Mobile gaming outside of a casino

As expected, the NGCB approves sports betting application for Iphone.

As you may know, the NGCB approved sports betting kiosks in pubs that previously were only licensed for slot machines.

As tablet computers become more and more widespread, it leads us to the possible future where most games that are currently played on a dedicated slot machine will be available to any device that is being operated within Nevada. Control on age of the player will have to be done by who can open an account.

I don't know how the state would control people who open accounts as fronts for underage gamblers. I suppose it will be handled in the same way that the state polices people who buy booze for underage people.

While I am certainly not predicting the demise of the slot machine, I would guess that the days of brick and mortar casinos will start to fade.

I know some people feel that it won't happen.

My futurecast is that mobile gaming will be widespread, but only for certain games. You will never replace craps with a touchscreen. In the same way, there will always be folks who enjoy the visceral stimulation of being in a casino. Perhaps most importantly, Ipods don't serve complimentary booze.

Quote: Ayecarumba

My futurecast is that mobile gaming will be widespread, but only for certain games. You will never replace craps with a touchscreen. In the same way, there will always be folks who enjoy the visceral stimulation of being in a casino. Perhaps most importantly, Ipods don't serve complimentary booze.

Granted.

But where will the growth be? Will the current crop of brick and mortar casinos be the same a decade from now, with all additional gaming on tablets and smart phones?

Alternatively, do you predict a future where the North Strip has no casinos (no Circus Circus, Riviera, and Stratosphere) and downtown continues to slip away. Where Fontainbleau and Sahara never re-open, and casino owners find it is enough to renovate the core casinos for the group that likes the tangible games.

A local pub could make an arrangement with an online company that they will serve free beers & snacks to people who bring in their I-Pads are are logged into that specific web-site. The pub could receive payment from the gaming company. You could mix the freebies with concept of using your own equipment.

The economics makes sense. The gaming company doesn't have to invest in bricks & mortar, and employees. They just pay out fees for food and beer.

I have so little interest in gambling outside of a casino... apart from some NFL/NHL sports bets, gambling online, or even in the small locals casino in BC interests me very little. I suspect this puts me in a minority of gamblers, but I'm also probably not the guy who really keeps the casino ticking over.

I feel the only way LV survives is as a destination for Entertainment, where gambling is part of that mix... but I don't hold out much long term hope for it to rebound entirely. In the next 20 years I expect to see LV have a smaller base of rooms and locations. I do see it will still be a centre for the worldwide casino industry....

Quote: thecesspit

I do see it will still be a centre for the worldwide casino industry....

I think when you read news reports from month to month (some are positive and some are negative) you have to look at the overall picture. The recovery in gaming revenue has been very anemic.

The Strip gaming is up only 8.9% from it's bottom in October of 2009 ($488 million), and only $106 million of that recovery comes from sources besides baccarat.
The Rest of NV is only up a fraction a percentage from it's low point.

Month	Strip $billions	Rest of NV $ billions	comment
Aug-11	$5.97	$4.63	current numbers
Apr-11	$5.76	$4.62	low point for rest of NV
Oct-09	$5.49	$4.90	low point for Strip
Oct-07	$6.95	$6.03	peak for both Strip and rest of NV

Since catering to baccarat players does not require extensive facilities, there is a little sign that there will be demand for a new casino in many many years. That's why I think mobile gaming will meet the future growth.

Granted at least NV is holding steady. NJ can only dream of holding steady.

Quote: Ayecarumba

Perhaps most importantly, Ipods don't serve complimentary booze.

This. I go to a lot of trouble and expense to fly across country and stay in a hotel for a week for that free $3 beer.

I do think the portable gaming will kill a lot of the smaller sports books, which are dying already to be replaced by kiosks.

A lot of people already forgo the expense of a trip to Vegas and travel to the local riverboat or reservation to get their fix. Are these the same people that will pick up an iPad instead? Or are they also looking for that casino experience, but closer to home. I don't think it will hurt Vegas that much because someone who would switch to a machine has already opted for the local casino.

Since the machine based games have much lower overhead, I expect to see 3:2 blackjack and other good odds in order for the machines to compete.

Quote: pacomartin

Granted.

But where will the growth be? Will the current crop of brick and mortar casinos be the same a decade from now, with all additional gaming on tablets and smart phones?

Alternatively, do you predict a future where the North Strip has no casinos (no Circus Circus, Riviera, and Stratosphere) and downtown continues to slip away. Where Fontainbleau and Sahara never re-open, and casino owners find it is enough to renovate the core casinos for the group that likes the tangible games.

A local pub could make an arrangement with an online company that they will serve free beers & snacks to people who bring in their I-Pads are are logged into that specific web-site. The pub could receive payment from the gaming company. You could mix the freebies with concept of using your own equipment.

