Poll
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32 votes (55.17%) | |||
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58 members have voted
I have two side bets for craps that went live in a casino. Until I get more placements, I would rather not mention the name of the casino.
As with any new bets, I was excited by the prospect of seeing real action. Here are the bets and the payouts.
1. Broad Bar 12 is a bet where you win if any doubles are rolled. 12 is a push and sevening out is a loss. It pays 7:6 and does not work on the come out roll. It is a novel place bet with the exact same odds and payout as a place6/8 bets.
2. Double D. The object of this is to roll all six possible doubles before sevening out. This bet does not work on the come out roll and as long as the shooter is shooting the dice, this cannot lose. For rolling 0-3 unique doubles, player loses. 4 unique double pays 10x, 5 unique pairs pays 50x, and all 6 unique pairs pays 250x.
Here is what happened on the first night as reported by a supervisor who informed me what happened on the game.
In the first two hours, the Double D bet got 50x paid out twice. Also, a shooter held the dice for an hour so the players won big. Even the field bet players were winning big. Players were also betting for the dealers.
The results were skewed by this anomaly. The same things that get the player excited can give the management heartburn. Twice the player had a chance to win the max payout on the Double D bet. The odd of this happening is 1 in 924 and even with 5 unique doubles hit; it is still only 1 in 7 chance of it happening.
The first night did not go well for the house so it did not go well for me. Hope they open the game this weekend again. Will keep you updated.
As to the poll question, I would refrain from making either bet untl I know the house edge.
This casino has three craps side bets. Firebet, small/tall/all or nothing, and Double D and Broad Bet. Will find out which bets players flock to, because they have a choice. All table will not be opened all the time. When the table with Double D is closed, I am hoping the craps players asked to have it opened. Then I will know for sure that I have a hit.
Quote: CrapsForeverThe Double D is something I will definitely be interested in playing. I tend to throw lots of doubles; so this is the bet for me. Seems a lot easier than hitting a firebet. What is the house edge on Double D compared to Firebet?
The Wizard does the math analysis for this Wizard Of Odds site for any game that goes live. The odd of hitting the max on the firebet is about 6500 to 1. The odds of hitting Double D is about 1000 to 1. The exact number is 924 to 1.
For rolling double, the Broad Bar 12 is a good bet too. Rolling a double except a 12 pay 7:6 and cannot lose with a softway roll.
I'd probably play the Double D bet for the same reason I like the Fire Bet: It's a single small bet that is active for the duration of the shooter's turn.
Good luck with it!
Quote: AceCrAAckersThe Wizard does the math analysis for this Wizard Of Odds site for any game that goes live. The odd of hitting the max on the firebet is about 6500 to 1. The odds of hitting Double D is about 1000 to 1. The exact number is 924 to 1.
For rolling double, the Broad Bar 12 is a good bet too. Rolling a double except a 12 pay 7:6 and cannot lose with a softway roll.
Thanks for the feedback. The Broad Bar 12 is cool but I need higher odds than 7:6 on sidebets. The Double D is a winner!!!
I'm going to assume this casino is in Las Vegas. Are there any Craps side bets apart from the Firebet available in Atlantic City/Pennsylvania? From my research, it looks like Craps sidebets are only in Las Vegas and Mississippi. I've never seen the All, Tall, Small bet in Atlantic City or Pennsylvania. Is it available in any East Coast Casino?
Quote: AceCrAAckersGoing solo is so much more difficult because I do not have connections like the large distributors. I cannot call DTG and have him place a game..
I know all about going alone :-)! Persistency is the key to getting in front of the DTG's eventually.
I'd probably bet it for curiosity sake. Double-D is more interesting to me as an alternative to the fire-bet or All Small/Tall bets. But I quite like those as well.
First, I hope the casino is following the rules. You say the bet is off on the come out roll. That should also mean they should not count ANY unique double that do roll on the come out roll.Quote: AceCrAAckersHello forum.
In the first two hours, the Double D bet got 50x paid out twice. Also, a shooter held the dice for an hour so the players won big. Even the field bet players were winning big. Players were also betting for the dealers.
