locations.
Think of the convention industry, shows
etc...
This may be good for online legalization
nation wide which is what I want.
Online that can track every aspect of what you're doing.
I am guessing the cruise industry will be affected far more. Maybe down 15-20% going forward.
Airlines down a few percent.
Foreign travel down a few percent.
Travel to New York City? Down 10%?
Quote: SOOPOOI believe the new post coronavirus 'normal' will hurt the casinos specifically. The general overall unsanitary nature will be magnified. I think business will be down maybe 5-10% as a result of the public's changed attitudes.
I am guessing the cruise industry will be affected far more. Maybe down 15-20% going forward.
Airlines down a few percent.
Foreign travel down a few percent.
Travel to New York City? Down 10%?
Restaurants, bars and dance clubs that had normally been packed with wall to wall people... any entertainment or sport that involved a densely packed crowd
Also wonder how it affects barber shops, hair salons, nail salons , massages , businesses that rely on the complete opposite of social distancing. Obviously we all need to get our hair cut , but will anything be done differently forever in these places?
Quote: AxelWolfIf you are an advantage player, I'm not sure that's what you would want. In the short term there might be some good opportunities,however, in a long run I actually don't think it will be good, especially if it closes down all the offshore places and we have far less brick-and-mortar casinos.
Online that can track every aspect of what you're doing.
It was a very narrow comment, I am a one trick
pony I need as many online stores as I can get.
Quote: WizardI've been buying casino stock through this, while the prices are cheap. A year from now this will seem like ancient history.
It's my belief that this epidemic is just a
a little shake that causes the quake.
IF people start defaulting on their
mortgages look out we will all be in
hell, unless your liquid of coarse.
Why do you think Vegas was on the way out?Quote: EvenBobNot right away but eventually. When they
reopen nobody will be flocking to the
casinos for a long time and most will
have to shut down or scale back
drastically. Vegas is done, I think. It
was on the way out anyway..
Who knows, maybe they will have to nix 6/5 blackjack for a while
Quote: Ace2Why do you think Vegas was on the way out?
Vegas is like the old amusement parks, Coney
Island and such. They were huge in the first
50 years of the 20th century, as were travelling
carnivals. TV and panoramic color movies put
them out of business. Cheap entertainment
at home or close to home.
Indian casinos are doing that to Vegas. So Vegas
depends on foreigners to keep them going. But
that's a fickle demographic, all it takes is something
like this to keep them away in droves. I remember
Vegas in the 70's and 80's, very few foreigners.
Now it's all you see on the Strip it seems like. If
Vegas loses them they're doomed. I have no
desire to ever go there again. Why would I.
This cannot continue on indefinitely. There is no “safe” return back to normal. The new normal will have risks.
MGM....by selling several properties and paying off $4 billion in debt has enough cash to weather the storm.
Quote: EvenBobVegas is like the old amusement parks, Coney
Island and such. They were huge in the first
50 years of the 20th century, as were travelling
carnivals. TV and panoramic color movies put
them out of business. Cheap entertainment
at home or close to home.
Indian casinos are doing that to Vegas. So Vegas
depends on foreigners to keep them going. But
that's a fickle demographic, all it takes is something
like this to keep them away in droves. I remember
Vegas in the 70's and 80's, very few foreigners.
Now it's all you see on the Strip it seems like. If
Vegas loses them they're doomed. I have no
desire to ever go there again. Why would I.
I don’t know. I’ve been to casinos on all inhabited continents, Macau and Monaco included, and there is no place that remotely compares to Vegas IMO. There are some Indian casinos near my home...nice facilities but I rarely go as it’s just not the same atmosphere. And they don’t have Craps.
I don’t see online gaming ever taking out land casinos. Just like we still have movie theaters despite having TV forever and Netflix etc.
Cost of travel is so low these days that nearly anyone can afford a trip to LV. I’m sure that back in the day only the wealthy flew out to Vegas . Time will tell
Quote: KeyserVegas has been fading. Before the Chinese Coronavirus, California casinos during the week were busier than Vegas on the weekends.
Well, I'm not going to say it can't happen. Sometimes things can last a hundred years or more and finally die out.
Any recommendations?Quote: WizardI've been buying casino stock through this, while the prices are cheap. A year from now this will seem like ancient history.