The economics makes sense. The gaming company doesn't have to invest in bricks & mortar, and employees. They just pay out fees for food and beer.

Nevada will be the first state to re-introduce online poker. This will be the majority of the growth. Sports betting will have a much smaller (but still significant) following. I think these particular activities will succeed because the games have a high "skill" component. Games with fixed house edges will not succeed in the long run as folks get grinded down and out.

I don't see games other than poker and sports betting having the same kind of sucess, especially in Las Vegas. Why come to Las Vegas to do something you can do at or near your home? It's akin to living in Summerlin and going to the Strip to gamble. If locals won't drive a dozen miles because of the hassle, why would folks fly a thousand miles to pick at their IPad in their hotel room or coffeeshop? If they are going to come to Vegas, they will want all the bells, lights and whistles full size machines and tables offer. There is also the perception that "live" games (even slots) are more "fair" than online games. I don't think this will ever go away.

I predict the North Strip, including Eschelon, gets finished/redone. If anything, new builds should be more "resort" than "casino", in an attempt to offer more amenities to visitors. In the same way, gaming machines will get MORE immersive, (3-D, bigger screens, motion) as the need to differentiate them from the games available on personal devices steps up. An Ipad will never replace the fountains at Bellagio, the clubs at the Cosmopolitan, or the spa the Wynn. New builds will need to do all this and more.

As for Downtown, there will always be a place for niche concepts, (and Fleas who won't spring for a smartphone.) One of the properties should open the biggest Craps joint in the world. Two dozen tables might do it. They could market themselves as the industry leader, and the only choice for "real" players. With games spread from $1 -$200 to $100 - $60k, there would be no reason for players to go elsewhere.

I like the partnership idea, although I can't see the accounting working out unless dedicated machines in the pub are used. Are there regulations against rewarding increased play directly with alcohol (e.g., to prevent impaired players)? I can imagine folks "storing up" points for a year, then redeeming them for a whole bottle of champagne on New Year's Eve.

Quote: Ayecarumba

If locals won't drive a dozen miles because of the hassle, why would folks fly a thousand miles to pick at their IPad in their hotel room or coffeeshop? If they are going to come to Vegas, they will want all the bells, lights and whistles full size machines and tables offer. There is also the perception that "live" games (even slots) are more "fair" than online games. I don't think this will ever go away.

In the same way, gaming machines will get MORE immersive, (3-D, bigger screens, motion) as the need to differentiate them from the games available on personal devices steps up. An Ipad will never replace the fountains at Bellagio, the clubs at the Cosmopolitan, or the spa the Wynn. New builds will need to do all this and more.

I remain unconvinced. I think the needs you are talking about can be met simply by renovating restaurants, clubs, and ballrooms. The majority of slot machines in a casino are actually pretty plane jane machines: blackjack, simulations of roulette, and generic slots. While many of these will be replaced with high end machines that offer visceral thrills, the plane jane machines will drift to iPads.

The thrills from table games may be met by the current selection of 2,807 tables on the strip (half of which are blackjack tables). As blackjack fade in popularity, and people are just as happy to play a machine, the total number of tables may not go up. All the growth is on the 243 baccarat tables.

I could imagine a future in two decades where the numbers of visitors to Las Vegas are still hovering under 40 million per year. The rest of the demand being funneled into more prosaic online gaming, along with competing cities. I just don't see visitor numbers shooting up to 60 million a year as past growth seemed to indicate.

It's a lot easier to imagine putting $50 or $100 million into renovations, than $billions into new construction.


Year-Visitors
1970-6,787,650 (25,430 rooms)
1980-11,941,524 (45,815 rooms)
1990-20,954,420 (73,730 rooms)
2000-35,849,691 (124,270 rooms)
2007-39,196,761 (132,947 rooms)
2010-37,335,436 (148,935 rooms)

================================
The question does apply to a lot of things in our society, not just growth in Las Vegas. Take air travel. In 1980 it was 300 million psgrs, in 1990 it was 500 million, and in 2000 it was 700 million (rough numbers). Planners were saying the country would have to prepare for a billion plus travellers in the near future. We would have to replace San Diego, replace La Guardia, massive renovations on the infrastructure of other major airports, and on and on.

But in 2010 air passengers are still roughly 700 million (about the same as it was in 2000). Is this a 'lost decade' because of the twin pillars of 9-11 and the recession, or is it shades of the future? While the need to get on an airplane and see something, or to hug your grandchildren, or to personalize business is not going to go away, maybe future growth in the industry will be much closer to the population growth. Maybe the idea of burning fossil fuel, and paying for hotel rooms for business will become more and more passe.