The results were skewed by this anomaly. The same things that get the player excited can give the management heartburn. Twice the player had a chance to win the max payout on the Double D bet.
How do you get the 1 in 7 for 5 unique doubles per shooter?Quote: AceCrAAckersThe odd of this happening is 1 in 924 and even with 5 unique doubles hit; it is still only 1 in 7 chance of it happening.
A real quick simulation shows it should be closer to something like 1 in 160 shooters.
Or is there something else I am missing?
added: Thanks for the explanation in your below post. I need to understand what I read better.
My sim results looks close to miplet's excellent Excel data.
number of unique doubles per shooter | 1 in |
---|---|
0 | 2.0 |
1 | 3.7 |
2 | 7.3 |
3 | 16.4 |
4 | 44.2 |
5 | 152.6 |
6 | 923.5 |
The all, tall or small bets is a per shooter bet but will lose on a 7 winner.
The DD bet not losing on a 7 winner is a nice twist.
Players will like that as long as they understand that when a unique double rolls on the come out roll it is not to be counted.
Excellent!
Back to cleaning the pool.
Quote: CrapsForever... What is the house edge on Double D compared to Firebet?
opens ups Excel
14.7% if its to 1
17.7% if its for 1
Any winner 1 in 33
4 doubles 1 in 44
5 doubles 1 in 154
6 doubles 1 in 924
Quote: mipletopens ups Excel
14.7% if its to 1
17.7% if its for 1
Any winner 1 in 33
4 doubles 1 in 44
5 doubles 1 in 154
6 doubles 1 in 924
Good job miplet. The house edge is 14.72% because it to 1. Chances of making 5 unique doubles and rolling to make the sixth double is 1 in 7 provided you are at this point.
As for the Broad Bar 12 bet, it is NOT a one roll bet, it is a place bet.
Quote: ParadigmI know all about going alone :-)! Persistency is the key to getting in front of the DTG's eventually.
I have had almost no luck getting a meeting with DTG's. I wanted to pitch them my Ace CrAAckers game but it was nearly impossible. So I changed tactics and decided to create a side bets because it is easier to explain to them than a new game idea.
If I invented craps and explained to DTG this game, I wouldn't last 30 seconds. Try explaining to them that they need 2 dealers, 1 stickman, and a boxman. Special equipment/ table that take up 4 times more floor space than a bj table, and there are over 100 different bets that could be made on this game. Payouts vary also, commissions, lay bets etc... it would have been impossible.
I am hoping that this game will be my ticket to meet some DTG's. If I am lucky, after 10 placements, and building some repertoire, I am hoping 1 in 10 DTG will give me a shot at the Ace CrAAcker game.
Paradigm, what game did you come up with?
Quote: AceCrAAckersParadigm, what game did you come up with?
Easy Over Under.....going through a re-work right now based on feedback received via a trial last May/June
Quote: AceCrAAckersAs for the Broad Bar 12 bet, it is NOT a one roll bet, it is a place bet.
This would be a nice bet to offer in lieu of the now-outlawed Big-6/-8 on AC tables and on Bally's tables. Just make it even-money (EV = -9.1%).
Quote: 7crapsHow do you get the 1 in 7 for 5 unique doubles per shooter?
Before the first double, there are six ways which count toward your goal (1&1, 2&2, 3&3, 4&4, 5&5 and 6&6) and six ways of the Seven against you, a total of 12 deciding ways. So your chance of rolling some hardway that's helpful is 6 out of 12. Once you roll any double, that one doesn't help you anymore, but the six Seven ways all still act against you, so your chance of making a second meaningful hardway is now only 5 out of 11, then only 4 out of 10, etc., until you get five different ("unique") hardways behind you, whereupon you're at 1 out of 7. Just to illustrate,
Probability of every distinct hardway roll before any Seven roll = (6/12) x (5/11) x (4/10) x (3/9) x (2/8) x (1/7) = 1/924.
Quote: ParadigmEasy Over Under.....going through a re-work right now based on feedback received via a trial last May/June
I look forward to the finished product. My "fantasy casino" has two EOU tables, maybe three.