Quote: KeyserVegas had some crowds, but they're smaller and they're not gambling much.
Seems the conventions will carry the city, the shows, the food. But the fees and smoking got to go.
Originally Weekends carried the city. Then the privately built exhibition center carried Tuesdays and Wednesdays.Quote: DeMangoSeems the conventions will carry the city, the shows, the food. But the fees and smoking got to go.
For a long time Vegas competed with Gambling Everywhere and became a town of hip, trendy gourmands and showgoers who merely "dabbled" in gambling.
Post-Corona gambling will boom nationwide, but Vegas will merely return to a stately grandeur. The top tier casinos will rebound but the middle tier will focus on clubs and shows, there will be shakeout in Locals Gambling and only the standouts will share in a boom.
#CoronavirusTariff
What's that about the value of retail space? It's gonna sink lower than oil soon.
Quote: SOOPOOI believe the new post coronavirus 'normal' will hurt the casinos specifically. The general overall unsanitary nature will be magnified. I think business will be down maybe 5-10% as a result of the public's changed attitudes.
I am guessing the cruise industry will be affected far more. Maybe down 15-20% going forward.
Airlines down a few percent.
Foreign travel down a few percent.
Travel to New York City? Down 10%?
I am not sure where I fall on this. The younger crowd will come through relatively unscathed albeit without much bankroll. The only remotely similar event to fall back on historically would be Spanish Flu which was followed by the roaring (19)20s and then the Great Depression.
Our memories are short, and this year will be a once in 100 year event- from which we will have learned a lot and adapted. Making the next pandemic supposedly much easier to handle. I'm optimistically siding with once there is a treatment and vaccine people will feel much safer and desperate for human contact and entertainment.
Of course, I am wrong many times every day (just ask my wife) so who knows.
I think some of the sanitary measures will remain. The buffets will reopen without "food ambassadors", but with cough barriers and distributed seating galore. Hand sanitizer stations will remain prominent but un-policed.Quote: SOOPOOI believe the new post coronavirus 'normal' will hurt the casinos specifically. The general overall unsanitary nature will be magnified. I think business will be down maybe 5-10% as a result of the public's changed attitudes.
Many small towns in America had health Officers during the Spanish Flu who seized businesses and enforced quarantines and otherwise effected a major change our American way of life. The towns returned to normal.
Quote: WizardI've been buying casino stock through this, while the prices are cheap. A year from now this will seem like ancient history.
Time for a bet? I'll bet that March 2021 business down at least 5% from March 2019? In Las Vegas. I think someone, probably Paco, always posts monthly gambling revenue?
Quote: WizardI've been buying casino stock through this, while the prices are cheap. A year from now this will seem like ancient history.
I wonder if it might make sense to watch the insider trades on these. I looked at a few, (WYNN, MGM, BYD, LVS), and at this point the only recent activity seems to be buys. That's a pretty good indication that they are confident about the future. But who knows what might happen over time.
Quote: WizardI've been buying casino stock through this, while the prices are cheap. A year from now this will seem like ancient history.
I agree but would say do not buy what was in trouble before as it will be after. IMHO locals casinos will be back to normal much faster as Strip properties need to wait for people to want to travel, which will take longer. People are for sure burning vacation days to make it thru this. Even if we assume a May 1 opening 2020 is done for the Strip. Maybe NYE is normal.
The weak will have issues.
Quote: SOOPOOTime for a bet? I'll bet that March 2021 business down at least 5% from March 2019? In Las Vegas. I think someone, probably Paco, always posts monthly gambling revenue?
I'll take $50 on that if it is an open offer.
Quote: ChumpChange5 shoppers per 1000 square feet at WalMart, with more than half the store blocked off so they can't sell non-essential goods.
#CoronavirusTariff
What? They're blocking off the rest of the store. Okay, that's a bridge too far. (Only half serious)
Quote: TigerWuVegas will be back in full swing by the end of the Summer. By Fall, it will be like this never happened. The only evidence will be a blip in the revenue sheets.
I'll take some of whatever you are smoking.
Quote: billryanI'll take some of whatever you are smoking.
Vegas totally depends on people in
other countries cramming themselves
onto packed planes and then wandering
the Strip in tightly packed groups.
End of summer? Try end of 2022, if
ever.
