Inventors who have placed games in casinos,...

So, when you started your field trial, did you see any specific trend?

For example, it starts with low drop, high hold? Or with increasing or decreasing play on specific days?

Did these trends (if they occur) apply to each field trial you did in different properties?

My experiences are the early numbers are much higher than the sustained numbers because a lot of people will give the game a try once and might not play it again.

I think you went live on 6/8 at a local players type property, so you are only two weeks into the trial......what I can tell you is that the numbers are meaningless right now.

At such an early stage, what is important in my opinion is whether the majority of players that have tried the game have come back to play again? Or is it a "tried that game, it wasn't very exciting/engaging" so they aren't coming back to play again? That is when you have a problem.

If a game is resonating with players that try it and it hooks them enough to get them to come back and play it again, then the drop, hold and win numbers will take care of themselves given enough time (provided the game doesn't have a math analysis or AP problem).

I would say by the end of a month, your goal is to have at least half the players that are at the table be folks that have played the game before and are playing it again. If after 30 days you are still only attracting new players trying the game for the first time, you likely have a problem. Your deal staff will be able to tell you what is happening with player reactions, and that is the most important feedback/information you can get this early in the trial.

Some casinos don't even give u 30 days for the field trial and u could not do nothing about it.

If you agree to a trial at a casino that didn't guarantee you at least a 60 day trial, you set the game up for failure from the beginning.

When a casino decides to remove a game, it does not require the inventor / distributor to agree. A casino's obligation is to pay the leasing fee if any; if need to, it's easy for a casino to pay the fee and still remove the game.

First off, no one is getting paid for a new game at it's first installation which is what the OP is referring to when posting.

Second, my point is to have the discussion up front with TG Management that is putting in your game. If they aren't willing to commit to you that they will keep the game on the floor and operate if for X hours per week for 60 days min., they really aren't committed to giving the game a shot and you never should have placed the game in that property.

So the whole line of thought that you don't get 30 or 60 days for a game to prove itself really means you put your game in a property that wasn't committed to giving it a fair trial.

As a developer, particularly in the incubation period of a new game (say the first three placements), it is simply a mistake to trial the game in a property that won't guarantee to have the game open on their floor for a certain number of hours each week for a period of at least 60 days. If they won't agree to that, move on, you don't have a property that really wanted to try your game anyway.

Paradigm,

Thank you for the very thorough replies to the discussion here.

I have a 90 day agreement, and I fully understand that with today being 3 weeks, the numbers are very... skewed.

What's happening is that the game is holding. Like, really, really holding. And I am getting long play times from 20 - 30 percent of players, 1+ hours.

Now, as stated before, it's early to see if I am getting repeats. The property I am at has very high volume, but much of that volume is "weekend" traffic. We are more of a remote location, and people tend to come with less frequency than a "locals" casino.

That stated, I do get a lot of positive feedback. Obviously, no game is going to be popular with everyone, but 21Flip would appear to appeal to a solid number of players.

My concern is that absurdly high hold. The management team and I think that part of it might be low buyins, trying it out, and playing until they lose it. Basically, throwing in 60 - 100 bucks, playing 45 minutes, and then heading on. A certain level of that is to be expected, because people want to try it out for the novelty.

There's also those players who come back several times within their trip. Buy-in 100 bucks 3 different times.

What I want to know is what red flags to look out for. What are indicators of a game having long-term term non-viability? I know that games with high holds can be one indication you are crushing people, and who wants to play a game they never win on? But the flip side is that there is constant feedback from a positive perspective. One lady called it "the birth-child of Pai Gow and Blackjack", because she played for so long on her money.

This game creation business is nerve-racking.

I like the "half repeat players" metric, btw.

I will talk to the analysis guy, and see if we can pull that data... How many players played on 2 or more trips?

I know nothing about analyzing these metrics, but this in particular caught my eye:

Quote: 21Flip

There's also those players who come back several times within their trip. Buy-in 100 bucks 3 different times.

Players like it enough to bust out repeatedly? Sounds good... as long as they come back on their next trip.

I know nothing about analyzing these metrics, but this in particular caught my eye:

Quote: 21Flip

There's also those players who come back several times within their trip. Buy-in 100 bucks 3 different times.

Players like it enough to bust out repeatedly? Sounds good... as long as they come back on their next trip.

