Poll

7 votes (36.84%)
12 votes (63.15%)

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MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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September 8th, 2010 at 3:35:24 PM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

but you're making it too hard for the shooter to nail BOTH a point hardways and to RE-NAIL the SAME point hardways. What are you going to pay on a win? 500:1?


No, it's not nearly that difficult. At odds of 1/89.1 of winning, you can pay somewhere between 80-to-1 and 85-to-1 and have a workable house edge.

My design goal was to have a cheer-inducing high-payout bet, but not too high so the odds couldn't justify a reasonable frequency. The important part, I think, is that you come out on a hard point every 9 comeouts. That's going to build a lot of excitement (I hope), and it will happen often - multiple times per hour. When the bet actually does win, it'll be after some cheering has already built up, hopefully causing a great roar of excitement. If that happens, the whole craps-playing experience should become more fun, and that's my goal.

As for intellectual property, Hard Pass is already patented, trademark-pending, and approved for play in both Nevada and Mississippi casinos. I've been too busy until recently to try selling it, so I wanted to get feedback from an interested group of people first. Not living in Las Vegas anymore makes it difficult.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Paigowdan
Paigowdan
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September 8th, 2010 at 3:46:42 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Paigowdan and I obviously disagree about the merits of the bet, but I do agree that if you should at least get a provisional patent on it if you wish to pursue selling it. I'm no lawyer, but if you didn't already do so, you may wish to somehow prove you posted the idea here and on what date. That could be used to invalidate a patent, should someone else see it here and try to steal it. If you're serious about selling it, I would recommend a full blown patent, but that debate has already been done. You might also consider just selling the idea to Paigowdown, since he likes it so much, and he is in the new casino games business.




"Hard Pass" is actually a very solid side-bet game idea for craps.

I would buy it if I had the cash, and offer him $10,000, thinking it could make at least $600K plus, or pitch it on his behalf (without a cut, because I LIKE it). Any new game is a 500:1 long shot, and a brilliant and sexy new game with BOTH a patent and a math report is a 30:1 long shot, so I'd offer $10K, for a $600K return, as a 60:1 pay back, if investing, because ANYTHING CAN GO WRONG. Like I said, it's a sharp hardways parlay bet, and is a good crap game side bet idea, much like a pass line parlay is - which is what the Fire bet is, - and hugely successful. If it hits, it's a LOT of gracious-living retirement income. If it doesn't, only the lawyers and mathematicians made their money up front, and we and our investors are broke, nothing to show for the idea.

But I would need to be SURE of:
1. The solidity of this provisional (patent pending) or Utility [full] patent for "IP Ownership" solidity,
2. See the crap table "layout artwork" that he's done to cleanly impliment the bet; it has to be easy to implemented, craps is hard enough to deal from a floor supervision point of view;
3. See the math reports, and perhaps review them with Charles Mousseau,
4. find out if M.E. had made arrangements or promises to other distributors,
5. etc,...

If M.E. has a Solid patent (to be reviewed by someone Like Richard Newman at Howard and Howard), and has a solid math report that can pass gaming, and has a clean layout design to easy implement the bet, then it wouldn't be too hard or too unreasonable to pitch the game at many casinos, - some of whom would say yes.

But Without ALL of the above being in place, it's a no-go.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
Paigowdan
Paigowdan
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September 8th, 2010 at 4:53:15 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist


As for intellectual property, Hard Pass is already patented, trademark-pending, and approved for play in both Nevada and Mississippi casinos. I've been too busy until recently to try selling it, so I wanted to get feedback from an interested group of people first. Not living in Las Vegas anymore makes it difficult.



M.E. - - did you already show this product to Gaming Network??
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
Switch
Switch
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September 8th, 2010 at 7:48:46 PM permalink
I think the bet has a chance of success as it's simple and offers attractive odds. Another factor to consider is the 'anticipation factor' which, in this bet, runs at 11% i.e. the probability of the bet passing the initial stage (4,6,8,10) to give players the feeling of being close to the payout. This may be too low although there are ways around it.