Quote: billryanHousing in Vegas has been red hot and just last month it finally exceeded the 2007/8 highs. I'm thinking a 30 percent drop in the next year. I imagine Vegas will be hit the hardest of all the American cities.
If there is a big enough dip I may have to look into an investment property.
Quote: billryanHousing in Vegas has been red hot and just last month it finally exceeded the 2007/8 highs. I'm thinking a 30 percent drop in the next year. I imagine Vegas will be hit the hardest of all the American cities.
Florida should be interesting for housing. The way we're going, the old folks will die in droves. Me and Mom among them, probably. Hard to quarantine forever. I bet 15% or more of the houses are on the market by the end of the year, crashing the housing recovery that we finally had this past year.
Quote: AZDuffmanI'll take $50 on that if it is an open offer.
It's a bet. Two conditions.
1. You post whatever objective data from March 2019 that we can check after March 2021.
2. Since I make so many of these bets, you are responsible for reminding me if I owe you, or paying me if you owe me!
Deal?
Quote: SOOPOOIt's a bet. Two conditions.
1. You post whatever objective data from March 2019 that we can check after March 2021.
2. Since I make so many of these bets, you are responsible for reminding me if I owe you, or paying me if you owe me!
Deal?
I thought you were offering from 2020 to 2021? I will still take it though. I need help on who publishes total handle. I only get the sports handle on my podcast.
If I win I will probably just have you give it to the dog pound near me, if you want to do a charity feel free.
DEAL ACCEPTED.
Quote: AZDuffmanI thought you were offering from 2020 to 2021? I will still take it though. I need help on who publishes total handle. I only get the sports handle on my podcast.
If I win I will probably just have you give it to the dog pound near me, if you want to do a charity feel free.
DEAL ACCEPTED.
I picked 2019 because I think volume was already down in March 2020.
Quote: beachbumbabsFlorida should be interesting for housing. The way we're going, the old folks will die in droves. Me and Mom among them, probably. Hard to quarantine forever. I bet 15% or more of the houses are on the market by the end of the year, crashing the housing recovery that we finally had this past year.
Women seem to have it significantly less or easier than men (almost 50% less female deaths than male). So far it's like a lottery, we don't know what causes some people to have it so mildly or even completely asymptomatic and others going critical pretty fast.
I think the question at base is not wether Casino A or B fails, its will LV itself fail. To that end LV will survive, just like amusement-parks and hotels. But it will take time. IIRC Even Bob put forth 2022, (I appologize if mistaken) and I agree. Wizard plunking down money on that comeback is a smart, long term bet. Near term, a lotta financial pain, perhaps the proverbial and cliche roller-coaster. I put 1/2 my Benjamins on the smaller hotel REIT's that had until COVID-19 a good strong balance sheet (with other investments). These not in LV, but in larger cities USA and immediate surroundings. Ultimately, while not a sure bet, both are good bets IMHO.
Theres many ways to make and lose money in these times, each of us punts with our best knowlege. In some cases patience is the path to success. In some cases there IS a good quick buck worth taking. 50% in a week, or triple your money in three years with a 30% dividend. Each of us has their own favorite, or blend.
Personally, I would not bet against Las Vegas, but the financially stronger of the Casinos carry that burden.
Suited89
At times when the virus spikes again the lockdowns will return. Even in the lower infection rate periods there will still be social distancing in the casino. If its similar to Macau, we would see masks for everyone, every other seat empty, etc. Plus we have to consider issues in the places where tourists originate their potential trips.
I think that locals casinos and bars/restaurants will hang in during the pre-vaccine period. Any business that depends mostly on tourists is in for the fight of their business life. Unfortunately some won't make it.
Quote: ChumpChangeJust wait for this virus to get into the ventilation systems of every larger building and everybody comes down with some kind of lethal Legionnaires Disease COVID-19 type.
Wow, just wow!
Quote: EvenBobVegas totally depends on people in
other countries cramming themselves
onto packed planes and then wandering
the Strip in tightly packed groups.
End of summer? Try end of 2022, if
ever.
Quote: billryanI'll take some of whatever you are smoking.
I would bet money on this but I've said before I'm not a big prop bettor and I already have a few outstanding prop bets with members of the forum. I don't want any more.
Vegas will be fine by the end of the year. I bet 1000 Wizard bux on it.