What is the house edge on 21Flip & how many hands per hour are you seeing as a player? Do you see any players leaving as net winners? Has the table had days where the hold was 10% or less? You definitely can't consistently crush all the players......players need to feel like they can win.

Quote: Paradigm

What is the house edge on 21Flip & how many hands per hour are you seeing as a player? Do you see any players leaving as net winners? Has the table had days where the hold was 10% or less? You definitely can't consistently crush all the players......players need to feel like they can win.

Assuming perfect play: 2.593%

Pays	Probability	Return	variance
99	0.000039656	0.003925924	0.388870104
98	0.000305556	0.029944482	2.936112461
97	0.000518309	0.050275953	4.879375311
13	0.011629883	0.151188475	1.973299191
4	0.041068735	0.164274941	0.665647283
3	0.094312186	0.282936559	0.86354723
2	0.184615385	0.369230769	0.757735351
1	0.049230769	0.049230769	0.051817164
0	0.227752640	0	0.000153155
-2	0.098301219	-0.196602438	0.383074454
-3	0.238565377	-0.715696131	2.110130185
-4	0.053660286	-0.214641143	0.847468577
Total	1	-0.025931839	15.85723047

2.6%, as Miplet shows.

In 3 weeks, there have been 3 days with sub-10% hold. One very small loss day, two very small win days.

The "odd" element is the high hold percentage. I actually have "strategy" cards printed and on the table for players, showing the perfect strategy. Think the cards you can buy in the gift shop for bj.

The game is averaging 55% hold, normally ranging between 40 and 70 percent. Again, short sample size, but still.

Did U get the drop numbers? If the drop is low, there %'s are insignificant.

Quote: UCivan

Did U get the drop numbers? If the drop is low, there %'s are insignificant.

That's an interesting point. I guess you have to qualify what a low drop is. Would you compare that against the drop for other established games?

If so, then my drop is low - new game up against 3CP, MS Stud, LIR, etc.

Now, drop has been slowly improving, week to week.


And thank you all for the thoughts. One of my biggest challenges is that this is my first experience with rollout of a game, and I am very ignorant of what to expect "trend"-wise.

I don't know if there even ARE trends to watch for. I appreciate the comment regarding percentage of players being repeats. Any other similar ideas are greatly appreciated. :-)

Some casinos will let you know if the drop is $300 or $500 per day. That is low. Some will tell you the drop is 30% of 3CP or alike. They don;t like to give out the exact numbers. That could be low too.

On one of the earlier threads, a casino operator said a typical BJ table's drop is $3,000 per day. If you only get 10-20% of the BJ drop (or $300 to $600, or 3-5 players in one full day), then the drop would be considered low.

Oh, lord, this place would have a heart attack if any game had a drop in hundreds of dollars.

I do have access to dollar amounts, but I am not at liberty to disclose actual figures, only percentages.

My game is running 20-30% less drop than established games. Weekdays show the lower drop moreso than weekends, as traffic patterns here are very "tourist" dependent. We are in a relatively remote area, and our strongest market is Atlanta Metro, 2.5-3.5 hours away. So, "day-trip" players are significantly smaller than our "spend the weekend" crowd.

21Flip is definitely profitable, just a bit behind pace with other games. I personally attribute it to being new - it's going to take time for it to be a game people come looking for.

My purpose in this question is what to look out for, since you guys have a wealth of experience.

Thank you all again for your help.

Remember, I have zero experience with this, but this statement is very significant and encouraging, to me at least:

Quote: 21Flip

Now, drop has been slowly improving, week to week.

Maybe I'm oversimplifying, but that says that you've got repeat customers, and/or positive word is spreading about the game.

Quote: 21Flip

Oh, lord, this place would have a heart attack if any game had a drop in hundreds of dollars.

I do have access to dollar amounts, but I am not at liberty to disclose actual figures, only percentages.

My game is running 20-30% less drop than established games. Weekdays show the lower drop moreso than weekends, as traffic patterns here are very "tourist" dependent. We are in a relatively remote area, and our strongest market is Atlanta Metro, 2.5-3.5 hours away. So, "day-trip" players are significantly smaller than our "spend the weekend" crowd.

21Flip is definitely profitable, just a bit behind pace with other games. I personally attribute it to being new - it's going to take time for it to be a game people come looking for.

My purpose in this question is what to look out for, since you guys have a wealth of experience.

Thank you all again for your help.

21Flip, Is your game holding up in the casino? How are the numbers now?

Saw your logo at the Raving's, good luck.