The other point, made by Mike, is whether it's too similar to the regular 'Hard Ways' bet. I'm not an avid craps player so I'm not good at judging that but to an occasional player, like me, it feels like taking the Hard Ways and adding an extra dimension with attractive payouts as a reward. If lots of throwers are throwing doubles then it could entice players to make the wager.

Without trying to 'sit on the fence' it's one of those bets that would probably have to be installed on the casino floor before the player acceptance % could be gauged.

One question, if the player wins then does the original bet stay put or does it get resolved and new betting required ?

Geoff
boymimbo
boymimbo
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September 8th, 2010 at 8:06:23 PM permalink
I wouldn't play it. It's the same as a hard-way parlay essentially.

For the hard six and 8, $1 pays $99 if it hits twice in a row ($1 -> $10 -> $100 and down).
For the hard four and 10, $1 pays $63 if it hits twice in a row ($1 -> $8 -> $64 and down).

Mind you, there is some uniqueness to the bet. If you let the bet push on a come out craps, yo, or 11.

First, there is a 4/24 chance that the come out will be a hardways.
1/4 is a hard 4 and hard 10
1/4 is a hard 6 and 8.

Odds of making the hard 4 and 10 are 1:9
Odds of making the hard 6 and 8 are 1:11

So you have a 1/6 x (1/4 x 1/9 x 2 + 1/4 x 1/11 x 2) = 1/6 x (2/36 + 2/44) = 1/108 + 1/132 = 1 / 59.4.
So you pay it at 50 to 1.

HA = (51 - 59.4) / 59.4 = 14.14 percent, a true sucker bet, and I think pulling a 50:1 dollar win doesn't make it seem too much of a long shot. On top of that, most non-math folk at the table couldn't figure out the odds.

If I were to market it, I would promo it at 90 for 1 and 60 for 1 to get people hooked, and then make the final payout 80 and 50 to 1 respectively. And leaving it off for the initial comeout roll appears to provide value.

You know what? For a buck, enough people would play it! And because it's active every comeout roll, it could be alot of fun. And given that the bet hits enough times, like once an hour, it would get some action.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
Paigowdan
Paigowdan
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September 8th, 2010 at 8:15:50 PM permalink
not really...from what I understand from MathExtremist,
The hard pass bet's first stage is that it gets set to the point, which could be one of four numbers: 2,4,6,8.
But you're not betting all of the hardways, you're making a one-unit bet that goes up to a hard number point.
Then if it hits again, making the point hardways, it pays out.
If that's the case, it's a bit like a come bet - let the dice decide...
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
cclub79
cclub79
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September 8th, 2010 at 8:25:56 PM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

not really...from what I understand from MathExtremist,
The hard pass bet's first stage is that it gets set to the point, which could be one of four numbers: 2,4,6,8.
But you're not betting all of the hardways, you're making a one-unit bet that goes up to a hard number point.
Then if it hits again, making the point hardways, it pays out.
If that's the case, it's a bit like a come bet - let the dice decide...



I think it also survives a 7 on the come-out, which a hard 4/6/8/10 wouldn't do, if you turned it on.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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September 8th, 2010 at 8:33:06 PM permalink
Quote: Switch

If lots of throwers are throwing doubles then it could entice players to make the wager.

Without trying to 'sit on the fence' it's one of those bets that would probably have to be installed on the casino floor before the player acceptance % could be gauged.

One question, if the player wins then does the original bet stay put or does it get resolved and new betting required ?

Geoff



Yes, that's what I'm hoping for. My goal is to get it onto the floor somewhere before the end of the year, preferably before G2E. I'd like to have those player acceptance numbers by early next year if possible.

As to the procedure, yes, I expect the default to be pay 80 (or 85) and the bet stays up just like the hardways or any other winning prop bet. You could take it down, but it'd stay up by default. The payout is also just like the hardways -- at the end, after everything else is done.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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September 8th, 2010 at 9:43:45 PM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

Mind you, there is some uniqueness to the bet. If you let the bet push on a come out craps, yo, or 11.

So you have a 1/6 x (1/4 x 1/9 x 2 + 1/4 x 1/11 x 2) = 1/6 x (2/36 + 2/44) = 1/108 + 1/132 = 1 / 59.4.
So you pay it at 50 to 1.