Quote: NowTheSerpentThis would be a nice bet to offer in lieu of the now-outlawed Big-6/-8 on AC tables and on Bally's tables. Just make it even-money (EV = -9.1%).
I thought about the big6/8 bet and the even money payout. Craps players hate this bet and like the place 6/8 bets, which is the most popular place bets, which pays 7:6.
Broad Bar 12 has the same odds and payout as a place 6/8 bets with the HE of 1.52%. If the payout was changes to even money the HE is 9.1% but I don't want to kill the action with such a high HE. Since the casino are fine with HE 1.52% for the place 6/8 bets, they should be fine with it for the Broad Bar 12 bet.
As for rolling the sixth unique double, my statement was it was 1 in 7 chance of this happening once you have already rolled 5 unique doubles. Chance of rolling all six unique doubles is 1 in 924.
I will be heading out to the casino today. I am hoping that they will have the table open and will post what happens. I hope these bets get lots of play without a shooter holding the dice for an hour.
If there were such a bet I would play it, assuming it is not in the "sucker" realm [not expecting 1.4% tho]
If it existed perhaps it could be placed in the DC box, so that there isnt resistance to the simplicity of sweeping the table
Quote: AceCrAAckersI thought about the big6/8 bet and the even money payout. Craps players hate this bet and like the place 6/8 bets, which is the most popular place bets, which pays 7:6.Quote: NowTheSerpentThis would be a nice bet to offer in lieu of the now-outlawed Big-6/-8 on AC tables and on Bally's tables. Just make it even-money (EV = -9.1%).
Broad Bar 12 has the same odds and payout as a place 6/8 bets with the HE of 1.52%. If the payout was changes to even money the HE is 9.1% but I don't want to kill the action with such a high HE.
Place-6/-8 odds are 7-to-6 because Place Bets are Put bets of $1 with $5 of Take-Odds behind them, whereas a self-booking impulse side bet such as Broad Bar 12, which (like Field and Hardways) is unrelated to the line, might be more effective at tempting gamblers if a $1 minimum were possible, facilitating an instant bet of any $ amount. Having to put up $6 on a "bleacher bet" might discourage action; they'd just make the Place bet instead. Then there's: Where do I put a zone on the baize for this bet? The Big-6/-8 spot just seems most natural.
Quote: AceCrAAckersAs for rolling the sixth unique double, my statement was it was 1 in 7 chance of this happening once you have already rolled 5 unique doubles. Chance of rolling all six unique doubles is 1 in 924.
That's what I got for your Double-D bet.
Just to show the logic to the curious:
Probability of no double before any "7" = (6/12) = 1/2
Probability of exactly 1 double before any "7" = (6/12) x (6/11) = 0.272727 = 3/11
Probability of exactly 2 doubles before any "7" = (6/12) x (5/11) x (6/10) = 0.136364 = 3/22
Probability of exactly 3 doubles before any "7" = (6/12) x (5/11) x (4/10) x (6/9) = 2/33
So, probability of loss = (1/2) + (3/11) + (3/22) + (2/33) = 32/33, Hence probability of any win is indeed 1/33.
Continuing,
Probability of exactly 4 doubles before any "7" = (6/12) x (5/11) x (4/10) x (3/9) x (6/8) = 1/44.
Probability of exactly 5 doubles before any "7" = (6/12) x (5/11) x (4/10) x (3/9) x (2/8) x (6/7) = 1/154.
So, EV = (11/44) + (51/154) + (251/924) - 1 = -0.147186.
Before I went to the casino that had the Double D and Broad Bets installed, I stopped by another casino to pitch them these side bets. Even though it was a cold call, I did get a meeting with the DTG and did a brief demo. DTG commented he liked it. I will follow-up this week and do a full presentation if they chose.
The casino that have the DD and Broad bets only open the craps table with it, on weekends(Friday/Saturday). It was not opened so I stayed another night hoping the game will be opened on Saturday. There were several requests to have the table opened but they chose not to open it. The casino was short staffed and craps is the hardest game to deal.
Here is the feedback I got from a player who won big the previous week. Even though they won on the DD bet twice at 50x, they liked the Broad bet better. Their reasoning was that it did not lose on the easy way and it covered all the hardways and the aces.