It is shades of a digital future a la Max Headroom, where only the elite physically travel from place to place experiencing life in reality, and the rest of society is glued to devices.

Quote: pacomartin

I think when you read news reports from month to month (some are positive and some are negative) you have to look at the overall picture. The recovery in gaming revenue has been very anemic.

The Strip gaming is up only 8.9% from it's bottom in October of 2009 ($488 million), and only $106 million of that recovery comes from sources besides baccarat.
The Rest of NV is only up a fraction a percentage from it's low point.

Whats the revenue from companies that provide gaming equipment...? The side industries... machines, tables, processes, management systems etc?

How much of that is based in LV?

That's the area I was talking about, rather than the casino. The business-to-business areas.

Quote: pacomartin

It's a lot easier to imagine putting $50 or $100 million into renovations, than $billions into new construction.

Yes, but it will be the $4B resort that draws the millions back to the desert. Steve Wynn faced the same challenges pre-Mirage. The current down economy will eventually turn. When that happens, I think Boyd will be in a great position to capitalize on America's next wealth expansion. "Build it, and they will come."

Quote: Ayecarumba

Yes, but it will be the $4B resort that draws the millions back to the desert. Steve Wynn faced the same challenges pre-Mirage. The current down economy will eventually turn. When that happens, I think Boyd will be in a great position to capitalize on America's next wealth expansion. "Build it, and they will come."

I think we all know that Steve Wynn pulled off one of the greatest visionary movies in American business the late '80s by selling his Atlantic City casinos and investing back in the future of Las Vegas. But as luck would have it, American went through the one of the greatest true wealth building periods in all of human history for those 12 years. One of the fuels was developing that huge trade imbalance.

But starting in mid 2000 when Steve Wynn sold Mirage Resort to MGM, it is quite a different story. I think you might argue that every dime invested in Las Vegas from this date on would have be more valuable if it had been buried in a hole in the ground. I am talking about the acquisition of Ceasar's Inc., every casino built since that date, (Venezia addition to Venetian, THE hotel, Wynn Las Vegas, Wynn Encore, ... the whole raft). All the overpriced purchases of land, and buying old properties for the land underneath them.

Steve Wynn would be relatively worse off if he hadn't expanded into China.

So you have to be a legal resident of NV. How long
does it take to establish residency? Back in the old
divorce days, you had to live in NV 2 weeks to be
called a resident and qualify. Does that hold true
for the app? Can I set up residency and make bets
from another state?

Quote: EvenBob

So you have to be a legal resident of NV. How long
does it take to establish residency? Back in the old
divorce days, you had to live in NV 2 weeks to be
called a resident and qualify. Does that hold true
for the app? Can I set up residency and make bets
from another state?

No, these devices are restricted using the GPS to being inside state lines.

Quote: pacomartin

Steve Wynn would be relatively worse off if he hadn't expanded into China.

True, but having a couple billion in cash sitting in a bank, takes "relatively" out of my comprehension.

Eventually, the outflow of cash to Chine will slow. I think China will eventually have to reign in Macau, probably via crackdowns on organized crime and government corruption. This will lead to tight fiscal controls and burst the "no max" baccarat bubble.

America's exit from wars in the middle east, the steady reduction of personal debt, and pent up demand for luxury goods and experiences, will provide an opportunity for Las Vegas to return to it's former glory. Folks need the escape. The pace may be slow at first, but it will be growth nonetheless. Eventually, the process of building a newer and bigger (by tearing down and consolidating, as opposed to expanding the total number of rooms) Las Vegas, can continue.

Again, I just don't see personal devices taking huge amounts of business from the brick and motars. So much of the appeal of Vegas is handling the chips, seeing the lights flash and hearing the bells and whistles that you don't get with a smartphone or iPad. There's an excitement, an energy, that a portable device will never replicate (unless these devices can also be made to produce the imitation "coins dropping" sound).

I see so many pitfalls to work out with portable devices: password security, transaction privacy, W2-G generation, anti-spoofing measures, database hack/attack prevention, identity theft... it just seems like a lot of trouble. Large corporations that don't handle direct cash transactions are already victims of attacks/hacks on their customer data. I don't see how Nevada operators will be able to prevent every bad thing from happening to their customer data. There are going to be incidents, and when they happen, folks will quickly turn away from mobile gaming to avoid the risk and hassle.

Quote: pacomartin

No, these devices are restricted using the GPS to being inside state lines.

So you just have to know somebody who lives
in Vegas and place your bets thru them. Very
fast and efficient.

Quote: pacomartin

No, these devices are restricted using the GPS to being inside state lines.

Then I don't see much point to them beyond sports betting. If I have to travel to Vegas anyway, then I'm heading downstairs for the free beer and casino action rather than sit in my hotel room.