HA = (51 - 59.4) / 59.4 = 14.14 percent, a true sucker bet, and I think pulling a 50:1 dollar win doesn't make it seem too much of a long shot. On top of that, most non-math folk at the table couldn't figure out the odds.

You know what? For a buck, enough people would play it! And because it's active every comeout roll, it could be alot of fun. And given that the bet hits enough times, like once an hour, it would get some action.


Thanks for the feedback. I like the idea of using "no-action" on a come-out natural win/loss, but it does necessarily lower the payout. I'd suggest 55-to-1 instead of 50 for an edge of 5.7%, just because I'd hate to be responsible for a 14% sucker bet. I'd rather have everyone playing it and having fun at a reasonable price than have all the books say "don't play that bet, you'll drain your bankroll". Isn't that one of the gripes with other high-edge proprietary games?

But rather than shrinking the payout, what about raising the payout on the first after-come-out roll only? What if instead of paying 80-to-1 whenever it wins, it paid 250-to-1 if the hard point came on the very first roll after being established, with say a 25-1 payout otherwise. That hits the Wizard's criteria of having a high payout (assuming 250-1 is high enough) but also keeps the basic structure in place. That turns out to have an EV of -1.37%, less than the passline. On the other hand, would it be a letdown to "only" win 25-to-1 if the hard point doesn't repeat immediately?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Paigowdan
Paigowdan
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September 8th, 2010 at 10:49:19 PM permalink
MathExtremist,
be careful on the house edge for the type of bet: Rules of thumb for game designers, - to maintain table hold:

Guidelines:
On an even money "main bet", like the flat pass line, a BJ bet, etc, 1.5% to 4% HE is the preferred range.
On a low multi-payout bet like the Fortune bet, pairplus in three card poker, etc, 7% is the desired range;
on a high payout prop bet (2 and 12, hop bet, etc) 10% - 20% is the range;
on progressive type or high-payout bets (>50:1 to start, etc) like the Fire bet, then > 20% is the range.
-----------
Guidelines like this exist to prevent table dumping and to maintain a decent table hold ("profitability") for the house offering the game. A 2.5% HE on a 1:1 flat bet like blackjack is fine; a 2.5% HE on a high payout prop bet is a dumping disaster. They are different beasts.

A low edge on a 1:1 flat bet, the player wins frequently, but is often "Slowly Attrited" on his money, but...
A low edge on a high payout bet, the player can lock in profit ("Black chips to pocket"), locking in table loses. This is what happened on the first version of three card poker in Atlantic City way back when. It's original bonus table had the house edge of a flat bet, and the tables consistently lost. They were yanked, and Three Card had to be re-introduced in Mississippi a few years later...

On a busy crap game, a side bet that pays out too much can be hidden to some degree by all the other action on the table.
But a lot of places took out the fire bet when it dumped, (Sunset Station is a case in point), particularly because the Fire bet pays out jackpots when the table is already dumping via 5 or 6 consecutive pass line points hitting anyway, compounding the problem. The Hard Pass bet pays when the pass line is already paying, and when the hardways are paying too, so a lot of money is leaving the table, - and a lot of it to be locked in by players, locking in a loss for the house.

Players shouldn't bicker about a 200:1 payout if the house edge is 15% - IF it hits for them. If they bet a nickle and win a thousand, it's pretty much JUST the same to them if they had won $1,200 instead, but the extra $200 diference each time can save or hurt the house, when it is deciding to keep a new game, - or take it out!

Let's put it this way, concerning high payout bets: if you win the lottery for $6 million, would you say "I was really rooked because the house edge was %50!" or would you just smile and retire.

If I were a casino manager and saw a prop bet that starts at 25:1 and goes up - and has a house edge of less than 12%, I wouldn't put it on any of my tables, because I have light bills to pay. If I saw it less than 5%, like 1.37%, I'd pass out - and never consider it.

You can peruse the game sections for their math at www.wizardofodds.com for pretty much all the successful games out there, - and you will see that the guidelines above are strictly adhered to for each "type" of bet.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.

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