The table that had the small/tall/all or nothing was getting over ten times more play than the fire bets. If this casino is any indication, I see the days of fire bet numbered. Since this casino has all craps sidebets, it will be a good guage to see what the public wants. The pit with small/tall/all and the fire bet are opened all the time and the pit with DD and Broad only gets opened on weekend so it is not a fair fight but I am hoping the caliber of the game will overcome this.
Will keep the forum posted.
Quote: AceCrAAckersThe table that had the small/tall/all or nothing was getting over ten times more play than the fire bets. If this casino is any indication, I see the days of fire bet numbered.
Unless Caesars decides the Fire Bet isn't worth it, those days aren't numbered at all. In fact, as Caesars opens two new properties in Ohio in the next year, there will be even more places to play the Fire Bet. Personally, I don't play the side bet; I've never been on the table when all 6 have hit. But when the largest casino group jumps onto a bet, that guarantees almost 40 casinos will be offering the bet... that's not a bad number of installs.
Quote: TiltpoulUnless Caesars decides the Fire Bet isn't worth it, those days aren't numbered at all. In fact, as Caesars opens two new properties in Ohio in the next year, there will be even more places to play the Fire Bet. Personally, I don't play the side bet; I've never been on the table when all 6 have hit. But when the largest casino group jumps onto a bet, that guarantees almost 40 casinos will be offering the bet... that's not a bad number of installs.
I made the comment from purely economic point of view. In this casino the small/tall/all get over 10 times more play, and closer to 30 times, than the Fire Bet.
What I do not seeing is a table with both bets because
1. They are owned by different companies.
2. It will be harder for the dealers to deal.
3. The craps layout is crowed as it is; there aren't enough rooms for both bets.
Given the choices, I believe the casino will go with the game that will make them more money so I stand by the statement that the days of Fire Bet is numbered.
Aside note. All game developers who have reached this point have spent thousands of $ and even more time and sweat to get here. I believe that I have an edge over the competition because I came up with a new Place Bet that compliments the Double D side bet. Only having this game opened in a live casino can vindicate my belief. It has only been opened one night, and on that night players made Broad and Double D bets. The action was good and they returned to play again on that craps table.
My next course of action is to have these bets on greater than one casino. I was hoping to get actual data to push this game but the pace is too slow, especially since it is only opened on weekends. If any game developers have success meeting DTGs, I would appreciate if you would share with me what you did that worked.
Rather than go to the casino that had the game installed, I decided to go to several other casinos to pitch them these side bets. I went to 3 different casinos and here are the results.
When I arrived at casino x, I headed to the crap pit and asked to speak to the DTG. The floor person asked some basic information and I handed him a brochure which had all the information about the side bets, picture of the layout, odds etc. This gentleman was knowledgeable about craps and called over another supervisor. While I was waiting for the casino manager to come down to the floor, I was able to describe the side bets. Since I was at an empty craps table, I also explained to the dealer on that table and they were able to grasp the new bets right away. The dealers commented it was simple to implement.
Few minutes later, the casino manager and the pit manager came down. I handed them the brochure, the rack card, and Q and A to questions that Popcan issued on another post. Except for the part that had the math proof determining the house edge, it was easy reading and succinct. While I was explaining the bets, the pit manager did read the information from cover to cover. My impression was positive and I will follow up the lead next week. I spend about 20 minutes with these men and am very optimistic about how it went, given this was a cold call.
At casino Y, I asked to speak with the DTG. His title is also VP and I have talked to him about a year ago about Ace CrAAcker game. I was led to his secretary’s office and met a very nice lady. She told me that the VP was on vacation but offered to get in contact with a manager. The first manager was busy and she followed up by contacting someone else. She could have said that they are all busy and leave the information and go but she helped me talked to a real live person. Did do a face to face presentation. I stayed about 5 minutes and explained the bets to the manager. I gave one copy to the manager and he asked me he if could have another copy. I think this is a good sign.
At casino Z, I was directed to the high limit area. Once I got there, I asked to speak with the DTG. As the floor person was about to call him, he told me I lucked out because he was just outside this area speaking with the pit manager. I gave the DTG the information and gave him a brief description. He told me that they are in the process of installing the fire bet. He was being approached by yet another company with their side bet for craps. He told me that getting the fire bet has been about a 4 month process and they have not installed it yet. However he did leave the door open to get this game installed if I can show that it does better than fire bet or fire bet does not do as well as the casino hoped.
This is a learning process, marketing the game solo. Here are few things I took from this.
1. Have more brochures than you need. If you expect to hand out 10, make 30. It is better to have too much than not enough. I could have approached few more casinos if I had those.
2. Go to the casino at the end of the week (Friday, Saturday). You will usually find the DTG/VP/Managers working those days.
3. If you have giveaways like card protectors that I had made with IGD logo and markers that I made, bring plenty. Casino personnel like free gifts and having products with your company name on it helps keep you on their radar. I also gave away mouse pads with the same felt design as the game Ace CrAAckers before.
4. If you do not meet the DTG but get a chance to meet the secretary, it is just as good. The secretaries run the places.
Quote: AlanMendelsonI'd make your bets, and if you revealed where it's being played (and it's in the Las Vegas region) I would probably make a special trip there to play it.
Thanks! I live in the east coast. I am working on AC, PA, WV, and DE. Have not been to Vegas since G2E. Focusing on casinos which are geographically closer to where I live first. I will reveal the casino(s) which has it once I get few more placement but I have my reason for not mentioning it now. Will give details for my next trip, next week.
Quote: CrapsForeverAre there currently any Craps Side Bets listed publicly in East Coast Casinos?
The side bets out in the east coast are
Fire Bet
Small/Tall/all or nothing
Double D and Broad Bar 12 bets.
I have not seen anything else except one roll bet like over under 7 etc..
Quote: AceCrAAckersThe side bets out in the east coast are
Fire Bet
Small/Tall/all or nothing
Double D and Broad Bar 12 bets.
I have not seen anything else except one roll bet like over under 7 etc..
Interesting.
Quote: WizardHere is my write up on these bets. I welcome all comments and corrections.
I think the discussion of the Broad Bar 12 is incorrect : This table treats a any role that does not resolve the bet with a win or loss as a push. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 14.71%.
I think you mean 4.63%
The house edge is 1.52% for the Broad Bar 12 bet. It is the same odd and payout as the Place6/8 bets. I have not seen the HE for Place 6/8 as anything else other than 1.52%. If you count the push, the HE is 0.463%
Is this the same bet as in this postQuote: AceCrAAckersThe house edge is 14.71% for the Double D bet.
The house edge is 1.52% for the Broad Bar 12 bet. It is the same odd and payout as the Place6/8 bets. I have not seen the HE for Place 6/8 as anything else other than 1.52%. If you count the push, the HE is 0.463%
DIFFERENT DOUBLES
Looks like the pay table was changed along with the number of doubles needed.
First to the Wizard, thank you for having the analysis for these side bets on the Wizard of Odds site. That is a site that casino personnel trust to be accurate.
I went to every casino in AC that I did not visit the previous week. The directors of most casinos work a swing shift on Saturdays. They work from 4 p.m. till late 10-11 p.m. I stopped by several casinos between 1 and 2 p.m. only to be told that this.
Casino A, I met a supervisor and asked to speak with the DTG. I gave him the brochure and proceeded to explain the new bets. Explained the bet in one sentence and expounded on it for few minutes when I perked his interest. Said he will pass along the info.
Casino B, I found a manager who reassured me that he will pass along the info to the DTG/VP. I followed up at around 8 p.m. and was not able to get a hold of him. The first floor person did not know the name of this guy so I was directed to the security booth. When I asked the security personnel, he was not able to get this information from the operator and he called his supervisor. He supervisor came and asked what my business was. When I told him, he told me I needed to make an appointment and I couldn't just come unannounced. No s**t, why do you think I am here. When I asked for the name of the DTG, he said he was not at liberty to give out this information. The security supervisors were retarded and rather than waste any more time with him, I went back to the pit to find DTG. People said that they saw him earlier, but finding him was as elusive as finding the tooth fairy.
Casino C, I went to the high limit area to talk to the pit manager. She called his office and there were no answer. I wonder over to the craps area and talked with one of the suits to try calling the DTG for me. When he asked me what it was all about, I explained to him what I did. The gentleman smiled and said that he also had a single dealer craps game in the late 90's. As fellow game developers he gave me all the courtesy that this small fraternity has. He listened to my side bets and took my brochure with all the information. He called DTG office and make few more calls trying to get in contact with him. He told me he was off till next week. This saved me from making another trip for no reason. I like this guy. On my next trip to this casino, I will look for him first and have him call the DTG for me.
Casino D. My trip won't be complete if I didn't go to a casino where DTG is in a meeting. The supervisor first asked who I represented, before he called the office. He claimed the DTG was in a meeting. Translation, "You are not important enough for DTG to even listen to you." When I asked when he thought the meeting will end, he told me he did not know. Translation, “Go away and stop bothering them." What part of we are in a meeting do you not understand. There was nothing like come back in few hours, when schedule should be cleared up.
Casino E, I was able to get hold of a manager and she gave me contact information for the person I need to speak to about scheduling a meeting. She was professional and did everything right. Given that this was a cold call, I was looking to set up a meeting and this was the first step in the process.
Back to Casino A, I followed up from the earlier visit and went there late evening. When a suit got hold of him, I was told he was too busy to meet with me. This was a refreshingly honest answer. Rather than jerking me around with a lame story about a meeting, I got it straight.
Lastly, Casino F. I followed up at this casino. Since they come to work after 4 p.m., I stopped by late in the evening. I met a floor supervisor and asked him if I could speak with the DTG. He said that he saw him earlier. He spotted the DTG in the casino and offered to introduce him to me. Rather than just point to where he was, I got a formal introduction. I spent less than 30 seconds explaining my side bets. Talked to him for about 5 minutes and got his business card so I can follow up and have a formal meeting.
Overall, this trip was what I expected. Not much of a headway but I did move forward, of my ultimate goal of getting the side bets placed.
Status
I have couple promising leads and when this becomes more concretes, I will let the forum know.
The side bets did extremely well last night in Harrington Casino. As long as the casino does not have an hour long shooter, the math for the game should take care of itself.
It should take of itself even with any hour long roll of say 30 to 60 rolls.Quote: AceCrAAckersAs long as the casino does not have an hour long shooter, the math for the game should take care of itself.
IF I was a casino guy wanting to place more bets to my craps tables, I would shy away from these type of high variance side bets.
As a casino owner/manager, I would rather see a popular even money or 2 to 1 bet that had to do with the shooter.
Say even money that the shooter will get past 7 rolls before 7out.
Or a 2 to 1 payoff that the shooter can make it to 10 rolls before the 7out.
Quick and easy.
That way, the players that make a one unit bet on the pass and the side bet can not hurt a shifts bottom line.
But, I am not yet in that position and this is the age of table side bets.
is this "Broad Bar 12" with 1.52% house edge? (same as placing the 6/8)
if so, i'm surprised casinos would go thru the trouble/risk for such a low HE.
ie: changing the layout/teaching the dealers/etc
note: i like it and would probably play it
Ever get busted at st. Joe's with dice ?? I got detention for rubbers in my wallet. And not the kind
of rubbers that go on your feet.
Quote: buzzpaffAceCrAAckers
Ever get busted at st. Joe's with dice ?? I got detention for rubbers in my wallet. And not the kind
of rubbers that go on your feet.
When I was in HS I walked the straight and narrow. Got detention for wearing sneakers during school days. Violated the school dress code. They had rubbers when you were a kid? lol
I didn't expect to have a meeting but it was worth the drive so I can set up a formal meeting. To all game developers, it is very important to be able to explain your game in two sentences or less. That is about all the opening you have to perk their interest. If you cannot convey your game in 15 seconds, then you need to polish the game or presentation till you can.
For what it is worth, Harrington Casino is going to order a second table with these bets. I hope it won't be too long before they ask to install it on a third table.